Good note and I concur as I have been waiting for the conference transcript for several days so I listened to the conference call again last night.
HIMX has a great future........but not much can be talked about and most all of the potential is in the future. So, I do expect HIMX to be range bound until the next conference call.
But, the Conference Call Transcript does give lots of hints about the future..........but investors and institutions do try to time the markets and most will not buy until May or later.
I do agree that HIMX will at least meet the dividend of $0.25/share and I expect a bit of an increase. As such, I have notionally thought about an 8% increase to $0.27/share in July. At some point, I do wonder if they will move to a quarterly dividend???
Everyone needs to read the 4Q earnings transcript which is now posted on Seeking Alpha. I just don't see much news coming or happening here for the next 3 months (until 1Q 2014 Conference Call). I expect HIMX to be range bound but i also have a $18 end of year 2014 share price and then a $23 end of year 2015 share price.
Yahoo also has the new 2015 earnings estimates up and they show around a 35% growth rate for 2015 after a 70% EPS growth rate in 2014.
We will probably not have any direct news until the early May 2014 1Q conference call. sbacchus/himx2013 will keep us appraised of the general industry news. We get our $0.25 to $0.30 dividend in July.
I will post here as I have news..........but I expect HIMX to be sort of range bound for the next few months.......but the future is certainly bright. We just have to patient in getting there.
Give me a few days but I see very few good investments out there............which is to be expected with markets so much higher. I see HIMX as a good 2nd Half 2014 play but mostly dead money the next 4 to 6 months as they can't talk due to Non-Disclosure Agreements and their customers are not talking as they don't want to give away any competitive advantage.
But, if you read the Google earnings report, they need more eyeballs as their earnings were greatly helped with more views as the average ad view revenue is continuing to drop. So, what better way than mobile and mobile via Google Glasses???? Sony and Microsoft will also greatly enhance gaming console sales with Augmented Reality Gaming Googles so those are coming also. HIMX will start getting revenue a month or so before release but I see most of this a second half 2014 phenomena. There will be at least a $0.25/share dividend coming in July as there was the past several years (Taiwan Gov't gives a tax break for dividends which helps drive this behavior).
The easy money has obviously been made in GTAT but there is probably more to come. My plan has been to sell Puts for Jan 2015 as there is good value in these although we may never get the shares.........but there is a good premium worth collecting. And, there is less risk than in buying GTAT shares today (price it and you will see).
I am now using more ETF's (including Solar TAN) as I am retiring and taking less risk. I have made more than enough to finance my retirement and thus am more at capital preservation.
I own TQNT but that is also now dead money (after recent news and activist shareholder) until May or so when they give 2Q 2014 guidance. I also got over a double in my biotech CTSO.OB and it could go higher but highly speculative. RFMD and SWKS have some good options pricing.
There are some good values in Chinese stocks.......but also great risk (see SORL & LIWA). I should have bought gold when they said sell.
I am also just trying to be truthful (on oil development) and realistic about mankind's proven examples of trying to coordinate and do what is right.
On oil development, consider the case of offshore oil development. The industry is capable of drilling horizontal wells..........easily 3 to 5 miles long so that is 9 to 25 square miles developed from a drill pad which might be 500' x 250' (125,000 square feel for developing 9 square miles or 250,905,600 square feet giving a disrupted area of much less than 1% when you do the math). This is done all the time offshore and there is no reason it could not be mandated if it truly was helpful (just like it could in ANWR).
But, there is no way this oil is going to be left behind.............so those protesting would be better served with coming up with a minimal disruptive plan rather than opposing it............as there are many thermal oilfields around the world which do just fine. But, those who protest have to seat at the table for how.
Same with Keystone the pipeline. We are spewing many thousands of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere which does not need to occur if we had the Keystone Pipeline (both for Bakken shale oil now being shipped via railroads and then to displace the Middle East Oil which should be going to China and Canadian oil which should be coming to the USA).
