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Himax Technologies, Inc. Message Board

haschultz1 172 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 minutes ago Member since: Apr 27, 2001
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  • Reply to

    HIMX Short Update; 1H Feb 2016

    by haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 4:55 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 25, 2016 5:59 AM Flag

    Jeb,

    You don't need to personally trade on moving averages.......but you should not ignore key moving average that others do focus and trade on like the 'Golden Cross'. Until you have a 'fool proof' set of indicators, you should consider what others consider.

    Do you feel somewhat responsible for perhaps talking people out of buying HIMX in the high $7 range and at $8 as they could now be up over 12%........as you repeat the tired old sentiment of but at $6 and sell at $8?

    On another note, the large March $8 Calls may actually expire in favor of the option buyers. So, those who have to turn over shares.......may want to buy back shares of HIMX after the March 18 expiration date.......or perhaps on weakness before that date.

    I also noted that the 13,000+ open $8 call contract volume is now only 10,825 contracts so some closed out their positions. So, is this closing of 2,100+ contracts bearish or bullish?

  • Reply to

    HIMX Short Update; 1H Feb 2016

    by haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 4:55 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 9:28 PM Flag

    Hey Jeb,

    For a supposed technician, you should have said that HIMX has been moving up well ever since the "Golden Cross'.........which occurred in Dec 2015 at around $7.20 (so around a 25% move from there). I know jarhead and I had been anticipating the 'Golden Cross'........and it seemed the shorts and/or MM's did their best to delay it by as much as possible.

    The 'Golden Cross' could also be the reason the shorts are now covering........as they really should be shorting as HIMX is well over $8......yet the short covering has accelerated in 1H February 2016.

  • Reply to

    kopin in Amazon Echo?

    by rctsb Feb 15, 2016 3:48 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 9:12 PM Flag

    Hey rctsb,

    I love my Amazon Echo and highly recommend it.........and I bought mine when they went on sale last November for $149.....and gave out several as Christmas gifts to people who also love them. They are especially great if you have Amazon Prime as that gets you all sorts of music on demand......and it is great sitting around with buddies trying to stump it and recall all those great songs from your life.

    But, the Echo has directional microphones which allows it to sense where your voice is coming from (there is a blue circle that lights up around the top of the Echo with a different color blue in the direction of your voice). As such, I don't know that it uses the KOPN whisper chip. Besides, the Echo has been out for a bit over a year now and I don't think KOPN's whisper chip has been out 15+ months when the design was done......and I don't think Amazon has redesigned the hardware of the Echo.

    The Echo is also great with keeping a 'To Do' list and a 'Shopping List' which you can pull up on your smartphone when you are out shopping. It interfaces with your Google calendar, reads you the sports scores and will look up anything from Wikipedia. It sets timers, alarms and gives the weather forecast for anywhere. It also interfaces with Phillips Hue smart (Wi-Fi) connected lights and turns them on/off on voice commands (uses IFTTT or If This Then That logic).

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 9:02 PM Flag

    Hey mv0000,

    I saw that about Guggenheim on their end of year 2015 report.......when KOPN closed the year at $2.72 share price. As these were all purchased in the 4Q 2015, Guggenheim probably paid a $1 or more for the shares than they are trading at today.

    Overall, the NASDAQ site shows ~216,000 more shares sold than purchased from existing holders in 4Q 2015........but then over 1 million net shares purchased from new holders (which Guggenheim would be) than those that sold out.

  • Seems another 275,000 more shares of KOPN were shorted during the first half of Feb 2016. This is a bit more than a day's volume lately and around 10% of the shares traded during the first half of Feb 2016.

    What are these people thinking........shorting KOPN coming into earnings? No doubt, the shorts have been correct thus far on KOPN as it has been declining for some time. But, one would think that they would cover going into earnings.........unless they are shorting based solely on the chart. But, who is that stupid.....shorting solely off the chart and not recognizing earnings announcement.......unless they have done some channel checks and think KOPN will have a poor report?????

    I don't have a position in KOPN but have been watching it for a possible buy. While shorts are stored up buying power, I will say there are damn few short squeezes that I see.......especially as compared to all those who predict and hope for them.

    What are the shorts thinking shorting this going into earnings?????

