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Gastar Exploration Inc. Message Board

hddriven 53 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2014 5:49 PM Member since: Jun 2, 2012
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  • Reply to

    to the jealous amateurs

    by hddriven Jun 24, 2014 3:54 PM
    hddriven hddriven Jun 24, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    au contraire,
    you have described yourself, NOT me. You hang out here, not me.
    You feel the inferiority so much, you have to put me down to feel better about yourself. And if you have thrown in your hat with the clueless lying energetlc77,, then it it is obvious that you are quite the dunce.
    just look at the name you chose for you id, "the serious investor"" hmmph hmmph, talk about an inferiority complex needing to be countered by a self appelation .
    Yes, you are "serious", seriously inferior.

    Cheers!

  • I have to just laugh at you. no longer retiring says " he waited til afternoon to post his am trade'
    I posted WEEKS ago my plan, I said that if and when they were successful in the PUMP of GST common shares, one should not chase it. MANY times I have stated about my discipline. Days ago when the price broke out, I reiterated my plan to lighten up. Just the other day I said I had begun to lighten up, and quoted a 5 % sales at a certain price range. So it is just following along with what I have previously stated. If people were silliy enough to keep bidding up the stock, I would lighten up in a disciplined manner. So the onus is on you , you jealous low life amateur , no longer retiring. I have been upright, but it is ridiculous to expect that I , (or anyone else) has to give minute by minute accounting of what they have done with their trades. One is not obligated to give ANY information about ones' personal trades.
    So you jealous amateurs, I say, "up yours"

  • sold another 5% of common GST holdings this am above $9. ( have now sold 23 percent of common holdings and about half of the preferred holdings).
    I don't know where the stock will go , but I have learned to follow a disciplined approach that over the decades has been proved to be successful over and over and OVER.
    I think RP is being silly foolish not to have already offered common shares in a secondary offering to capture this lovefest, and it is adding more power to my approach to harvest profits.
    I am not sure whether to think the common or the preferred is the more overextended. At least with the common, if you get great news some day, you can benefit by the company being worth more, and thus a justified share price rise. With the preferred, they are just interest coupon vehicles which are fixed in place and could actually get hurt if the ultimate "good thing" happens, ie a buyout of the whole company at a premium to the common shareprice. So I think it is downright silly to buy the preferred's at the prices they are trading at right now. The B shares are trading more than $3 above their liquidation call value of $25. The dividend is $2.68 per year, that means someone buying at $28 plus is paying well over a year's worth of dividends as a premium to the liquidation price the company or an acquirer would pay to redeem them, Yes the yield is attractive, if 4 months from now EOG buys out GST, they can buy the preferred B shares back at $25, and if you paid $28 plus , you lose big.

  • Reply to

    Hey Gatr

    by hddriven Jun 19, 2014 10:59 AM
    hddriven hddriven Jun 20, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    gatr,
    I heard the same rumor about calling the preferred A's too. So I consulted with appropriate source and now believe it is a false rumor. The company has stated that it needs to raise capital for future cap ex, ( an obvious need without them needing to so state, because of all the great drilling opportunities, you need cash to exploit them), so it does not make one iota of sense to buy back the preferred A's which have a fairly low interest rate. You know that there are significant underwriting costs to issuing debt/ preferred's , common stock and if you have one in place that does not have a maturity date, and you still need the money, it would be silly to buy them back at par and then have to issue new ones at a discount to par etc. So while the A's become eligible for redemption next week, I don't anticipate it happening anytime in the foreseeable future, based upon the above logic .
    So if the rumor is the reason that the B's have been bid up, I would think that after it becomes obvious that the A's are not being called, the B's would likely ose some of the bid caused by the rumor.