But, do look at ethanol to see how twisted things have become. It takes 0.9 gallons of fuel to create 1 gallon of ethanol......so each gallon of burned ethanol is using 1.9 total gallons with CO2 emissions from that 1.9 gallons when only 1 gallon is really needed.......and all the CO2 from the plants gets emitted rather than stored as it should as wood or CO2 emissions used in oil recovery where it can be sequestrated in the reservoir.
Protesters are generally uneducated and emotional and tools of the political. Again, there is logic with Keystone and against ethanol...but so-called environmentalists still oppose. Why?
Funny about the beans and animals but actually methane is worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas and the methane put out by animals (especially feedlots) is appreciable.
What people don't realize is that every time you cut your grass, you release a lot of methane into the air.......from the grass you cut to each cut bit of grass remaining on your lawn as the cut portion releases methane. The cut grass is relatively minor although the dead grass puts out a fair amount of methane and there are a lot of lawns cut every day.
So, it still comes down to what impact man has (some mass balance articles still say well less than 10% while others say much higher). But, the earth has had several global warming events in the past before man invented the internal combustion engine or raised animals for food or cut lawns.
But, my faith in man to do the right things worldwide is low........as look at all the other examples of inhumanity towards others. Building seawalls and berms at least work and might be a better way to cope with global warming.
The really fair studies show that pipelines transport oil with many fewer CO2 emissions........yet Greenpeace and environmentalists have so politicized the pipeline they can't even approve something which meets their larger goal of reducing CO2 emissions..........which is one of their larger goals.
I would be willing to debate the Canadian Tar Sands development with you. First, it will be developed as there is too much value to be left untapped. To assume otherwise is naive. The forests are mostly fiction as drilling from drill islands can impact well less than 5% of the property.
The amount of energy is a red herring. First, how long have we been making ethanol which takes nearly 0.9 gallons to make a gallon. That is your energy waster and something putting much more CO2 in the atmosphere than needed (1.9 gallons worth when only 1 gallon was needed).
The Canadian Tar Sands are steam drive fields.......no difference than the many other steam drive fields currently in operation in California, Oman, Canada now, Venezuela, etc., etc.. Yes, it takes more energy than light oil........but the world produces several million barrels per day now from tar sands and this would be no different. Most of the steam drive fields I have worked on use well less than 10% of the oil produced energy to make the steam and operate the field.........much better than ethanol which is still being mandated today.
Don't come back with water needs as the water is recycled day after day. The steam injected gives up its latent heat of vaporization, condenses to water and is produced where it is treated and turned into steam over and over.
Disclosure: I am a Petroleum Engineer who specializes in Heavy OIl Steam Drives and past chairman of the local chapter of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
But, the Keystone Pipeline could help with the Bakken Shale Oil and then the Canadian Tar Sands oil negating the need to tanker/railroad oil, using CO2 spewing engines, from the Middle East and North Dakota to the refineries.
Now, if you don't want to cut those CO2 emissions......and this is a lot of emissions......just say so.
Greenpeace and environmentalists have so politicized Keystone they CAN"T approve it even when it makes sense. Build seawalls and berms!!.
The key might be to be a manufacturer of the end products rather than sell furnaces so others will be the manufacturer of the end product. You only make the furnace once..........but you can use that furnace over and over to manufacture products.
This is a big change in the GTAT business plan.........but I think a very good change.
The power requirements are while melting/combining the various raw materials so your calcs could be close......for the period it takes to melt and combine the materials. After that, it is all about controlled temperatures which are generally cooling and thus, if well insulated, no additional heat energy would be needed. So, this power application could be for less than one day and thus your overall power requirements are hundreds of percentages too high.
Within every problem are many smaller problems struggling to get out. This would be one. But, the data is around on the recipe for the boules and melting/combining temperatures so with around 75% efficiency, one could calculate the energy requirement to melt and it would be in calories and not calories per day (and calories can be converted to electrical energy (but I don't have my Ugly's reference manual here at present).
