Good find. Seems that Microsoft is willing to let Minecraft be used with other sorts of 'glasses' be they Augmented Reality or Virtual Reality. I wonder which sort (AR vs. VR) are best for Minecraft?
Do you know if Oculus has come out with a 'stand alone' verson of Rift or do you still need to be 'tethered' to a PC?
Do you have the costs for the retail versions of Oculus Rift and Hololens as I didn't know Microsoft had set a price yet?
I think your high IQ prevented you from understanding the concepts being presented here.
1) We do not know if HIMX will bill for the LCOS in the month of manufacture/delivery. There is a possibility they do........but even an April release will mean the parts start getting delivered at least 60 days ahead of time for product (Hololens in this case) assembly.
2) We do not know if the billing terms are net 30, 45 or 60 days although it would be booked as accounts receivable as soon as the LCOS displays are shipped (again started at least 60 days ahead of release date).
3) HIMX share price will react on projections which are given at the prior quarter's Conference Call.........and not so much with the actual reporting. This is why stocks react to actual reports as they are compared to projections which are many times guided by the company's management (plus, refer to the adage "buy the rumor and sell the news").
4) The bogey here is how much HIMX will say due to Non-Disclosure Agreements as they may guide revenued but not state that it is LCOS related.......or perhaps say their projections include LCOS but not break it out specifically (basically what they did by using "inflction point" but not giving a number).
Again, when Wu spoke of the 'inflection point', I took it as a reference to manufacturing activity......which may or may not result in near immediate revenue/earnings (or do they go into inventory for later delivery?). Again, I am fine with some delay on shipping as I trust the Wu's to have a high degree of confidence of manufacturing now for future sales.
I wrote previously on this MB about the use of inflection point in the 2Q 2015 Investor's presentation which included:
+ Slide 16 on LCOS, last line: "Expected to hit inflection point in 2015"
+ Slide 18 on CMOS/Imgine Sensors, last two lines: "Anticipate inflection point in 2015 to gear up for mass pilot production shipments for HMD light guide"
As for getting a Hololens and SDK, these are generally not restrictive and offered to nearly anyone who reigsters and wants one as those requesting one have to pay (I think it is $3,000) to cover the costs. Sometimes a requestor or requesting company needs to be certified but generally these are not restrictive. Including companies wanting more than one Hololens device, I bet the number of paying requess are less than 1,000 (and perhaps less than 500). But, as you are paying the cost and potentially performing a service for Microsoft (developing uses for Hololens), I don't see where they will be restrictive. One could go to the Microsoft site and start the sign up process to see how restrictive it is.
Now, Wu did discuss increases in AMEOLD drivers and TDDI, but he did not use 'inflection point' in the Investor's presentation.
As for Jeb, it is all about guidance which comes 3 months ahead of actual reports.........so any sales in 1Q 2015 would be guided in Feb and sales in 2Q 2015 will be guided in May........if not sooner as they can comment generally on future activity.........just like they did this past CC when they spoke of a "inflection point".
It has been a while since this plant expansion capacity was dicussed......and then it was in round numbers. I will need to go back to the various conference calls where this was discussed.......and I don't believe they gave any numbers in the 2Q 2015 CC and that is was an earlier CC (perhaps even a 2014 CC)..
From memory, I think they had once taked about perhaps 1 million per month........but it has been a while since this was discussed.......and even then, it was just round number conjecture on Wu's part as it would hvae to be based upon longer term customer needs. But, the current fab plant capacity constraints are why I think these are being manufactured now as they wouldn't be able to 'keep up' with demand on a real time basis (and again those 200 techs they hired have to be doing something).
I would think the more immediate questions would be:
+ How soon after manufacture would HIMX be able to claim revenue (i.e. would these sit in inventory waiting for the Hololens fab to begin). Note that Wu was talking about activity and not necessarily revenue when he mentioned inflection point. As such, I don't doubt they get paid for these.......but when??? They may not get the revenue until 1Q 2016 for the units they are fabbing today.........or perhaps MSFT is willing to pay monthly for those manufactured each month for them????
