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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

hddriven 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 19, 2014 1:14 PM Member since: Jun 7, 2013
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  • Reply to

    GST grossly undervalued

    by marcellusgashound Nov 19, 2014 7:10 AM
    hddriven hddriven Nov 19, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    marcellus,
    no offense, but you post is filled with "hot air".
    where did you get the idea?
    from Russ Porter, the snake oil salesman?
    GST is not grossly undervalued , especially in light of the real world energy markets.
    I defy you to put down in black and white your so called metrics.
    Listen I would love you to be right, but it is tiring to hear the bs pumping over and over when it just is not true. The market is telling us loud and clear what is real.

  • Reply to

    Andurand on oil

    by arnoldboils Nov 15, 2014 2:15 PM
    hddriven hddriven Nov 17, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    Andurand is excellent.
    Sometimes we humans have a tendency to overcomplicate things. The problem is that there is just too much supply relative to the demand. If OPEC cuts, they will only be hurting their longer term prospects , as any cut they do, will be filled in by increasing production elsewhere, the U.S., Russia , etc. If they cut, they won't honor the cuts, they will cheat . I think it is helpful to not get caught up in what the official announcement of the nov 27 meeting is, but to focus on the bigger picture, which is outlined above. OPEC knows this, so no matter what they say on nov 27, they will keep producing. It is the only way they can prosper, because if they keep producing at a high level, the low oil price will force higher cost producers to doing the cutting. That is in OPEC's interest. That is what they will do, NO MATTER what they say on Nov 27. Andurand knows that and it is essentially what he is saying.

  • hddriven hddriven Nov 14, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    You may be correct about the Saudis, ( interesting that when I was the first one to bring up the topic, I was gang attacked), but it is not a certainty. Even if it is their intent, they will likely "surprise" the market by cutting production soon, to keep the market honest, and stabilize the price of oil. When they do, oil which is now piled in on the short side, will have a strong rally.
    Re GST, remember that a fairly low percentage of their production is oil. Their production guidance for 2015 is 44-48 percent liquids, of that much is natural gas liquids, so oil represents even less of a percentage than the 44-48 So the price of oil, especially considering their hedges will not wreck their income statement as you suggest. Next year their income statement will likely be higher in terms of earnings and cash flow , than this year, even with the low oil price environment.

  • Reply to

    the BHI takeover talks

    by marcellusgashound Nov 13, 2014 5:08 PM
    hddriven hddriven Nov 14, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    marcellus,
    perhaps you now understand things better. Because you did not join their ranks of attacking me, and spoke civilly, you immediately were unfairly gang attacked by the "mob". You see why others have retreated and choose to email me privately.
    Then they called you a liar for stating the perfectly plausible thing, that you son trained under Holditch at Texas A&M. Let's see, Holditch was a professor there for more than 35 years! Including chair of the whole program for about 8 years. What a wild idea that someone;s son might have trained under him there! LOL

    They are rabble , #$%$, lowlifes
    you can do what you want, but after first trying your method of either civility or ignoring , and being gang attacked incessantly, I sometimes fight fire with fire.

  • today is an example , ONCE again confirming my view, given on the day of the earnings cc ie that one did not need to chase rallies on GST. that there would be chances to buy on pullbacks and recommending buying shares below $4. stating that the shares would likely trade or be valued by the market in the near term at aprox $4 plus or minus 10 perceent
    The foolish amateur McGoo, and the equally clueless poster nolongerretiring who joined with McGoo, in ridiculing and making jokes to each other at my expense re my view are ONCE again shown to HAVE THEIR STUPID FEET IN THEIR STUPID MOUTHS. No big deal, this has only happened a couple of dozen times. They had the nerve to laugh and guffaw and joke at me, a vastly superior person, and tsk tsk, now the laugh, ONCE AGAIN is on them.
    These clueless amateurs apparently don't realize how difficult it is, in such a dynamic market, and what a great feat it is to have correctly given an analysis that has held water for this long.
    Its ok, I am not angry, I am constantly making money at the expense of my enemies. I used to feel sorry for them, but their misbehavior is so egregious, that I now prefer to feel determined to keep eating their lunch, ,
    I am buying today , as the shares under $4 are just plain silly and represent great value
    On a related note, the insider buy yesterday by Holditch.
    Does this board know who Stephen A Holditch is?