  • hddriven by hddriven Jun 19, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I started taking some profits yesterday ( sold 7 percent of common holding @ avg $8.22 and another 5 percent at $8.40 avg early this morning.
    I won't sell all, but just can't miss this opportunity to lock down some profits and since they are now long term gains , the tax treatment is favorable.
    I am also thinking that the preferred's have gotten silly. With the common, at least you have the benefit of growth in the value of the company, and if the company is taken over someday you could further benefit, but with the preferred, a takeover would actually be a negative. I of course , like you , have liked the preferred B series as it has a higher yielding dividend, but am thinking that it too has gotten to silly levels. What are you thoughts on selling the preferred B shares? I love the divi, but am getting nervous with the silly level of the shareprice.

  • Reply to

    hello folks

    by hddriven Jun 5, 2014 12:54 PM
    hddriven hddriven Jun 18, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    you want comments?
    ok, the pump is working, and people are putting their money into the stock.
    Today, I began to sell a few shares, (have sold about 5 percent of my holdings today, at prices north of $8.15). I am not going to let the euphoria distract me. Having done this for decades successfully, I learned long ago, that keeping to a discipline is vital to success.

  • hddriven by hddriven Jun 6, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    your responses are so predictable.
    it just shows your jealousy
    its too bad, because I could have been inclined to share info and insight that would be useful to you, but because you are so obsessive/compulsive holding on to your angt against me, I am not inclined to help you in any way, so stay in your state of darkness, its fine with me.

  • Reply to

    hello folks

    by hddriven Jun 5, 2014 12:54 PM
    hddriven hddriven Jun 6, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    the response yesterday by the amateurs on this board is the type of response that I referred to in the post, why I decided to stop posting , ie the fatigue factor.
    to put the record straight (little doubt jealous amateurs will not see it the way it really is)
    I posted multiple times that GST was being pumped, with a certain goal in mind. I described the process which included the analyst day(s) Serious investor DISTORTED my meaning when I said that the process of the pump (which included the analyst days) would be a selling opportunity. How did he distort it?. His small minded categorizing it , wrongly thinking I was saying that the selling opportunity was confined to the one day of the analyst day meeting/ clearly with the comments that I anticipated the pump to get "well over $7" or as I recall one time posting that they would like to get the stock up to $8ish so they could lay the groundwork for selling a secondary offering, which is still yet to come. I even commented of the risk to management of waiting til the Utica results , which we will have to see how it plays out yet.
    So my context was not confined to the analyst day only, but to a longer time - the pump process, of course I did not claim to know the exact price it would get pumped to, as it turned out, the high of $7.92 (so far) was indeed in line with the "well over $7 and or $7.50-8 " i had opined that appeared a goal for the planned secondary offering. clearly more than a one day process.
    Unlike amateurs who often sell or buy their complete position in one fell swoop, professionals take days or weeks to do so. especially on a thinly traded stock like GST where it is difficult to buy or sell a position without affecting the shareprice.

  • hddriven by hddriven Jun 5, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    I have not been posting here of late , mainly because it was fatiguing having to justify things for the amateurs who RULE this board. Things have been working out exactly as I said. I stated to the board clearly and more than once that when they pumped GST common shares "well above $7" (my exact words as I recall), that it should not be chased and in fact would be a fine selling opportunity.
    And here is one tidbit before I go back to silence, Yaontwo, you frequently state that "it is only small shareholders selling". presumably because you look at the trading (time and sales data) and see mostly small lots of 100, or 200 shares at a time printing etc? If that is the case, I will tell you , that your assumption is without basis in reality, because in this modern computer driven day and age, PROFESSIONALS who are buying and selling large amount of shares use programs to buy and sell execute their trades in those small increments. most often.
    Cheers!

  • Reply to

    theseriousinvestor

    by hddriven May 16, 2014 2:50 PM
    hddriven hddriven May 16, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    and there other risks to waiting too long, In case you have not noticed, the general market is at risk from many factors, macro economic, geopolitical (Ukraine vote coming up and what will result after that, other areas), fed uncertainty, seasonal factors etc etc, so GST has a big decision to make. They know they need and want to raise the money by a secondary common share offering. Do they risk losing this good opportunity to do so, and then maybe the stock is back down and the chance is gone , for a long time?
    And on the Utica well result, with their poor record of operated results, that may appropriately on their mind as far as whether to do the offering before or after.
    I don't know when they will pull the trigger to do the stock offering, maybe they don't know themselves YET, but it is likely coming relatively soon. All the signs are there.