Then, the bigger question would be whether HIMX can contract out the fab of these without losing IP or quality......or if their plant expansion and fabricating these are an absolute necessisity as contracting out saves lots of capital and such.
Many are making fun of 'inflection point' in the 2Q 2015 Conference Call & Investor's presentation as it pertains to LCOS & WLO's. I hope the below helps clear up a few things & stimulate some debate.
First, the Wu's are very ethical & correct with their guidance & comments. So, I would not be discounting his use of this term or its meaning.
Second, as evidence of the inflection point coming as stated, keep in mind that HIMX added ~200 technicians this summer from job fairs. Why do you think these people were hired...and what do you suppose they are doing? I say they are connected to the LCOS/WLO 'inflection point' and are working the existing fab plant.
As further evidence, recall:
+ the plant can make ~200,000 to 300,00 of these per month (use 250,000 as average)
+ Hololens will use 2 LCOS displays per unit
+ Estimate that Microsoft may want ~1 million of these Hololen devices ready for sale when they are released
= This means 2 million LCOS displays....and thus 8 months of fabrication prior to the release
Now, keep in mind that Wu stated the inflection point lets guess at September as the starting month. So, that mean ~1 million of these displays will be ready by year end and it would take through April 2016 to have the full 2 million completed such that 1 million Hololens units can be made available for sale.
Note that this does not include LCOS for Google or other uses....which would be in addition to my math above. Note also that generally the hardware is mostly fixed before the SDK's are issued as there are hardware protocols (API's, etc.) which are critical to software development.
As for the release date, I have no idea...but they could be released before many new games are completed as there are ~50 million users of Minecraft and that game is ready for Hololens now.
glhsken & I have previously done estimates on EPS but for now just think 1 million at $150/device (total all components) & 35% net margin ($0.305 EPS for 172 million shares).
I generally agree but why the nearly 10 cent discount in share price........on such a large block of shares?
Further, why was such a large rebalancing needed today........as this is not typical. I do sometimes see larger blocks and realize it is generally rebalancing.......but it is usually at the market price and not at a discount. That is what stood out to me.......and made me think it might have been share accumulated during the day for a pre-arranged sale........but I am guessing here.
See these after hours trades; especially the 104,263 share trade and the 15,300 share trade.
I can't believe that someone with this many shares put in a 'market order' which was taken advantage of. I suspect these are the MM's 'balancing/squaring' books after a hard day of making a market in GNW..........or were accumulated for an arranged sale.
16:37 $ 5.50 High 854
16:10 $ 5.4066 Low 15,300
16:10 $ 5.50 135
16:03 $ 5.4066 104,263
Yes, there is a difference between Yahoo and Stockcharts in the way they calculate and display the 50 DMA and 200 DMA. I am not sure what it is............but it could be tied to the dividend and 'corrected' share price.
Eihter that or someone has a problem calculating moving averages........or someone is counting weekends????
Regardless, this is close and there is a difference between the charts these two sites show.
Genworth working with Goldman:
From Bloomberg on April 2, 2015:
Genworth Financial Inc., the insurer weighing a breakup after steep losses on policies covering long-term medical care, is seeking buyers for a life and annuity unit, according to people familiar with the matter.
The firm is working with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on a sale of Genworth Life and Annuity Insurance Co., or GLAIC, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public.
Genworth will consider selling GLAIC in parts if it can’t find a buyer for the entire unit, two of the people said.
In a sale, GLAIC would fetch a discount to its year-end capital and surplus of about $2.1 billion, one person said. Capital and surplus represents the difference between the value of an insurer’s assets and liabilities.
