Seems you still have not changed your adversarial ways here.........and still have trouble being consistent and connecting the dots.
First, I have a really good idea the prices you added VUZI and bought EMAN and KOPN........so at least look in the mirror and admit you have not done well (actually very poorly) with your investments and that is the only real scorecard in this game of investing.
Second, you are not consistent as what you skewer HIMX for, you forgive your stocks as they don't provide guidance and have many issues which you overlook.
Third, you still have trouble connecting the dots as there are real and valid reasons many analysts have upgraded HIMX price targets AND buyers have come in and moved HIMX well above its usual trading range....all of which are validated by the shorts covering lately when they should have been adding to their short positions as HIMX has moved up and above its trading range.
Why don't you adjust your focus to making money rather than losing it while trying to APPEAR to be the smartest guy on the Message Boards????? And, let all the red in your investment accounts tell the real tale about how smart you are!!!!!
Now, you do a decent job of following the industry and companies........but you invest in micro-caps which have issues that you overlook........and then look past some real positives in HIMX which are not entirely visible......but are there to be seen if you looked as closely for them as you do VUZI, EMAN and KOPN.
Or, you could continue to puff out your chest thinking how smart you are while staring at the wall of red in your investment accounts. The choice is yours.
We should start to see many revisions to HIMX 2016 as:
+ Analysts currently expecting $168.36 million but HIMX guided for $176.2 (-1%) to $185.1 million. The midpoint should be $180.7 vs. the current $168.36 million for an increase of $12.24 million
+ EPS is currently at $0.03 for 1Q 2016 and HIMX has guided for $0.055 to $0.075 with midpoint being $0.065/share which will be an increase of $0.035 and a bit over a double from the current $0.03/share
+ Analysts are currently estimating 2016 revenue of $803 million which will probably be upgraded by at least $100 million although probably not all at the same time. But, we do know the analyst estimates are currently low by $12.2 million for 1Q 2016.
+ Analysts are currently estimating $0.24/share in EPS. The midpoint of HIMX's 1Q 2016 is $0.065 which would total $0.26/share if they are held constant. I would expect that HIMX will easily do over $0.30/share and perhaps higher in 2016......although this will become clearer as the year passes and we get estimates for 2Q, 3Q or 4Q 2016
Good post khajso,
This is what we should be doing.......and I know fsumatty, sal glhsken and others have been doing. We should take the high road and refute/bolster our case with facts.
Laughable article as the very first point is that HIMX should be shorted is that it has a lower forward P/E than the TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) P/E. All companies which are growing earnings have lower forward P/E's than TTM P/E's and thus this is certainly not the top item one should screen for when looking for companies to short.
Seems 925,000 shorts covered during the last half of Feb 2016 to go with the 2.68 million which were covered during the first half of February for a total number of shorts covered in February of ~3.6 million shares.
Again, very interesting that shorts are covering here over $9 rather than shorting shares anticipating a drop in price back to $6 or $7. We do know that all of these shorts are losers as HIMX is trading very near their 52 week high.
Also very interesting that the price of HIMX has held up fine with many selling HIMX as it went over $8 and then over $9 and $10 thinking they will buy on a pullback. So, the power is strong with HIMX.
Date. Short Volume
Nice turnaround in price this morning and it was accompanied by strong volume. There were just over 1 million shares traded in the first 90 minutes (1,050,000 shares to be exact).
I still prefer some consolidation at these levels as I am more an investor than a trader. And, as we have seen many new postings here, we know that the momentum traders have arrived and that probably means the HFT shorters have also.....and we know the jmelik basher is associated with some boileroom bashing service as he only appears at times like this.
But, this mornings positive turnaround says there are still some larger buyers out there that want shares of HIMX.......and at volumes that the shorters do not want to sell.
MXL reported $98.8 million and $0.46/share and guided 1Q 2016 to between $100 and $105 million. Those are all at or up slightly from their pre-announcement of 6-Jan 2016 which was:
"MaxLinear currently anticipates revenue for the quarter ending December 31, 2015 to be approximately $99 million, compared to prior guidance of between $95 million and $100 million. MaxLinear also expects revenue in the first quarter of 2016 to be flat to up 5%, or $99 million to $104 million."
Note that the sell-off in growth stocks is those with higher P/E's. MXL now has a trailing EPS of $1.16/share so the current P/E is around 11.6 while it is growing very nicely. The 1Q 2016 quarter should have them earning at least $0.40 which will compare to $0.06 from 1Q 2015 so the trailing earnings will become $1.40.
I tried to buy MXL today but did not get nearly as many shares below $13 as I wanted and it kept moving up as I placed my bids. I see this as buyers driving this down to scare the shareholders off and buying their shares......but I did not get nearly as many shares as I wanted and it kept moving up on my bid.
This is one company to hand onto as it is growing at 20%/year with a P/E nearly half of that. And, we have more institutions buying such as Blackrock which is now a 6.14% owner.
