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Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) Message Board

haschultz1 58 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 23, 2015 4:04 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Possible Hololens connection...

    by adchop Jan 23, 2015 7:58 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberrylives,

    Look, I have no ill will towards you as you do your research. I only asked for the details behind your own comment:

    "HIMX looks to me to be overvalued here". Now, you say "that's a tall order". Well, which is it? I tried to help you by posting HIMX statements about LCoS and WLO doing very well and how HIMX is working with "world leading" customers and partners....who come to HIMXto fund focused R&D.

    I think you look at HIMX primarily as a competitor to EMAN and VUZI which I think you own. But, HIMX is much, much more than that as they have a great core business with multiple products in multiple sectors along with a wide variety of customers. And, within this core business, they are growing, they are profitable and they pay a dividend...all at a very reasonable P/E although lower PEG which I think is a key.

    The LCoS business is an upside for HIMX whereas displays are the full business of EMAN and VUZI. No doubt, LCoS has the potential to be a huge upside....but I and others are equally or more bullish on their WLO potential.

    Finally, another consideration for HIMX is their ability to combine several of these products including LCoS/WLO's with their touch and gesture controllers, timing controllers (which we know was key to Oculus lags which caused nausea), etc., etc. which it seems it is doing with their new term (to me at least) of HPU's or Holographic Processing Units.

  • Reply to

    Possible Hololens connection...

    by adchop Jan 23, 2015 7:58 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    sweetwummer,

    I have nothing against EMAN or even VUZI. I just don't like to invest in companies with revenue under $100 million per year....or even those with less than $250 million per year in revenue. EMAN is projected to have revenues under $30 million in 2015 and VUZI under $6 million.

    Both are probably very fine companies and doing very fine work and furthering technology. I see both are also up today so this rally is really sector wide and investors positioning themselves for the hoped for "next big thing".

    I was trying to keep this about HIMX and asking frankenberrylives about why he wrote "HIMX looks to me to be overvalued here". I think frankenberrylives does his research and has valid comments and truly did want his thoughts. I suspect he is probably not well informed on HIMX but was curious how he did valuations.

  • Just thought I would mention that selling Jan 2016 Puts have some really good value here and allow you to either get shares for well less than today's $8.95 or get money for nothing.

    The Jan 2016 Put Options are bidding:

    + $1 for the $7 Puts (net price of $6/share if HIMX is below $7/share on 1/15/2016)
    + $2.55 for the $10 Puts (net price $7.45 if HIMX is below $10 on 1/15/2016)
    + $4 for the $12 Puts (net price of $8 if HIMX Is below $12 on 1/15/2016)
    + $6.60 for the $15 Puts (net price of $8.40 if HIMX is below $15 on 1/15/2016)

    Disclosure: I sold the Jan 2016 $12 Puts some time back getting nearly $5/share for them. I also sold some June 2015 $7's and $8 Puts a week ago Friday on Option Expiration Date when the MM's took HIMX below $7 (and then it closed at $7). I doubt I get any of these shares.....but getting the June 2015's would be great as it would come right before the dividend is paid.

    Note that if you want the shares Put to you, you should be selling the $15's. I liked the $12's as I was fine getting $5/share for nothing as I fully expect HIMX to be over $12 on 1/15/2016....but would buy the shares if Put to me.

    Finally, you can also buy/sell Calls but I don't like buying Call Options as the net price you would pay is higher than the share price today. And, as all options have intrinsic value and time value, the time value erodes with time. So, selling Puts means I gain as the time value erodes whereas option buyers lose time value with time.

    Thoughts or comments on this option strategy?

  • Reply to

    I suspected it

    by smtl2000 Jan 26, 2015 12:28 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    Hey smtl2000,

    I think the PR was just a message to prevent ill conceived rumors....but no real hidden message. I suspect they did this on advisement from Northland although that is only a guess.

    If you followed HIMX long enough, you will note they did this once before........in much the same circumstances....and this was sometime after Northland invited them to their offices after an Investor's Conference.