From The Street on May 12, 2015:
Monday's announcement is the first of several steps expected over the next 12 months, including the sale of the remaining 52% Australian stake, Devine stated in his report. Genworth is also shopping its U.S. life and annuity business and a "lifestyle protection" unit principally based in Europe.
Goldman Sachs is advising on the life and annuity unit sales, according to a banker not involved in the deal. Bloomberg reported on Goldman's involvement last month. A Goldman Sachs spokesman declined comment.
Keep in mind that just a short time ago GNW announced they were working with Goldman on various scenarios. I iminage that the last two moves (pulled one deal, then this latest deal) had to have been impacted by Goldman.
Sometimes one has to look beyond percentages as the difference between 75% and even 125% is not great when the EPS is at current levels versus what it is when 2016 EPS is $0.55 as expected by BoA/ML (and then ~$1.10 in 2017). So, HIMX could borrow from the future to keep from cutting the dividend by a bunch.
Note that there is also something like $12.3 million left over from a $25 million stock buyback passed several years ago and only around 50% implemented. With $172 million shares, that $12.3 million represents a bit over $0.07/share.
Having written this, I think the over riding consideration will be capital needs for the fab plant expansion and then whether HIMX wants to take on net debt to finance this.
But, HIMX has cut the dividend when the business declined in the 2010/11/12 timeframe and then raised it back up quickly with increased EPS.
This dividend data is all on the HIMX website.......and they have cut it.........and they have sometimes paid over 75% of prior year's EPS.
To me, the bigger thoughts are:
+ would be the tax benefits of the dividend (thus, why pay out more than 100% of prior year's EPS)
+ the dividend does serve somehat as a bonus for stock holding employees
+ how does the need for capital funding of their own fab plant expansion impact the dividend
+ would stronger 1Q and 2Q 2015 motivate HIMX to pay out a bit more and then moderate the 2017 dividend
Announce Ex-dividend date Amount per ADS
May 11, 2015 Jun 24, 2015 US $0.30
Jun 9, 2014 Jul 9, 2014 US $0.27
Jun 17, 2013 Jul 17, 2013 US $0.25
Jun 11, 2012 Jul 11, 2012 US $0.063
Jun 3, 2011 Jul 6, 2011 US $0.12
May 20, 2010 Aug 4, 2010 US $0.25
May 19, 2009 Jun 18, 2009 US $0.30
May 27, 2008 Jun 12, 2008 US $0.35
Aug 15, 2007 Oct 3, 2007 US $0.20
First off, see insurance company GNW which "is perhaps the most undervalued stock on the NYSE". It is on my watch list and had a share price around 20% of book value.
But, that aside, I agree that MXL is well undervalued as I bought in here about a month ago and am pleased with the revenue and earnings guidance. I especially like the guidance of similar ($95 million) revenue for the generally seasonally lower 4Q as they will have in 3Q.
But, what MXL really needs to do is become GAAP profitable and not just non-GAAP profitable. This means getting the full takeover implemented and any remaining goodwill written off.
Having written that, I do see MXL getting to the lowest of the price targets ($15) before the end of the year and then closer to $17 or more by mid-2016.
I owned SWKS, NXPI, TQNT & RFMD from probably two years ago to early summer (but sold TQMT & RFMD last Dec before they merged into QRVO). I did very well as I also had options (bought calls & sold puts). That was a slam dunk as going to 4G/LTE was a move up in radios & filters by a factor of 5+. I follow them and see where they are down from their highs. Of the bunch, SWKS is probably the better buy as they always deliver and their valuations are not that high. NXPI has a lot of debt but probably will do fine. QRVO is a bit squirrly and probably a carryover from TQNT which was also squirlly.
Look at GILD as the valuation is also lower and still has a few easier valuations........as does MXL.
