Interested in what people thought of this one. I thought the Wells Fargo analyst was great pointing to slide 8 and calling Kain out as moving to the sideline and clip coupons. I believe the quote was 'Managers are paid to create alpha'. It is around 00:37:30 of the webcast if you have not heard it.
It certainly was not the love in of previous quarters that is for sure.
I hope that works for you IWB. Currently AGNC has a P/B of 0.88 vs ARR 0.78. AGNC is at least going to pay a dividend. ARR might not. Q3 results are tainted because of the bald one's head fake. AGNC conference call will be interesting.
ARR is obviously going to have to cut the div big time. From 5 cents to 3 cents? 2 cents? 1 cent? Maybe no dividend.
The interesting part of this will be just how big a discount will the market knock it down to. If the breakup value is $5.26 how low can it go? 60% of BV? I doubt that but it be interesting seeing where the floor is.
The Company distributes dividends based on its estimate of taxable earnings, not based on net income calculated in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP").
Ahh....$3.8 million pretty much pays the preferred divs. So what is left for the common shareholders? Good ol' ARR taking the mreit sector to a new low..
That $21 tops assumes the 10 year settles in around 2.50%. I am not so sure about that. I say ride the wave baby. Earnings are just a week away anyway.
Mind blown. Are you aware that they already cut to .70c and @ 22 70c would be ~12.727%?
Yep. yahoo doesn't allow you to edit a post and I was lazy. I think you get the gist of it either way. I don't really understand your serious concern on MTGE's hedges given the current environment but I'll let you assess risk anyway you want. Good luck with or without an MTGE long.
I guess that is the risk. We know the BV will be maintained so did they chunk the earnings to preserve it?
Let's put it this way:
In the worst case scenario MTGE cuts their div to 70 cents. That gives a yield of over 13% in an environment where rates are coming down dramatically. Given the current environment, do you think the market punishes MTGE for a marginal cut if BV is maintained or increased? I just don't see it. Nor do I think they cut.
But I guess we shall all see next week.
At this point I think you hold MTGE into earnings next week. This thing may hit $22 if earnings are strong and it is hard to see a negative reaction to earnings given its current discount to BV.
Oh Noooooooo !!! Sell all mreits now because he doesn't think they can handle the taper !!!!
Earth to Jim....the taper never happened.
Price won't last? MTGE is a $21 stock. $22 with a good earnings report. Personally I'd rather own it than the s&p 500. Not really sure why that is at an all time high. The last week has been bizarro world.
You wouldn't have bought back at 19.65 would you? We may need you to sell again and go back to MITT :-)