    2/15/2016. 1,872,029
    1/29/2016 1,597,288
    1/15/2016 1,685,344
    12/31/2015 1,489,579
    12/15/2015 1,362,447
    11/30/2015 1,370,551
    11/13/2015 1,510,554
    10/30/2015 1,587,981
    10/15/2015 1,935,363

  • Looks like many of the shorts are giving up on HIMX........right when they should be shorting if they still believed in the "buy at $6 and sell at $8" theme....which did work for some time (see 18 month chart).

    The shorts covered nearly 2.7 million shares in the first half of Feb 2016 after covering a bit over 1/2 million in the last half of Jan 2016 and a total of 2.9 million fewer shorts than the end of 2015. I suspect more are covering during the last half of Feb 2016.........including today when we closed at $9.20. You can see where most all the shorts from the past 6+ months are losing.

    Date: Shares Short. Stk Price
    2/12/2016 5,290,703 $7.90
    1/29/2016 7,970,786. $7.76
    1/15/2016 8,484,327. $6.79
    12/31/2015 8,181,479. $8.20
    12/15/2015 7,431,049. $7.79
    11/30/2015 8,744,820 $7.63
    11/13/2015 7,460,795. $6.39
    10/30/2015 6,574,758. $5.92
    10/15/2015 6,829,823
    9/30/2015 5,847,829
    9/15/2015 4,481,742
    8/31/2015 3,843,621
    8/14/2015 3,474,679

  • Reply to

    MXL Upcoming Conference Presentations - Bullish

    by haschultz1 Feb 22, 2016 1:44 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 2:36 PM Flag

    Actually, I have been watching MXL closely and may actually try to day/week trade some of my shares.......as there is enough volatility to make some steady cash if you can do it right. But, I won't part with my core holdings of MXL.

    It is interesting that after this latest 4Q 2015 beat and raise of 1Q 2016 that MXL did not take out the prior high of $17.50. The overall weak markets certainly impacted that..........but MXL still have a single digit forward P/E and great growth. Wall Street will want growth and MXL offers that at a lower P/E.

    All MXL needs to do is get their message out.......and these two conferences will certainly help that tremendously.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    Hey needsvswant,

    Good comments and summary of the larger HMD's announced. Keep in mind:

    + Intel wants into these portables very badly and will be working hard with all to develop processors (CPU, GPU and HIMX HPU) for the HMD so they do not need to be 'tethered' as that is an issue which will restrict sales and uses

    + Sony Morphius product will probably be connected to their later model PlayStations. As this is a larger installed base, their sales could be pretty good.

    + The really good early markets will be commercial uses in warehouse fulfillment, assembly, construction and then those who need reference documents (and perhaps police/fire) as cost and style are not big issues here as long as there is a compelling economic payback.

    + The consumer versions will be drive by gaming.......and then shared experience video content. The shared experience content (professional sports, concerts, travel, training and then amateur videos) could well be your smartphone and a Samsung head mounted holder.

  • Reply to

    BofA/Merrill Rating - Maybe Soon

    by andyousaywhat12 Feb 24, 2016 11:10 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 24, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    Hey anyousaywant12,

    Good comments especially about Dan Heyler leaving BoA/ML. I thought he did a really good report on HIMX before leaving........but I don't know where he went or why he left BoA/ML.

    The last times I looked, perhaps a week ago, the. HIMX website still shows BoA/ML following them but they do not name an analyst as they do with other investment firms which follow them. The 4Q 2015 Conference Call transcript on SA (from early Feb 2016) did not give a list of analysts attending the call as they sometimes do..........and there was no question asked by a BoA/ML analyst so I am not sure who they have assigned to HIMX.

    All looks well on HIMX with more and more positive comments by analysts and a really good conference call by HIMX and Mr. Wu. The things I like best were:

    + increasing number of tier one companies working with HIMX engineers (with tier one companies paying the cost) or product development

    + the comment stating that they $ content per device was probably well under-estimated by the analysts

    + bullish outlook

    Note that both the Northland and BoA/ML conferences will have the one-on-one meetings with analysts so we should hear something after they are completed. The current buying may be in part by companies who review the presentations in advance and then consider buying shares before the conferences to take advantage of any expected bump from the conferences by others buying.