    I appreciated HIMX management coming out with the PR they did and I wrote their Investor's Department (including Jackie) expressing my appreciation (think I posted my email on this Message Board).

  • Reply to

    where have all the pumpers gone..

    by jdunef Jan 26, 2015 10:31 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    Hey jdunef,

    I generally refrain from replying to your posts as you add nothing here. But, I will help you this one last time:

    We don't need to pump HIMX as Bank of America/Merrill Lynch is taking on that task for us!!!!

    NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Himax Technologies (HIMX - Get Report) popped 9.28% to $8.72 in morning trading Monday after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch named the semiconductor company as a top pick for 2015.

    Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Heyler named the company as his top pick in display ICs. The firm increased its price target on the stock to $12.50 and expects earnings per share of $1.

  • Reply to

    Bullish crossover ahead

    by amigolikes808 Jan 26, 2015 3:56 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 27, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    Hey danfinn61,

    Good comments on charting as the need for the MA's to be rising is key.

    The reason for your 200 DMA to be different in your 6 month and 3 month example is that there are not 200 trading days in these examples so these are not real 200 DMA's. The 50 day MA is the same in your example as there are 50 days of data in both cases....and would be the same 50 days.

    I generally do not trade but invest. I do use charts to help time and find the right buy and sell prices....but certainly do not use them to trade. And, they are also less useful near earnings report time as that is when a lot of new data is introduced and thus the charts are less important.

  • Reply to

    short interest.

    by jarhead19881992 Jan 27, 2015 5:50 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 27, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    Hey jarhead,

    Yes, I was just checking this out. I was also surprised due to the trading pattern in the first part of Jan 2015.

    Below is some historical context for HIMX. While it would have been nice to see the short interest higher, it does show that fewer and fewer see any downside potential for HIMX.

    Settlement Date Short Interest
    1/15/2015 1,994,763
    12/31/2014 2,692,114
    12/15/2014 3,650,287
    11/28/2014 2,772,031
    11/14/2014 3,951,826

  • Reply to

    Merrill Lynch prediction eps $1 for 2015

    by wc.farwell Jan 28, 2015 12:24 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 28, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    Hey mawchek,

    Since HIMX pays out a good share of their earnings as a dividend the following year (advantageous tax treatment in Taiwan), the 2015 EPS of $0.748 could be a $0.40+ dividend in July 2016.

    The 2016 EPS of $1.062 could become a $0.50+ dividend in July 2017.

    I would suspect that at some point, HIMX goes to quarterly dividends.

    Anyone who joined me in selling June 2015 Puts on option expiration Friday of 1/16/2015 (when MM's pushed the share price down to $7) is doing very well. The Jan 2016 Puts are still attractively priced although mine sold some time back are well in the money now.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 29, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Hey tb2ker,

    Yes, what's the rationale for $10 on Feb 13? This can't be option related as there are no $9 or $10 options shown for that date; the highest is $8.50. Now, there are a lot of $10 calls on the major Feb'15 options which is Feb 20th.

    I think today's action was a combination of this Friday's option expiration (want it below $8.50 and perhaps even $8 if they can) & the recent, rapid run-up this week attracting shorts.

    Look at how HIMX traded into the $8.50's around 1.5 million shares. The other 5.1 million shares traded today just kept this at this price level so that was mostly scared traders selling out to stronger hands...and MM's and others 'managing' the price in this level.

    Every time the price started to recover and go over $8.65 or so, there was a wave of selling. Real sellers, trying to get as high a price as they can for their shares, don't throw larger blocks at the bid to crash the stock price. That is someone(s) wanting to keep the price lower.

    The other things I noticed is that the same MM had large bids and asks; only $0.01 apart. Why these were not resolved in-house is interesting. It was like they wanted the price to stay lower.........so they could buy shares.