But, the bottom line is that you may be more than 10 times too high with your calculations and more work is needed.
If your numbers were even close to being correct,, I suspect there would have been many other approval issues for the Mesa Plant.
Having written this, anyone driving by can attest to the massive electrical cables sitting onsite (probably leads into the building prior to distribution to the various furnaces).
Let me chime in here with some thoughts:
- If CO2 is an issue, approve Keystone pipeline so we greatly reduce CO2 from tankers & rail cars. Why isn't Greenpeace and Environmentalists all over this as it could reduce thousands of tons of CO2 per year.
- If Keystone is not approved, Canada will build a pipeline to their west coast and tanker the oil to China is CO2 spewing tankers........while tankers spewing CO2 keep bring oil to the USA........and CO2 spewing destroyers are policing the Middle East.
- Man is contributing to CO2 emissions and Global Warming........but the amount is highly debatable (from less than 3% to ??%). But, the bigger contributors are forest fires, volcanos, etc......and global warming is also influenced by solar flares, etc.
- There were several global warming events before man had the internal combustion engine......proof that it is more than CO2 and man-made..........but man may still be contributing to the present.
- You will NEVER get mankind to greatly reduce CO2 emissions in a wise manner..........we would be much better off building sea walls and river berms as they would be effective.
- USA and Europe are spending a lot of money reducing their CO2 by smaller amounts whereas this same money could reduce much, much more in Africa and China. And, when the USA and Europe drive energy intensive manufacturing out of their countries, it gets done using coal fired power plants and actually adds to CO2 emissions.
Until Keystone is approve and operating, I can't accept that Greenpeace and others are working to reduce CO2 emissions as this is quick and easy...........but political.
I have nearly 0 faith that mankind could reverse CO2 emissions worldwide even if they were a meaningful contributor as just look at the insanity. Build seawalls and berms...........as they have a chance of working.
Peace Out!!!!! I do try to reduce my CO2 emissions but only when cost effective.
Keep in mind that at least two holders who lightened their positions may have done so as they are long time holders and the value of HIMX has climbed so high for them that they needed to rebalance as HIMX probably became a very high percentage of their total holdings.
This is common and you would see where this is just a sale of some shares and not a close out. I think Dalton was one and I can't recall the other..............but they are long term holders who have seen HIMX go up by 700% since they bought...........and they got annual dividends.
These seem like 3Q 2013 numbers.........especially these:
Last Quarter's Starting Price : $5.55
Last Quarter's Ending Price : $10.00
Last Quarter's Average Price :$7.23
Not sure what to say other than if anyone wanted to sell, Thursday was a much better selling day than Friday. A true seller sells into strength.
What I saw Friday was an attempt to take HIMX lower but then some support at the $13.75 to $13.80 level.
I do think HIMX is range bound until there is news...............and as HIMX releases very little news, it will have to come from a customer.............or most likely, at their early May 2014 1Q 2014 earnings announcement.
We do have an investor's conference in early March but I think by now all the investment houses have been exposed to HIMX so I am not expecting much from that.
I get to Phoenix this Wednesday night where I will be able to help you on the after hours/weekend surveillance for a few weeks. I did drive by on Wednesday; 5-Feb around 4:30 PM and posted my observations. I'll be in Phoenix for a few weeks and will be sure to post when I am going there to save you a trip although my focus will be after normal work hours to gauge the after hours (nights/weekends) activity.
It seems the best view is from the northern border street although there really isn't room to park along that road side shoulder. I do have my convertible and motorcycle for unobstructed viewing.
The parking lot in the southwest seems to be more civilian vehicle and thus I wonder if these are for GT Technologies' employees and if they are perhaps operating the initially installed furnaces..............or if they are just general helpers for the ongoing construction. You have to pass a guard to get into this parking lot gate.....but it would also be interesting to see if there is a shift time where the cars leave and if more arrive.
I may drive up and talk to the guards............perhaps ask about parking to go apply for a job???