  • Reply to

    8.75 64900 shres ASK

    by jose88fl Feb 22, 2016 12:41 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 22, 2016 2:03 PM Flag

    Interesting trading as they were able to knock HIMX down from $8.77 to $8.69 with very few shares.......after earring up the 64,900 shares at $8.75.

    Now, it is back up to $8.75 as it climbs its way back.

    I wonder is the MM's took it down to trigger some sell stops.......or otherwise accumulate more shares than it took to take it down and this was a bullish accumulation move.

    Finally, note that there are around 1.35 million shares associated with March 18, 2016 $8 Calls. The max pain point would obviously be under $8 on this option expiration Friday in March......but they may not be able to make it work this time.

  • Great news today on the two upcoming conferences......and I bet there is a lot of buying ahead of and after the conferences.

    MXL's recent Jan 2016 Presentation which will probably form the basis of their new upcoming presentations on 2-March (Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom in San Francisco) and 14-March (Roth in Orange County, CA).

    This should help get the word out about MXL and the stock should rally going into these conferences (smart firms do research and try to buy ahead of potential bump from conference) and then coming out of the conferences (from firms being impressed).

    And, there is much to be impressed about including:

    + very attractive financial metrics (low forward P/E of 9.0, very low PEG of 0.63, good balance sheet ($1.78/share cash with no debt), history of great acquisitions, etc.)

    + Growth, growth, growth proven and coming.......which is becoming even more rare on Wall Street

    + Ownership by insiders (&%) and several new 5% owners being announced (Blackrock, Elk Creek and Vanguard) although former large holder, Soros, sold ~40% of his stake in 4Q 2015 (possibly to help finance Hillary/Bernie and Dems in 2016 elections :-).....but there is much more net institutional buying than selling

    + FCC hearing last week (and initial ruling) to open TV set top boxes from just cable/satellite TV providers (would love to own mine as rental is over $150/year and cost is probably around $250 or so depending upon hard drive size.....but new ones could include cloud storage).

  • Reply to

    VIRTUAL REALITY AND FACEBOOK

    by homerunmandan Feb 22, 2016 1:07 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 22, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    Very interesting move by Facebook and Zuckerberg who you would think would want people to buy the Oculus Rift owned by Facebook.

    So, do these positive remarks on the Samsung device mean that Facebook and Zuckerberg are more interested in eyeballs and content, via Facebook site, than in who manufactures the hardware device? No doubt, Facebook has to be somewhat concerned about its move into hardware (Oculus Rift) as that is a competitive market.........while they may be positioning themselves for users sharing video content where they will probably compete with Google's YouTube and ????

    So, I am a bit surprised about the positive comments by Facebook and Zuckerberg on a Samsung device.

  • Reply to

    8.75 64900 shres ASK

    by jose88fl Feb 22, 2016 12:41 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 22, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    Hey Jose88fl,

    The buys nibbled away at this until it was around 35,000 shares.........and then those 35,000 shares were purchased within a few seconds. I am not sure it if was one or two very large buys or a bunch of smaller buys......but they went fast (so I suspect one or more large buys).

  • Reply to

    MXL Impact from FCC Set-Top Box Ruling

    by haschultz1 Feb 19, 2016 11:34 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 19, 2016 11:42 AM Flag

    More on the article:

    Technology allows it, the industry at one point proposed something similar to it and the consumers deserve a break and the choice," Wheeler said at Thursday's FCC meeting.

    The proposal has set off a frenzied lobbying battle pitting a tech industry eager to tap into the lucrative market against cable and TV companies, which could lose billions of dollars in rental fees for set-top boxes. Many of those industry providers spoke out against the measure after the vote Thursday.

    "While consumers are embracing an apps-based approach that offers a variety of content on more than 450 devices, the FCC has chosen to go down a path that threatens the very competition and innovation that has led to this vibrant marketplace," said Bob Quinn, AT&T's senior vice president of federal regulatory.

    Stanton Dodge, general counsel of Dish Network Corp, said: "It is really not clear to us that any new regulation is needed to encourage innovation and in fact would actually hinder it."

    The FCC says 99 percent of U.S. customers now must get their boxes from their cable companies, and they pay on average $231 a year to lease the devices.