    In the long run, remember that large price spikes will attract short sellers and others and today was a part of that also. But, HIMX has a lot going for it. If you are a long term investor, you should want slower gains which are consolidated. Only the traders like this sort of volatility....and even they can lose with it.

    HIMX has much good news coming...but the financial results of revenue and earnings will be later this year (perhaps good 3Q guidance in August). Right now, is the time to buy on weakness and get positioned for what we, BoA/ML and many other analysts are expecting good things.

    Remember that HIMX is working with world class leaders on things they came to HIMX to work on together & HIMX added people for these projects.

    See after hours trading.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 29, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    Note also that those who watched and then acted on the Jan 16 major options action where the MM's took HIMX down to $7 are up over 20% on those shares.........after today's $0.75 drop.

    Again, it all about positioning one's self as there are just too many positives, seen by too many people, for HIMX not to appreciate with time. And, they are more than fairly valued here so the downside is limited.

    Watch the MM's and buy on weakness.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    Hey jebediah456,

    Thanks for posting the Maxcroaxis valuation with reasoning. Personally, this sounds like 'computer generated' analysis so, for context, it would be interesting to read what they think of others in Tech such as SWKS (great investment of mine over past year) & QRVO (merger of RFMD & TQNT both I held for 18+ months & sold just before the merger in late Dec 2014 but seems like a great buy).

    But, based upon HIMX's history, I would have to agree with Maxcroaxis. But the problem is that they don't say a bit about the future or analyze future prospects. What we do know about HIMX's future changes any valuation based solely on the history:

    + Revenue growth projected at 18.5% for 2015
    + 3+% annual dividend

    + Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Heyler named the company as his top pick in display ICs. The firm increased its price target on the stock to $12.50 and expects earnings per share of $1

    + HIMX developing a Holographics Computing Unit and also working to consolidate their WLO/CMOS/LCoS into a single unit or system on a chip

    + Apple is "looking to diversify its LCD driver IC suppliers and move away from its dependence" on Synaptics' (SYNA -1.6%) recently-acquired Renesas SP Drivers unit. Himax (HIMX -4%) and fellow Taiwanese driver suppliers Novatek and Parade Technologies are said to be "vying for orders."

    Note also that HIMX Management has recently stated:

    1) "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."

    2) "The increase was related to higher salary expenses caused by additional engineering headcount and annual salary raises and more new project tape-outs. This is in line with the repeated indications we made earlier that we intended to expand our R&D team to capture the increasing business opportunities

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Hey frankenberrylives,

    I should have written holographic processing unit and not computing unit but it was in the news articles about Microsoft's Hololens. Now, there is no tangible evidence of this....and when there is, the quick/easy money would already have been made.

    Note that I do reply to you but you still have not defended your thesis that HIMX Is over-valued here.

    Personally, I think you have 'jumped the shark' and are no longer a level-headed thinker as you are trying too hard to bash HIMX and justify your other investments.

    Comment on the real meat of my post which is:

    What we do know about HIMX's future changes any valuation based solely on the history:

    + Revenue growth projected at 18.5% for 2015
    + 3+% annual dividend

    + Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Heyler named the company as his top pick in display ICs. The firm increased its price target on the stock to $12.50 and expects earnings per share of $1

    + HIMX developing a Holographics Processing Unit and also working to consolidate their WLO/CMOS/LCoS into a single unit or system on a chip

    + Apple is "looking to diversify its LCD driver IC suppliers and move away from its dependence" on Synaptics' (SYNA -1.6%) recently-acquired Renesas SP Drivers unit. Himax (HIMX -4%) and fellow Taiwanese driver suppliers Novatek and Parade Technologies are said to be "vying for orders."

    Note also that HIMX Management has recently stated:

    1) "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."

    2) "The increase was related to higher salary expenses caused by additional engineering headcount and annual salary raises and more new project tape-outs. This is in line with the repeated indications we made earlier that we intended to expand our R&D team to capture the increasing business opportunities

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    Hey frankenberrylives,

    The fact that you see the Macroaxis as " level headed analysis" when it is just some computer generated report shows just how much hate you have for HIMX and that you are no longer a reasonable person/investor.

