What we are seeing here.........and I am seeing in my other Apple iPhone supplier stocks is the smart money getting in now............before the iPhone 6 teardown revealing the various chips in the phone.
The teardown will bring in money from those who need validation but the smart money is guessing and buying in now. Even the smart money is probably only buying a portion of their position........and will buy more after the teardown.
See also SWKS, RFMD and NXPI (all of which I have owned for some time) as they are seeing the same upward bias and slightly higher trading volumes. These 3 also had good 2Q 2014 reports and raised guidance.........and most likely did not raise guidance so high they couldn't beat it again.
So, what we are seeing is the smarter money buying in before the release and tangible evidence. How smart are the shorts???????
The big money is made by beating the big money to where it is going. Following it just makes you the bigger fool and one of the last to buy.
Get with it!!!!!!!!
I don't read many of your posts are you are Mr. Generalist/Mr. Obvious but I though you sold out in the $15's...........just like you also sold out in the $12's (but I think you then bought these back a bit higher than you sold out).
So, about your writing "Truth is, and I always try to tell the truth as horrible as that is...":
- what price did you pay to get back into GTAT
- how much have you left on the table with paying 40% short term capital gains taxes (+something like 2.8% Obamacare taxes) vs. 20% (and same Obamacare taxes) on long term capital gains????
What you should be doing, instead of posting the obvious, is researching and profiting from Options buying calls is higher risk/rewards while selling Puts is lower risk/reward but both can be profitable)...........and perhaps playing the very large bump we will see from the short squeeze covering...........and short squeezes do generally result in over-shooting a price target in the short term.
Okay, it is clear to me that GTAT will not move meaningfully higher until some of the promise becomes reality. I am not overly concerned as I bought in last June at $4......but thought I would put this out for y'all to comment.
Current expectations are for 2014 Revenue of $600 to $800 million with $700 million being the anticipated average (Yahoo Analyst Estimate is $698 million).
1Q 2014 was $22.5 million with:
"Equipment orders booked during the quarter were $29 million, including $15 million in PV and $14 million in Sapphire. The company ended the quarter with $609 million of equipment backlog, consisting of $300 million of ASF(TM) orders, $296 million of polysilicon orders and $13 million related to PV equipment. Subsequent to the close of the quarter, the company booked a $58 million order for high temperature specialty furnaces, which will be reflected in the Q2 reported backlog."
Now, with the sapphire revenue not being recognized until delivered to Apple assembler and the iPhone 6 not expected until September, this leads me to believe we might have around $50 to $75 million in 2Q revenue and then the remaining $600 million split between 3Q and 4Q. I split them as a September iPhone release means very aggressive assembly in July and August to be ready for September.
The only downside I see is if the sapphire being delivered to Apple is only for the larger iPhone and that is delayed due to issues.
Finally, I don't think the 2Q revenue matters.........but the outlook needs to stay at $600 to $800 million for 2014 or be raised. Their 3Q estimate should tell us something about when the iPhones will be released as it would reflect sales to Apple Manufacturing company.
The other drivers for GTAT (revenue or good news for the stock price) will be updates on Hyperion, SiC and especially adoption/testing results of Merlin. Any news of the non-Mesa plant expansions could also help the bullish case.
You should have also seen the solar arrays on the southeast of the lot (and they are on the roof although these are not easily seen).
The southwest also has the evaporation (water) tanks and the west has the switch gear which can be seen from Elliott Road on the north.
I am currently in Phoenix and have been by there 4 times now between February and the present.
Thanks again for your update.
If anyone is watching, there were some interesting last and after hour trades today:
- last trade was 160,500 shares at $18.96
- After hour trade of 24,018 shares at $18.96
- After hour trade of 137,900 shares at $19.97
I have always viewed these larger last and after hour trades as:
- MM's balancing trades among themselves as they 'make a liquid market' and 'manage prices'
- Arranged sale to a larger fund/institution as the MM accumulated over a day or more on their customer's behalf
Regardless, I see this action is bullish as there is higher volume and definitely interest.
Finally, if anyone is watching the daily short %age trading, it has ticked up to 31% the past two days from 25%................although it has been higher in the past.
Things are afoot...............and out of the ordinary.
Almost any negative the shorts can come up with are solvable with time (sapphire yields, Merlin adoption/revenue timing, Hyperion timing, SiC timing). So, unless you are an option trader, the only thing between the shareholder and $40 to $80 is time.
At 110% to over 400%, what is the matter of a few months.......or even a year?
There are no problems with GTAT that some time will not correct.
Found it. Interesting and I will have to do more research.
So, this won the best choice award at the Taipei computer show?
What else do you know about this? Release date, etc.????
Great find as is usual for you. But, I could have guessed this as China should like the idea of 'free' energy after signing a half trillion dollar gas deal with Russia.
The lower pollution is a great bonus for China............and should increase the efficiency of the solar panels :-)
But, I suspect this is the old buy vs. rent decision. China can either go solar where at some point, they get lower cost energy...............or forever be an importer of oil and gas. Pretty much a 'no-brainer' to me. Their only other realistic option would be to go nuclear...............and while they are to some degree...............they need solar also.
I also value your industry and technical input.
