I note that you have made quite a few good calls re the price movement of GST.
i also note that we have a gap from the close of 3/31 of $5.47 to the open on 4/1 at $5.72. Chartists would say that gap must be filled at some time. Personally , if that gap has to be filled, I would rather see it happen sooner than later, as it looks like the fall is setting up for very difficult market environment. Always hard to know these things , especially timing, but perhaps it gets filled on the upcoming earnings report which is due in a few weeks?
What do you think?
Looks like MHR and GST were both subject of the old "pump and dump".
GST is fairly valued in the $6's . It is neither undervalued or overvalued.
you said " I don't think any harm was done."
that's questionable ( I have reason to believe differently) and even if no harm was done, but the opportunity to do good is somewhat squandered , it is similarly not the best thing.
dragon, I could give you details privately that I am not willing to post on this public board, but suffice it to say that I have reason to believe that some harm was made by that specific remark ( in the broad sense I have defined, ie lost chance to do good because you turn off those who hear so that they don't take you seriously and or decide they can't trust your word..
Keep in mind that impressions , once formed, have a tendency to remain
I don't know about you, but I would desire that the CEO of a company I am investing in , be viewed in the best possible light.
Let me ask you this, have you ever been to a car dealership or other place where salesmen are the person you deal with? Have you not experienced some salesmen who clearly are strong in what they are trying to do, but who give you that unpleasant feeling in your stomach, which decreases your trust?
Russ's strength imho is in his deal making ability , he is a great negotiator, but some of the other areas , well , are not up to that same level,
I think it makes a big difference.
I accept your correction of my characterization of the Porter $24 NAV comment to hyperbole rather than irresponsible. Perhaps I should not have used that word. Hyperbole means exaggeration and his remarks certainly fall in that category in a very extreme manner. My point is that I believe that a less extreme exaggeration would actually be more effective in attracting the investment community. For example, let's say you are wanting to buy a house. The owner is asking $500,000. but will take $475,000 If you offer him $200,000, it just makes him think , this person is not serious , and he won't even want to deal with you. If you offer $425,000, he might be more likely to take you seriously and begin the negotiation process. So my point is that I would prefer that the CEO be more circumspect so that he is taken seriously by the investment community. By all means, sell the GST story in a positive light, just do it in a manner that it can be taken seriously by the people who ultimately you will need to fund your stock and debt offerings.
That being said, admittedly they have attracted some money that has come into the stock since the analyst day. I think that is from the substance of the presentation, not the hyperbolic remark
if you do not like my input, please put me on ignore.
If you are not interested in a professional approach and are not interested in discussing or contributing to the agenda the two new BOD members will be advocating, then by all means put me on ignore.
why do you think we want input on the board of directors?
I plan on being part of the process.
listen to his words again
he did not say what your conclusion is.
He said something significantly different.
He said that "his personal opinion" is that GST has a NAV of $24 a share" "we are trading at around $6 so it is worth your while to take a look at us".
Even if his "personal opinion" is correct (which it is not), that would not be the same as saying GST shares are worth that amount. You would have to discount the figure by a number of factors, such as the huge capital expenditure needed to monetize those assets, the time value of money and interest paid, and the multitude of risks.
What I believe Russ was doing , is trying to create excitement to get people to invest. He is participating at these conferences , with the foreknowledge that GST will be raising large amount of capital, selling the GST story is important to attract the money from investors needed to buy the anticipated new common share issuance and new debt issuance etc needed to fund their capital program in the intermediate term. (not needed immediately but will be done as sure as the sun comes up in the east),
I am hoping they can get GST shares to trade above $7 for a sustained time , so in the months to come , they will be able to convince institutional investors to buy a secondary offering of common shares at $7 or so. That is the desired effect that Porter is trying to get to.
Personally I would prefer him to be more circumspect and not be so extreme as I personally believe that would be more likely to convince smart investors to take GST seriously. When you go too extreme like he did yesterday , imho, it is a turn off to smart money But I understand what he is doing.