  • Reply to

    theseriousinvestor

    by hddriven May 16, 2014 2:50 PM
    hddriven hddriven May 16, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    a desired time frame is one aspect, but there are other factors of the set up that are important which can influence the time aspect.
    Can you think of what that might be?

  • Reply to

    Use widsom

    by hddriven May 16, 2014 8:24 AM
    hddriven hddriven May 16, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    My sense is that they are working with their investment bankers, (ie the companies that cover GST) to pump up the shares so they can do the secondary issuance .
    I am not predicting doom for the company or saying to sell the shares. I am merely pointing out the reality and the common sense caution to avoid buying on the pump and using discipline and patience to instead wait to buy on the inevitable pullback after the pump is done after having accomplished its purpose.

  • hddriven hddriven May 15, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    yw mdw

  • "With multiple developmental & exploration catalysts on the horizon we think the time is now to start taking a position in GST given its compelling value proposition.
    GST discussed a few new non-operated Lower Hunton-targeted wells that had solid rates in line with the 436,000 boe EUR level & expects to announce more results later this month that we believe could give us a better understanding of the region's value.
    In the last few days we have seen strong announcements from multiple operators in the dry gas section of the Utica that shine a bright light on GST's 11,400 net acre position just into W VA. Firstly a company also drilling in W VA yesterday announced that it had logged the Point Pleasant formation on its acreage & it looked similar to its recent large well result; earlier this week a company commented on seeing the potential for 500 ft spacing. These strong results de-risk the play & boost excitement for GSTs initial Utica results which are slated for July. The two above announcements give us more confidence in the productive potential of Gastar's wells & the potential to boost its inventory from the nearly 60 locations to over 100 for future development. With results of its first well slated for July& a second well planned immediately following we feel things are lining up nicely for GST to become a force in the Utica entering 2015.
    GST has done a nice job of acquiring good properties & divesting non-core assets to build a strong asset base while not paying too much to become financially constrained. That leaves the company today with a liquidity position of nearly $150 million that should fund its 2014 activity; as results from multiple new areas are known we may see GST tap the markets to grow further.
    Reiterate Buy rating $9 target on GSTr given its catalyst-rich story & compelling valuation. We believe Gastar has multiple positive catalysts coming that should help drive the stock higher ......."

  • hddriven by hddriven May 14, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    I don't want to be misunderstood. I believe that GST has substantial upside potential I also believe that RP would convince more people to invest in GST if he modified style of communication to less exaggeration, more circumspect, more underpromise and overdeliver.
    ie let's take the Utica GST is in the process of drilling their first Utica well. They presented considerable info from a scientific , geologic angle& anecdotal evidence of other co's success ., & made a convincing argument why GST should have success. They stated that GST's leasehold is in the core of the core of the Utica. THAT IS GREAT. They have made what they view as a conservative estimate of the first well's EUR etc That is fine too.
    Now they should drill the well and and the next one and produce results, and believe me investors will come, and some before the results. But RP would not leave it at that.
    He mentioned that a competitor was working with downspacing of well locations to the 660 or even 500 ft , as compared to GST's conservative 1000 ft spacing model. Its smart and absolutely fine for RP to bring this subject up. He should have said, that if GST could determine the correct downspacing to get the optimal IRR (internal rate of recovery) for the play, that it would add upside to profits as well as proved reserves etc. That would have added one more reason to believe in the Utica's upside for GST investor.
    Instead he made the extreme statement that if they downspaced to 500 ft it would double eur's & reserves, which anyone with experience knows is not true. The problem is , upon hearing a clearly wrong thing like that, it risks doubt about the true unexaggerated and conservative things he presented earlier, which could undo convincing new investors.
    The sliver lining is that it gives the rest of us more time to accumulate GST at low prices, I suppose

  • 1. Management believes GST leased properties have very large potential.
    2. Managment's plan is to try to delineate that potential by a drilling and completing a combination of third party operated wells and some operated wells
    3. Managment will strive to use limited funds wisely and raise more money at the appropriate time and means.
    I believe item 1, and I want to see the results emphasized.