    Go ahead and make your case for HIMX being over valued here. Use some actual numbers.

    What you are missing is that HIMX has a whole business besides LCoS displays....and that business is profitable and pays a 3+% annual dividend.

    You also seem to think you know more than the analysts who meet with HIMX management and have price targets above $10.

    You also discount the recent news about potential business with Apple (not that that is a great thing).

    You also discount HIMX management statements about who they are collaborating with and that they are doing tape-outs as per:

    1) "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."

    2) "The increase was related to higher salary expenses caused by additional engineering headcount and annual salary raises and more new project tape-outs. This is in line with the repeated indications we made earlier that we intended to expand our R&D team to capture the increasing business opportunities

    Until you address this, my other post and give your valuations for HIMX, I just don't have time for you. I actually thought you were after the truth and good investments. But, you are clouded by emotion and seemingly hate for HIMX so you are no longer reasonable.

    Keep in mind that very little is 'proven' on any of these stocks..........and when it is, the winning stock(s) will be priced much higher.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    Hey jebediah456,

    First on HIMX, go read the various articles on Seeking Alpha about them. Especially see the one where:

    "BofA/Merrill's Daniel Heyler has named Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX) his top 2015 pick among display IC vendors, and upped his target to $12.50. He cites growing demand for 4K TV sets (they require more powerful LCD driver ICs), spurred by falling panel prices."

    Then, search out this report here as there was news posted of his estimates or search it on Google as it is telling.

    And, what is especially telling is that Apple is looking for just these products........and HIMX already has Apple assembler Foxconn as a customer.

    I have made decent money on IMOS but mostly from selling Puts on them. They are a decent company but compete in a lower margin business but have good valuations. The worry with them is that at some point, fab companies may move part of these services in-house as INTC does much of their own bumping/testing/packaging and it shows in their margins.

    I don't follow SGOC and there is little information on Yahoo about it. They do seem to be in a low margin and competitive business with no much unique technology to set them apart. I also stay away from lower revenue companies.........because the institutions stay away from them. Most institutions will not invest in companies with revenues less than $250 to $500 million per year.

    If you look at HIMX's Investor's presentation you will see that they have many product lines and many patents to protect their technology..........along with numerous customers. One needs this diversification, yet niches, in the technology business otherwise one wrong move or ??? can hurt.

    I am also looking for a good entry point on QRVO as they will do very well as did their predecessors along with SWKS & AVGO. RF companies, especially those with filters like TQNT and now QRVO, will do well as 3G content was around $0.80/phone but around $8/phone with LTE. That is why all beat and raised guidance.

  • Reply to

    Just waiting for the news to break.......

    by sk_wilson Feb 6, 2015 3:39 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    I am one who held both TQNT and RFMD and sold in late Dec 2014 just to save myself the headache of the merger (as I also had sold Put options which is a bullish position).

    I have been waiting and watching for a good re-entry point now and am surprised by all the down days on QRVO. I did not think I would have the chance to buy in below $67.

    Anyway, I think QRVO has the fundamentals.........but I also look at the chart before buying and the chart doesn't look good although there is not a lot of history for the chart.

    Long term, I think QRVO is a winner and I hope to be along for the ride. I also hold SWKS although I may be selling part of my position soon due to the larger gains I have there.

    At this point, QRVO is a solid hold.............if not a compelling buy. There are just too many positives for the company and their filter business will carry them and enhance their many other products. They just need to make steady progress on their 'promised'/projected Operating Cost Savings.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    You did not post any facts or numbers to back up your assertion for your statement that HIMX is over-valued.

    And, by the time the facts are known, the share price will be much higher.

    Go read the HIMX Investor's presentation. Go listen to the Conference Call. Go look at their numbers for revenue and earnings..........and dividends paid.

    Then, you can go back to your $35 and $55 million dollar sales companies who are nearly one product companies where things could go badly very quickly.