Imho, Porter's remark is irresponsible. Reminds me of what Aubrey Mclendon used to dom and we know what that resulted in. The point is that you cannot use that kind of value metric without also saying what it will cost to get those assets out of the ground , and then deducting that from the value., and you have to discount the time value of money , and you also have to discount for the risks. So it is irresponsbile silly talk on Porter's part, and makes me nervous.
you are wrong ed, re. the revolver. The agreement lasting to a date in the future does not mean that the revolver is supposed to be used as the mainstay for ongoing capex and corp expenses. Because the lender can call the revolver in under certain circumstances at times unfavorable for the company, and to depend on that shaky foundation for continued funding is COMPLETELY irresponsible. This is COMMON knowledge amongprofessionals, and even most reasonably knowledgeable amateurs. So for you to take the position opposite to this UNQUESTIONABLE reality and state in the same post that I am worthy of a cesspool is mighty high level ridiculousness.
It really seems to stick in your craw that you have been shown to be very amateurish,, but that is no reason or justification for your poor behavior.
You did not provide well stats to support your thesis
And your cut and paste quote and your misunderstanding about the revolver only proves my point. You are the type of person who gets their information from yahoo finance or other sources and misinterprets it due to your lack of acumen
As I said before , talk to Mr Gerlich or Mr. Porter or any of the sell side analysts for GST or other Eand P's and they will educate you properly.
What , they won't take your call? That is one thing, among many that is different for an amateur like you from a professional.
I was disappointed in your post to me,
Your behavior took a notch down when you attempted (poorly) to tear my post without just cause and then you topped it off by making false accusations against me!
early april means early april , not " nothing " as you said, and to spud a well is neither a positive or a negative. One has to wait for the results of many wells, not just one , to make an evaluation. If one drills a well and it is dry or poor that is a negative if is is mediocre, that is neutral, if it is superior, tha's a positive OBVIOUSLY
my information (factual by researching the wells stats) is that GST's best wells have been made by their jv partners, in the hunton as well as the marcellus. Please post your factual information that is contrary,
Re the borrowing base, amazing faux pas on your part, and so disappointing as you are a CPA!
the borrowing base refers to the revolver. STANDARD conventional wisdom is the revolvers are to be used only for temporary funding gap needs. They CAN NOT by their very design and covenants be used for ongoing funding. So as GST draws down on their revolver this year, they WILL need to find other funds to pay it off. THAT IS A FACT, not an opinion. Talk to CFO Gerlich or CEO Porter who can confirm this. You should be ashamed of yourself. Remember in the financial crisis how many stocks got absolutely killed when the news leaked that they had drawn down their revolvers?
Then your claim that an 11,000 utica leasehold is not small compared to the other acreage more than 10 times the size is UNTRUE, and that is being kind to you.
You owe me an apology , especially for false accusations. I don't mind if you have different opinions than me, but you have no right to denigrate me or my statments and make false accusations. I carefully research before I post.
dragon, we are not close. Right now the 200 MA is around $4.75, and the 50 day is around $6 , so the averages are about $1.25 apart. The EMA 's are about a $1 apart which may be what Gatr was referring to. To clarify Gatr's response to you ( and I believe Gatr will agree if and when he sees this clarification), I don't think he meant to communicate that the phenomen he tracks is around a $1 lower than where the stock is now, I believe he meant that the averages were about a $1 apart ( actually a bit more by the sma, the ema is a little less).
You can track it yourself right here on yahoo finance, pull up a 2 yr chart of GST, and then select technical indicators and choose 50 and 200 SMA for line 1 and line 2 respectively. Do the same for the EMA if you want.
I also agree with Gatr that it is not a good an indicator for stocks like GST , they can give false signals. Also note from the chart that the 50 and 200 MA's are as far or farther apart than they were 9 months ago, and that was still a good time to buy, etc.
thanks for defending me. It is unfortunate that so many people are so paranoid that they cannot accept any comment that does not fall into the cheerleader" this is going to the moon right away " type.
And it is sad that they feel that because they are anonymous that they are justified in forgetting any modicum of conventional politeness and instead respond with name calling and false accusations.
My view is that we should be striving to help each other with any reasonable information we can get. For goodness sake, those that we"are in the war " against , are getting information. It seems to me that information would be welcomed . Because I have a significant amount invested in GST, I take actions to learn as much as I can from whatever source I can source legally. By so doing , it helps me make the best decision in my investment activity , as well as give peace of mind with whatever position I have established. I don't blow smoke, I cannot and will not reveal every detail of who I communicate with, when and how because it might make people less willing to share with me. I don't ask for insider information, but I ask questions of people in various stations and then collate the infor to attempt to deduce a logical conclusion, one that is likely to coincide with reality. That is my approach, and the haters are completely wrong in their accusations.