  • Reply to

    Conference commentary

    by hddriven May 14, 2014 2:07 PM
    hddriven hddriven May 14, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    5 MG (CFO) gave his portion, much more reasonable , IMO
    6. RP , finally spoke about their disappointment with their operated well results in the Hunton, saying we have to do better, we will "figure it out" etc. Thank you Russ, that is what we need to SEE you do, please stop the 'big" what we can do talk and start "DOING it and proving it. That is what we need.
    Stop flying all over and trying to sell the story so hard and so obviously overexagerated because 1. people get turned off by such obvious extreme exaggeration, 2. it costs a lot of money to do so and perhaps most importantly 3. because when you are doing that you are taking yourselves away from the actual doing, which is what we need. We need you to be home and at the job, guiding the drilling etc we need operataional excellence on all levels. Please!

  • Reply to

    Conference commentary

    by hddriven May 14, 2014 2:07 PM
    hddriven hddriven May 14, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    4. RP speaking about the Merrimac and Woodford, talking about 100's of drilling locations etc, and we are going to derisk etc. My goodness, the play is completely unproven, they have not drilled one well yet, and the ones they "plan" to particpate in will be by a third party operator. It is absurd to speak so definitely about these plays at this point.

  • Reply to

    Conference commentary

    by hddriven May 14, 2014 2:07 PM
    hddriven hddriven May 14, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    3. Russ was just talking about the Hunton, and very noteworthy, he referred to ONLY non operated wells, (those operated by Husky by he did not mention the name or bring attention to the fact that he was only talking about the non operated wells) He completely excluded the results from the 3 Gastar operated wells which are not only all below the published type curve , but clearly non economic. RP spoke glowingly about the non operated wells (which is in itself a large exageration), but of course the GST operated wells have been dismal. Then he turned the time over to his mid con geologist, and interupted him and speaking about the area of AMI, he used the term "we" are drilling the wells there in such and such a manner , when in fact it is not GST who is doing that drilling, but it is Husky.
    The mid con geologist speaking re wehlu, says we have assigned "no value" to south , but that we are confident about what they can do there ( but how can they be, they have drilled zero wells there, no one else has either (that is new horizontal wells, there are old vertical wells on the property).
    This is typical of the hyped presentations GST has been giving this year. They speak very extremely about potential of what they can do, citing what others have done, or what they "feel" they can do, but they have either not done anything, or what they have done. (3 operated wells in the Hunton) has been dismal. So how can they justify such "big" talk?
    Even in the marcellus, what have they drilled in the last year? Their jv partner has done some, but not much, and GST has not done anything. They have talked about it, my have they talked, but where is the actual drilling? nothing yet. Russ , we need less talk, and more action, and then we need that action to produce hard fact results. We don't need hyped language, "very encouraging " , we need cold hard numbers

  • have been listening to the conference since it began.
    1. the pdf presentation appears to be the same as from the april 2 analyst day
    2. Porter just made one of his typical overexagerated statements. He was speaking about spacing of wells in the Utica etc/ and he said if they could decrease the spacing from 1000 ft to 500 ft that would potentially double the number of drilling locations, (that could be close to being true), but then he followed that by saying that would increase the production and reserves by two times (absolutely false, because when you downspace , even if you have done it "optimally" you can increase your eur's but only to a small degree because obviously at some point to start "stealing" some of the production from the closest neighboring well locations). Also obviously you increase costs by having to drill more wells, so there is a law of diminishing returns when you downspace from both factors. There is an optimal spacing to be attempted to learn of and seek to accomplish but there is no magic involved, the gains are incrremental , not on the order of doubling. (that was a whopper even for RP)

GST
8.24+0.13(+1.60%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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