    I am pretty much done with you as you do not address the many other things I posted.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Hey Frankenberrylives,

    Address these statements......or do you think (or have proof) they are lies? And, actually read them as they are revealing. Then, cut the BS and address these............before you go off on tangents.

    1) "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."

    2) "The increase was related to higher salary expenses caused by additional engineering headcount and annual salary raises and more new project tape-outs. This is in line with the repeated indications we made earlier that we intended to expand our R&D team to capture the increasing business opportunities

    3) Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Heyler named the company as his top pick in display ICs. The firm increased its price target on the stock to $12.50 and expects earnings per share of $1

    4) Apple is "looking to diversify its LCD driver IC suppliers and move away from its dependence" on Synaptics' recently-acquired Renesas SP Drivers unit. Himax and fellow Taiwanese driver suppliers Novatek and Parade Technologies are said to be "vying for orders."

    The way I read these is that HIMX is:

    1) working with world leading customers....at their customer's requests (and sometimes with them paying the expenses)

    2) having new project tape-outs which mean new chips and products

    3) coming from an analyst who actually follows the company and meets with management

    4) large new customers could be coming to HIMX....for just the reason the BoA analyst likes HIMX

    Now, you can go back to thinking you know it all.....and missing the message. As Danial Boorstein wrote: "The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance.......but the illusion of knowledge".

  • Reply to

    Just waiting for the news to break.......

    by sk_wilson Feb 6, 2015 3:39 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Hey monrio1,

    One thing to do is watch the short interest in QRVO and see how it changes. Also, watch the chart. Not great things but leading indicators of where the share price could be headed.

    There were 4,138,980 shares short as of Jan 15, 2015. The short interest update for the end of Jan 2015 will be this Tuesday after market close. I say the shorts will be covering at this point and we should at least see that with the Feb 15, 2015 update later this month.

    Note that analysts have been raising targets and guidance. QRVO has also announced a share buyback program. I suspect there is, or soon will be, short covering and even institutional buying.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    Hey mgagielo1,

    At first, I thought Frankenberry was interested in learning what was not widely known....even if he was not invested in HIMX. Now, I think he is so interested in winning this debate that he misses the point of doing research and taking educated opinions to find good investments...........before all the facts are known the share price is much higher. All he says about HIMX he ignores on his own stocks.

    But, I like your second point about " Himx CEO seems eager to tell investors what they can reveal for 15."

    I was thinking that this week.....that this would be a 'follow through' on their pre-announcement for 4Q 2014 to dispel bad/negative rumors. In addition, when giving guidance for 1Q 2015, it is common to address the entire year of 2015. So, I agree that they will try to give some general guidance for the year..........which may be somewhat general due to NDA's and them not having full knowledge of their customer's plans and timing.

    But, they could at least mention their LCoS plant expansion which is seemingly being financed by the government of Taiwan............and why they would do this.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 8, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    You did not address the points I put out.

    HIMX is much more than LCoS.....and thus you have a growing, profitable company which pays a dividend. See what they are doing with CMOS, display drivers, WLO, etc., etc. Consider the BoA comments on HIMX.

    Read the statements that I posted.......as they are all hints about HIMX LCoS & WLO's.

    By the time you get proof positive on LCoS, HIMX will be much higher and you will have missed the bigger move. So, you have to go on hints and imperfect evidence.

    And, there is much imperfect evidence. Besides what I posted (HIMX Mgmt comments on collaborations), you also have INTC and GOOG investments. You have Lenovo comments, etc., etc.

    If you would be fair and really look at HIMX (rather than just LCoS), you would realize the potential.....a profitable, well respected and growing company with great products, growing revenue, etc., etc. with lower PEG.

    HIMX is about much more than LCoS......which is all upside along with HPU's, etc., etc.

    Address my points in the post rather than avoid them.

HIMX
6.22-0.040(-0.64%)Apr 24 4:00 PMEDT