I am long, having established the bulk of my long position when GST settled with CHK last year. I established my position by doing the same things I have described above and would love for others to do the same and help me and others in our endeavors.
no longer retiring and the other attacker both owe me an apology. I may not get it, but it would be the right thing. They should be thanking me instead of attacking.
Sir, simply stated, you are incorrect.
I don't blow smoke, I have many contacts and I own many GST shares.
I challenge you to do as I have, to speak with analysts, investment bankers and appropriate others. if you can do so, you will learn that I speak the truth.
Why are so many on these boards afraid to welcome a professional point of view , but instead rush to accept the amateur blind cheerleading posts?
Tell me, no longerretiring, why?
And what is wrong , in your opinion with the true material I have just presented, and have presented in the past. Instead of calling me names and issuing false accusations, consider doing the right thing, the mature thing and deal with the issues. I believe we should help each other get at the truth, rather than fool ourselves, that means accepting the truth , including all positive and those things not as positive. What is wrong with that?
Ed, yes saw that but it is not news as it is exactly what was said by the company in the march 13 earnings press release.
Here is the quote from that date.
"We plan to spud our first Utica Shale test well in early April"
I don't think that investors should get too excited about the Utica for GST. First of all they have only have leases in 11,000 acres. secondly the wells are very expensive and technically difficult and to this date, GST's drilling acumen in operated wells have been less than stellar. GST's best wells have been drilled by their JV partners. They will have to develop the Marcellus and Hunton to move the needle significantly.
I am actually a bit worried by their Utica venture, with the expense and the limited cash available, it appears to be risky to go after the Utica. And it raises the question, if the Marcellus and Hunton are as good as managment says, why not spend their limited funds there , instead of looking to the small Utica?
after reading the presentation, I agree with Dragon that nothing new was disclosed, & a search of the sec filings confirms no new filing.
IMHO, meeting was abruptly called because in the wake of the very disappointing Hunton operated wells results, management realized the stock was likely to fall back down below $5 & did not want to give up that mark without a fight.
Currently GST has@ 7 analysts following them (Iberia lost their analyst that was covering), and 16 analysts including those already following were invited to attend the meeting yesterday. The hope is that one or more of the analysts attending will pick up coverage at some time. The problem is its hard to attract analysts from decent sized firms with such a small stock float. It is not enticing to either the investment banking side or the client side when it is so difficult to buy or sell shares due to the thinness of the shares outstanding. As such, I believe that GST will have to sooner or later (hopefully sooner) issue more common shares to become attractive to a wider audience of following AND of ownership.
Not only for the reason given above, but the company is also clearly underfunded relative to their proposed drilling inventories for the next few years and raising money will be needed anyway. I realize that Porter is hesitant to issue shares at too low of a price, but I understand he is softening his view because the bankers/institutions have been schooling that they will not buy into the company until they issue more common. It makes so much more sense than ratcheting up the debt leverage more than it already is. So that is why the hunton limestone disappointing results is such a headwind, as it was hoped that they could get the shares up , so they could issue them at above $7. I recommend not buying on rallies , especially near old highs , as you will get undercut by the 2ndary offering
i should add that the people who bought the 725,000 block on the close on monday were also buying most of the shares as the stock was trading lower the same day on monday and perhaps the week before. So they likely have already made more than a million dollars on that unfair advantage.
you raise good questions.
I don't know if today's meeting's main focus is really "news", perhaps it is mainly an attempt to spread what is already public information to a wider audience. The press release did outline what today's presentation would be about, right?
And you ask why would the people I referred to buy the 725,000 shares at the close on monday at $5.47,
that one is easy to answer, because they were able to sell all of those shares at a nice profit yesterday and today etc based upon the "come" that there was this event.
And let's face it, in today's market, the short term trading profits like that do dominate the action. Would not you like to have had the info and made that easy quick money?
keep in mind though, that it does not mean that GST itself was at fault. It could have been people at the investment firm etc who acted on their own without any intentional complicity by GST. I can't say as I don't have direct knowledge. But it is kind of strange to have an analyst meeting and announce it one day before.
that is what I thought too, and is why I will not be the one to contact the SEC, as I own a lot of GST shares.
Still, it bothers me that people can so easily get away with this type of clearly unfair thing, and this not an isolated instance, I have reason to believe it happens frequently , very frieguently.