Seems another 465,000 short shares covered during the first half of March 2016......when PAST conventional wisdom would say the shorts should be increasing as HIMX moved well above their traditional trading range. This has to be bullish.......and there are still more shorts to cover.
Keep in mind that HIMX share price has held up well as many sold as HIMX passed $8, $9 and $10 thinking they would buy again on a pullback.........which has yet to happen.
Couple all of this with the analyst updates and mostly increases in price targets and you have a stock which could stabilize and then move higher with more news.
Date. Shares Short. Share Price
3/15/2016 3,900,424. $10.50
2/29/2016 4,365,568. $ 9.89
2/12/2016 5,290,703. $ 7.90
1/29/2016 7,970,786. $ 7.76
1/15/2016 8,484,327. $6.79
12/31/2015 8,181,479. $8.20
Still wasting your time on something you know may not be able to be proven one way or another?
Since you wrote "Hololens highly screened developers are likely to be under strict NDA's so good luck expecting to see a teardown anytime soon", why waste your time on this topic..........unless you are just here to puff out your chest.
And, the lack of a teardown should favor HIMX as most all analysts think HIMX is in the Hololens........along with various other items as Wu stated that the analysts were under-estimating the dollar content of HIMX in these sorts of devices.
Now, how about going to the VUZI Message Board and staying on topic there about VUZI's business prospects for 1Q and 2Q 2016 and how that will impact the share price............and at what price and when you will average down to try and mitigate your losses there?
Within VR, after gaming, I think sharing of reality will be huge. And, this sharing of reality will include having (and being able to change) your seats at any sporting event, music concert and/or place in the world.
With properly placed cameras, you will be able to enjoy any sporting event or concert going on anywhere.........and actually stream it anytime you want from anywhere in the world. Copyrights and impact on tickets/live attendance will have to be worked out, but this is coming. It would be great to experience any sporting event you want from mid-field/court of anyplace you want......and then decide which concert to 'attend'.
There will also be tours of all museums and interesting sites available also. And, this content will drive better and better hardware experiences.
Having written that, HIMX plays mainly in the display drivers, timing controllers, sensors and such within VR. It is Augmented Reality (AR) and Mixed Reality (MR) where HIMX's LCOS displays will be used........and the need for sensors grows dramatically.
Those who haven't (or haven't recently), should go to HIMX's site and view the Investor's Presentation (1Q2016).
with a buy & price target of $20.
From the report:
"Analysts at Topeka Capital Markets initiated coverage on shares of MaxLinear, Inc. (NYSE:MXL) in a report released on Friday, MarketBeat Ratings reports. The firm set a “buy” rating and a $20.00 price target on the stock. Topeka Capital Markets’ price target would indicate a potential upside of 26.90% from the stock’s previous close."
Further on, the article summarizes some other investment firms thinking on MXL as:
MXL has been the topic of a number of other research reports. Maxim Group upped their price target on shares of MaxLinear from $18.00 to $19.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, January 7th. Roth Capital assumed coverage on shares of MaxLinear in a research report on Thursday, February 4th. They set a “buy” rating on the stock. Stifel Nicolaus increased their price objective on shares of MaxLinear from $18.00 to $20.00 in a research report on Friday, November 13th. Needham & Company LLC reissued a “buy” rating and set a $19.00 price objective on shares of MaxLinear in a research report on Tuesday, February 9th. Finally, Deutsche Bank reissued a “buy” rating on shares of MaxLinear in a research report on Tuesday, February 9th. Eleven equities research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, The stock presently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $18.50.
Other large investors have recently bought and sold shares of the company. Fuller & Thaler Asset Management Inc. purchased a new stake in MaxLinear during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $8,604,000. Morgan Stanley raised its stake in MaxLinear by 473.0% in the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley now owns 632,662 shares of the company’s stock valued at $9,319,000 after buying an additional 522,245 shares during the period. Two Sigma Investments LLC raised its stake in MaxLinear by 621.0% in the fourth quarter. Two Sigma Investments LLC now owns 462,152 shares of the company’
HIMX has traded over 1 million shares in the first 55 minutes of trading on Thursday and is up over 2.3% at $10.29. Anytime HIMX trades over 1 million shares in the first 90 minutes of the trading day, that is strong volume for it.
Note that today follows Wednesday's (3/9/2016) Northland's Conference. Anyone want to bet today's action and yesterday's conference and one-on-one meetings are connected????
So, HIMX has held up well as many have sold their shares as HIMX passed $8, $9 and then a bunch more sold as HIMX crossed over $10. And, these shares are being purchased and otherwise accumulated by seemingly stronger hands. And, we know the shorts are covering whereas conventional wisdom that HIMX was going to fall back into the $6's would say the shorts should be adding to their short positions......but that is not happening.
HIMX now at 1.2 million shares and up 2.89% at $10.34 after one hour of trading. And, there are two more conferences next week with one in Hong Kong for the international banks/analysts.