Have you priced GTAT Put Options. Selling them is a bullish bet. You may or may not get the shares..........but you get to keep the premium regardless.
Right now, the price you would get for selling $17 Puts is around $3 for Jan 2015 and $5 for Jan 2016. As GTAT should be well above $17 on these dates, you will keep the $3 and $5 premiums..........and hold the cash starting from the day you sell the Puts.
If the share price drops for whatever reason, you are better off getting shares put to you in Jan 2015 for $17 (less the $3 for a net price of $14) or Jan 2016 (less $5 for a net price of $12) which is far superior to paying over $18.30 today.
Check selling Put Options this weekend and take advantage before the prices change.
If you want the share Put to you, you might want to sell the $20 or $25 Puts for Jan 2015.
Thanks for the feedback/comments.
Have you ever heard of two MM's cooperating against the rest of the MM pack? That is what I meant when I wrote MM's balancing trades among themselves.
I have read a bit on the internet about MM tricks/tactics and this is one. I do agree that the MM's usually compete against each other but cooperation among two on occasion is not unheard of.
But, these larger volume trades could be MM's accumulating for their institutional customers.
Regardless, I saw these larger trades and was just reporting them and speculating why.
if you also look at Yahoo's Analysts Estimates page, the average EPS estimates were just increased $0.02 for 2014 and another $0.02 for 2015.................
And, that is the average EPS which are up (9 analysts giving estimates for 2014 and 8 analysts for 2015).
So, I have to agree with your bullish chart pattern and the analysts are either involved with their investing arm or together the traders and the analysts agree that the negativity got the better of some.
What are your estimates for 3Q and 4Q 2014?
I do agree that some are bullish and I am going with GTAT's guidance.
But, when someone has been manufacturing AND STOCKPILING sapphire, perhaps since before the November 2013 announcement, one might expect a huge increase in revenue knowing that Apple probably did not accept delivery on it until sometime in August 2014.
This is why I have been trying to determine at what point Apple takes delivery/possession of GTAT's sapphire..............is it when it leaves Mesa (doubt it). Is it when the boule goes for cutting/polishing??? Is is when the cut, polished and finished screens head to Apple's assembler (Foxconn, etc.)???
But, I do expect to see a huge number in 4Q 2014 due to the very large stockpile which was monetized. 3Q will give us an idea of 4Q as well as Apple's iPhone 6 sales.
You are the slow one as one should continuously learn to improve their investing results. Doing the same thing (trading which is proven to be a losing strategy as no one can call reversals in trends..........and mostly due to tax issues) and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.
The little I have read of your posts show you losing two of the two times I read. You sold once as you thought it was extended (around $13 or $13 I think) and then posted about being wrong and buying back in higher.
I also recall you recently (2 weeks ago???) selling in the higher $15's after a bigger daily run while GTAT continued on up.the next few days.
So, why do you continue to do this................and pay double the taxes?
Learn to invest and then learn options to improve your results.
I am not trying to change your mind but the history of PTT is to pick smaller cap stocks in which PTT gets a big boost as their subscribers run up the price.
That is my biggest complaint about PTT and their paid service. They make money on the subscription but also as the subscribers run up the share price of some lower cap, lower volume traded stock.
Also, that is very difficult to pick stocks that could triple. I would be more inclined to subscribe if they picked stocks with 30% upside potential and only minimal downside.
There was a time that oil and natural gas were linked (price multiple)..............and natural gas is still used for power generation.............but can also be used for fuel for vehicles, plastics, fertilizers, etc.
So, there is a weak historical link between oil and solar.................and with more plug-in cars, that weaker link could still be valid to some degree.
You do not seem to get it about Amazon's upcoming smartphone and competition in the marketplace.
It is all about the features Amazon will include and whether they are ground breaking enough to drive changes in other phones. And, it is also about pricing as that can impact consumer decisions also.
From a HIMX standpoint, they may get some components (directly or via their customers) which will increase their sales. And, this phone may include LCOS camera arrays........or drive others to include them rather than continually fight the camera resolution/size battle with CMOS.
So, it is not just about the Amazon phone itself but what it includes and how it drives the industry.
But, what are you doing on this message board? If HIMX is over-vvalued, go elsewhere. If you are short, state that.
I still have to wonder if a Hyperion add-on is a remote possibility as cutting the sapphire ingots at the site where they are grown great reduces the handling and thus the cost. A supply chain and logistics guy like Tim Cook has to realize this.
The soon to be awarded free trade zone will also be good news however expected it is.
That language ("...we retain ownership of any modifications or improvements to our pre-existing intellectual property and may use such improvements in products sold to other customers.") does not sound like something from the bigger companies like Apple, Samsung, Google, etc. as they generally want the IP developed with their money.........and they also like to keep new developments to themselves.
PXLW is certainly intriguing................but I still don't get why we need UHD on our smaller smartphones when we are happy with 1080p on our large screen HDTV's. Even I have a hard time telling an UHD from a HDTV display on anything under 42".
And, content streaming this higher def content will only eat up data plans. I see this as going to UHD TV's first and foremost..........with TI and others in this space.
I don't think the diamond saws can cut fine enough for laminates. Hyperion will be needed for laminates of this sort of use thickness.