On MU, you need to look out 6+ months and their new products will do well as will more and more SSD's and higher memory in smartphones. The next 6 months will be all about getting positioned in MU which means scaring out some longs but the general trend will be to buy and be ready for the next leg up starting perhaps summer of 2016 when MU guides for their nonconventional 4Q 2016. But, their latest shrinkage will cut costs and improve yields and then their 3D will do well and summer of 2016 will include guidance for the rollout of XPoint.
MU throws off a lot of free cash and $15 is a fair valuation. There is not a lot of downside here........and certainly not worth selling here when a year from now will be higher and then much higher 2 years from now........at least for investors (vs. short term traders).
You seem to be trying hard to bash MU. Are you short? What price (high and low) will you be covering?
If you are like cheetah and not short while believing that MU is over-valued, why are you here?
If you don't short stocks and think MU is way over-valued........why are you here? Have you no hobbies or loverd ones? What are you buying as I am alwqys open to a good buy (for me, see MXL).
All who were negative on MU had lots of time to sell before earnings. So, I just don't see a lot of selling pressure here.......and Friday showed that there were more motivated buyers than sellers.
MU should be range bound for a while. I have no position but I do think that by mid-2017 to 2018 that MU could easily be 75% to 150% higher. So, I follow MU looking for the right time to buy (shares, calls or sell puts).
jctuttle really seems to be working hard here to bash MU. Is he a short.........or someone working day and night to save MU investors from themselves :-) ????
I agree that it is good to know what Zach's is writing as some people do trade on it....and was not 'beating up on you' for posting this bit of information as we should all want full disclosure of available data.
I was just posting my thoughts on the validity of Zach's for those who were not aware of how Zach's operates and probably should not have addressed it to you. Personally, I wouldn't even use Zach's for a quick comparison as again they average the good with the not as good and the old with the new....basically giving all equal weighting. Better to just compare the metrics themselves and focus on PEG's, P/B's, dividends, payout ratios, etc. for comparing stocks.....and then finding a good analyst report or two for improved insight. (And then time/determine your buy/sell pricing using the charts).
Again, this Zack's report came out on Thursday so it certainly could be part of the extreme retracement which took place that day.
Finally, jarhead could be partially correct in that it could have been timed to help someone(s) as some options were expiring on Friday as HIMX went over $8 on Wednesday and closed very close to $8.........which will also be a key option price going forward as we have seen.
An 8 P/E is for when the earnings are peaking as most know the earnings are cyclical and are not willing to pay 15 times peak earnings. MU can trade at a 15+ P/E on off peak earnings knowing that better times and earnings are coming.
Also, there were nearly 40 million shares which traded Thursday night and Friday which seems to say that $12 probably is not coming with the currently known information. In fact, many analysts who lowered their price targets on this new data lowered them to the lower and mid-$20's.
But, you can go ahead and sell short here if you want.
The Zack's report I read is just a sort of generic recipe type of report which does absolutely no research on HIMX. Zach's only looks at the various fundemental metrics on HIMX and then looks at the various price targets listed by the analysts who publish these.
If you look, you will not find Zacks listed as an analyst on the HIMX webiste listing of analysts who follow the company nor do you see them listed at Tipranks. Zack's doesn't send anyone to the Conference Calls or invdestor's conferences.
I did read the Zack's report and it reads like almost all other Zack's reports on other stocks.......again just giving historical fundemental metrics and then using the averages of published analysts. There is no detailed analysts of HIMX or their business including new products, customers, specific industry trends, etc. and certainly not like the recent indepth BoA/ML report authored by Danial Heyler.
Now, it is still good to know about this Zack's report as some do read and use them........and this one came out on Thursday; Oct 1st so perhaps that explains Thursday's retracement.
Bottom line is that I would not rely on Zack's for investment advice as they do no research of their own and average the analysts projections and price targets...........whereas some analysts are more informed than others and some are more updated than others........so averaging the good with the not so good and the new with the old is not a recipe for good data. Still, it is good to know about these as it does help explain market action........like Thursday's retracement.
The Street is another example of these sorts of generic reports.