Seems nearly 2.795 million shares were shorted during the first half of April 2016. That is a lot of shares for HIMX and certainly explains the price drop. In fact, these shorts account for nearly 10% of the trading volume in the 11 trading days in the first half of April 2015.
Note that HIMX closed at $10.55 today and the share volume has been quite a bit lower than 2 million shares per day this week. As such, I don't think the shorts have done very well adding 4.3 million shares since the middle of March while the price is virtually the same.
What happens to the price of HIMX when these shorts cover?
Date. Short Voume. Share Price
4/15/2016 8,216,198. $10.37
3/31/2016 5,421,896. $11.24
3/15/2016 3,900,424. $10.50
2/29/2016 4,365,568. $. 9.89
2/12/2016 5,290,703. $. 7.90
1/29/2016 7,970,786. $. 7.76
I also hope this first Chinese customer is Huawei as HIMX also sells to Xiaomi who is being censored for doing business with Iran when there were sanctions on Iran. As such, Xiaomi may not be able to export to the USA and perhaps even EU as punishment.
Hopefully this summer we see language on sales to a Chinese cell phone manufacturer......which could signal Foxconn who assembles for Apple.........or a Korean phone manufacturer.
This is 2 PR's in 2 days......so this could be a signal from HIMX to those shorting the stock. We saw this early this year when HIMX stock was under attack and HIMX started releasing some PR's in quick timing (several (three?) in one week).
If HIMX is sending a signal to the market to stop messing with the shares and shorting, that is a positive and bullish for the upcoming Conference Call. It also sets these topics up for questions at the upcoming conference calls when HIMX Mgmt might 'add color' to the news.
Well, if anyone could put a positive spin on this dilution, it would be this message board. And, I do hope this works out well for VUZI and the shareholders. VUZI mgmt should come out ASAP with a statement on exactly why this is needed and then why now.
A few of the things this means:
+ VUZI needs cash......and fairly soon. If VUZI could wait until they could show sales and profitability, they could do this offering at $8 and not $5 which means many fewer shares needing to be sold to raise the cash
+ VUZI needs cash which means revenues are going to be much lower than capital and expenses for some time
+ Intel does not seem interested in taking a larger share of VUZI (seemingly at around $5/share) and thus a public offering
+ VUZI is not able to borrow the money they need.......as paying just a few percent on a loan would be better for shareholders
+ VUZI is not able to raise the money they need/want via selling bonds or warrants
+ Expect some games to be played with the share price as secondary offering buyers hedge via shorting at current prices (and then cover their shorts with purchased shares)
Personally, I hope this works out well for the company and shareholders...but this is a huge amount of cash and could mean around 20 million shares issued which more than doubles the number of outstanding shares.
I would expect VUZI to put out as much good news as they can to keep the share price higher......as they should. And, they really, really, really need to communicate with the shareholders and prospective shareholders exactly why they are doing this rather than just use "boilerplate" language that is currently in the filing.
While I generally agree with your assessments, wouldn't that also be the case for:
+ VUZI who is selling competing products?
+ EMAN & KOPN who sell to these manufacturers?
And, as VUZI will only have more and more competition with time, will they ever make a profit?
I am not trying to trash any of these stocks.......only to put up the mirror and let you see your seemingly double standard that you discount various things here with HIMX....and yet seem to be bullish on VUZI, KOPN and EMAN. And, of the four companies, only HIMX:
+ Is profitable
+ Pays a dividend
+ Is mentioned bullishly by many analysts
+ Is mentioned by HIMX and analysts as winning numerous design slots in various AR/VR products
Why the double standard?????
If that is all you got from the Q&A's, I feel sorry for you.
Why can't you be somewhat balanced on your discussions on HIMX? You are quick to dismiss and spin:
+ a shelf offering from VUZI which was sprung on the shareholders with no discussion on need.uses
+ a website which says a product is sold out with no method to take emails or deposits for later sales
+ a company which doesn't provide estimates while you state how necessary this is for other companies
+ etc., etc.
If only you could be fair and balanced, you might make better investment decisions.......and possibly be a better guest at parties.
It has been a long time since we have seen a million shares of HIMX trade in the opening hour. Today, it did 1 million in the first 40 minutes........accompanied by a nice rise in share price.
Volume is a great indicator as too many focus only on price.
At some point, we really need some consolidation otherwise the shorts will get attracted along with the day traders. If you have a longer term horizon, slow and steady is preferred.
Xiaomi is an orange block with an mi......and is in the bottom right corner on page 10 under Display Drivers IC's and on page 15 when they discuss Small/Medium Display Drivers IC's #$%$'s).
HIMX is not "getting away from its large and mid-sized display business" as you write. HIMX is expanding that and other parts of their business so the margins benefit from economy of scale and then new products which do not have near the competition.
The 4Q 2015 transcript which describes their business and gives a 1Q 2016 forecast and discusses more of FY2016 is available at Seeking Alpha. They also have a new investor's presentation at their Himax website which also explains their various market opportunities and how they are pursuing these.