    The commission has said opening the set-top box market to alternatives such as a smart TV or tablet would help lower prices for consumers, noting that set-top box rental fees have risen 185 percent since 1994.

    The cable companies say the video marketplace is already evolving as more customers replace traditional pay TV services with streaming Internet video.

    Underscoring the fierce industry battle and the FCC's concerns, the agency on Tuesday abruptly canceled a Twitter town hall where it was slated to detail the proposal and its impact on minority and independent programmers.

    An FCC spokeswoman said the Sunshine Act prohibits outside parties from lobbying it on a pending item during the week before a full commission vote, and said the town hall would be rescheduled after the proposal was voted on by the commission and released..

  • Anyone else read the Seeking Alpha article on MXL by Darspal S. Mann?

    It is a decent overview with numbers........but I didn't really get anything new from it. I did comment that it was missing the recent SEC Form 13 filings showing some new 5+% owners and Soros reducing their stake.

    I also asked about the recent FCC ruling on set-top boxes.

  • Any guesses on how the FCC hearings and ruling will impact MXL? I would imagine it would be positive as it should stimulate demand......at least in the short term. I know I would prefer to own my set-top box as the annual rental fee is a larger percentage of the cost of the box and their lifetime would be several years. This could also stimulate the cable/satellite providers to lower their fees.....again stimulating some demand from customers.

    Thu Feb 18, 2016
    FCC approves proposal to boost TV set-top box competition
    WASHINGTON | BY CLARECE POLKE. REUTERS

    The FCC approved on Thursday a proposal to let consumers swap pricey cable boxes for cheaper devices and apps, a change that would boost competition in the $20 billion television set-top box market while delivering a blow to major cable companies.

    The new rule, unveiled by FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler in January, would allow customers to obtain video services from providers such as Alphabet Inc, Apple Inc and Tivo, instead of cable, satellite and other television providers such Comcast Corp and Verizon Communications.

    Wheeler said the proposal is the beginning of an "information-gathering process” in which the FCC will allow cable providers and other stakeholders a 60-day comment period. If implemented, the industry would then have two years to comply with the rule.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by gjsmith128 Feb 18, 2016 9:10 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 18, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    I agree that TNK was priced for a much bigger miss. I will be buying when this settles out and after the conference call.

    What do people expect from a $4.50 stock? $0.31/share EPS for one quarter is pretty damn good for that. Even if they ONLY do $1.00 in earnings this year, that is still a $0.30 to $0.50 dividend on a $4.50 stock........WHICH MEANS A 4.5 P/E WHILE YIELDING ~9%.

    Yes, I will be buying TNK once this settles down and after listening to the conference call.

    Seriously, what were people expecting from TNK at $4.50?

  • Reply to

    earnings my friend.....EARNINGS

    by joejag1611 Feb 16, 2016 1:45 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 16, 2016 9:05 PM Flag

    According to the Analyst Estimates page, several analysts recently raised 1Q2016 estimates to $0.48/share. I wonder if this was done so guidance misses and there is an excuse for a sell-off? After all, if they really believed TNK would earn $0.48/share in 1Q 2016, they should be pounding the table with buy recommendations.

    This stock seems very manipulated to me.

  • Reply to

    $20 stock on sale for $14 and change

    by joedotcom2 Feb 16, 2016 7:06 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 16, 2016 9:00 PM Flag

    I agree as I bought in late last summer around $9. But, this stock suffers from a lack of buying interest or volume and thus the MM's can move the price all over the place. There is absolutely no reason these shares are trading this low.......but again the lack of committed buying interest/volume.

    Still, another quarter or two of earnings and this will be an 8 P/E stock growing at a very high rate and with a stellar balance sheet.

    There are also several funds which hold over 5% of the outstanding shares and have to file form 13's as well as the CEO. So, why is there this overall lack of buying interest.......which means the share price lags well below what it should be????

  • Reply to

    Options.

    by jarhead19881992 Feb 12, 2016 2:36 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 13, 2016 11:57 AM Flag

    thanks jarhead,

    I have the longer weekend (Market closed on Monday for President's Day) to think this through........but selling the Jan 2018 $12 or $15's look like a really good deal. I am trending more to the $15's due to the additional $2.60 premium for $3 strike price differential.

HIMX
10.19-0.22(-2.11%)2:36 PMEDT