The solar panels are on the east to southeast side of the building. I'll have to count these sometime as you can pull off the road near here......but there doesn't seem to be enough to really make a huge impact on manufacturing. I think people like demerson over-estiimate the amount of power needed as most of the power is to melt the materials and after that, it is really a maintain heat/slower cool for the crystals to form (slower cool is larger crystals and faster cool is smaller crystals) but you don't really need to apply much, if any, additional heat energy (sort of like steel making, etc. which is all about proper crystal growth).
Anyway, perhaps one day/night we can share a drive by.....I can drive the convertible and you can hang outside the passenger side & snap the pictures. See you there someday/night.
I hadn't seen this but it needs to get out. I agree with their comments but do think HIMX is range bound until their next conference call. The big money should be looking to get in on any weakness. We just have to be patient.
Keep in mind that HIMX will start manufacturing and selling LCoS displays several months (a quarter even) ahead of the launch date to account for assembly, packaging and preparing for sales.
What is really needed is Microsoft and Sony starting to compete on console sales with games written for Gaming Goggles. I would have to think the one who releases these first will drive a lot more console upgrades and sales.
Also, Samsung is partnered with Google and the Baidu is looking at these along with others. I have to think the latest LCoS upgrade was key.........so we might be able to start seeing the LCoS revenue in July to August depending upon the manufacturing capacity.
Good find/post. A few relevant comments:
- The August teardown showed the LCoS displays at $25. Using a 20% price decrease/volume discount (and easy of math), lets make this $20. 24 million units would thus be $480 million in revenue. Even at $15/each, this is $360 million of revenue.
- Mgmt has stated these are higher margins so lets use a conservative 25% margin. That is then $90 million (on the $15 - $360 million revenue) to $120 million (on the $20 - $480 revenue) in profits.
- At this mid-point $105 millon profit and 170 million shares, this equates to $0.62/share earnings.
- Assume the base business earnings are 15% above 2013's $0.37 and you get $1.09 in earnings.........but this is at 2 million displays per month.
- Add in your own LCoS camera arrays which should be meaningful in 2015 along with perhaps a larger increase in base earnings and we could easily be at $1.25 or higher.
But, where I really take exception is the P/E due to growing earnings at 40%/year. So, a 25 P/E gives a share price well over $25/share............with perhaps a $0.50 or higher per share dividend as HIMX has been giving back over 50% of the prior year's earnings as a dividend.
We just need to be patient. I have always thought about Feb 2016 as the real payout as that is when HIMX will report FY 2015..........and that means we make around 50%/year while waiting.
Days to cover is for shorts. It is the short volume divided by the average days trading volume so you know how many days at the average trading volume it would take for the shorts to cover.
Example. HIMX has about 8 million shares short and trades about 9.3 million shares per day so the days to cover is just less than 1.
This would be very expensive insurance unless they bought well out of the money in which case it is hardly insurance at all. I suspect more short sellers using options would perhaps buy puts.
Look at the option prices on HIMX. Buying calls at the current price is pretty expensive........and would eat up much of any downward movement. I suspect the HIMX shorts are naked shorts without any hedge.......but that is just a guess.
What you suggest might be true of a less volatile stock but I still then they buy puts or just short the shares.
Getting involved in warrants and secondary offerings might be where they play the options off against the secondary or warrants.
I am pretty sure that HIMX kept its customers informed as they upgraded their LCOS......about the specs (input/output, etc.) but especially about the form factor size, etc.
If you read HIMX mgmt prepared remarks closely, you would see where it says they work with each customer separately on their specific needs and requirements. HIMX Mgmt is too wise to just spring changes on their customers.
Now, will this delay Google Glasses? It could slightly but it would be an upgrade Google wanted and was prepared for. I am suspecting that in addition to size, it also increased resolution but that is just a guess. I just can't imagine changing the size only.
I have The tdameritrade mobile app but their news on GTAT is from 12-Feb and was just about its recovery from the 7.9% fall. No real news that I see.
What are you referring to? But, there is no news from today that I see.