    I do.
    I suggest it would be worthwhile to research the man Stephen A Holditch. Personally I would love to see him replace Porter as CEO. Not saying it would happen but it is a measure of the respect I have for the man.

  • hddriven by hddriven Nov 7, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    I realize I can not satisfy the emotions of those who for whatever reason have chosen to view me as an enemy. That is their choice and I honestly believe they are making a mistake. I will continue to post to answer the queries of those who are emailing me or who act civilly on this board .
    I am listening to the cc as I post now.
    My view on GST and the recent actions
    1. the reduction in capex was a very wise and prudent move. I fully support it.
    As they have said on the call , it should give confidence to all stakeholders, ie those holding the common stock, debt and the preferred shares .
    re the common, my view is that it is a strong buy under $4. I would still rate it a buy if it were to rise to the $4 to $4.30 level, and rate it an accumulate between $4.30 to $4.60ish. At $5 I would go to neutral assuming the current environment is existing or only slightly improved.
    I think the debt and the preferred shares are screaming buys, especially after this capex reduction. They are both money good.

  • Reply to

    Re Earnings estimates for 2015

    by hddriven Nov 6, 2014 5:47 PM
    hddriven hddriven Nov 7, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    I have not completed my analysis to give an precise estimate to answer your question, but my strong impression is that they should be able to meet their guidance easily.

  • they are much too high, they will need to be revised downwards.
    My post from from oct 13 predicted that we could see a relief rally when GST announced that it would cut capex. We are seeing that in after hours , right now.
    But because the estimates will have to be revised downward , the prodution guidance cut, and the looming uncertainty that the energy markets could even fall from here, I am inclined to believe that professionals will use any rally to lighten up their long positions, selling into any rally.

  • Reply to

    Re the press release

    by hddriven Nov 6, 2014 5:04 PM
    hddriven hddriven Nov 6, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    once again the clueless and understandably bewildered amateur Mcgoo shows his complete lack of class and DISHONESTY.
    "he does not believe I posted a prediction the 2015 capex reduction etc" or the oil drop and the resultant decrease of economics on GST's holding etc
    Here is an excerpt of my oct 13 post titled "to clarify made at 2:33pm
    "Importantly, I have reason to believe that management will be conservative with their budget, I would anticipate that they will rein in their capital expenditure plans for 2015.........."
    All one has to do is click on my id and go back and read my posts from oct 13 and oct 7 ,
    Mcgoo , once again , you owe an apology, not that I expect it or care. It just shows what a lack of class you possess.

  • A short time ago, after the secondary offering and the beginning of the needed correction to the oil market, I told the board that GST would be forced to cut cap ex for 2015. (of course I was given flak for it).
    Now it is official, proving me correct once again, and the corresponding decrease in production guidance , along with the dilution from the secondary offering, explains the rationality of the shareprice correction we have seen. We will have to see how the markets play out over the months and quarters to come, but bottom line, based on the available information in the energy markets and in today's press release, a shareprice @ $4 plus or minus 10 percent seems to be a reasonable valuation currently.

  • hddriven by hddriven Oct 17, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    there is still a large short position that did not cover during the offering, and they have large profits. With the backdrop of their finances being enriched, they are attacking the stock right now as I post, using bravado , and realizing that with the recent deep swoon, that psychology is tending to making people nervous and willing to sell.
    I would not recommend giving into their tactics and giving your shares away so cheaply.
    IMHO, GST is a buy under $5

  • Reply to

    Serious investor

    by hddriven Oct 14, 2014 11:05 AM
    hddriven hddriven Oct 16, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    seriousinvestor,
    thank you for your reply, however , imho, the whole tenor of your post is still maintaining your sticking your chin out.
    You and your buddies are like junior high school basketball players on a schoolyard trash talking the guy in the car, parked nearby, not realizing that it is Lebron James in the car. Yes, that is correct. I have more knowledge and acumen in the tip of my little finger than you and your buddies have in all your bodies combined.
    Sorry, but that is the way it is.
    Once again, I graciously held out the olive leaf as a magnanimous gesture , . But in view of your response, I see that you are not interested .

    As far as Mcgoo's ridiculous characterization that judges the merits of a poster by the popularity of his posts as shown by thumbs down or up, knowledge and acumen and profitable investing/trading are not subject to childish popularity antics. If Warren Buffet anonymously posted on this board and told the truth along the lines that I have, he would receive thumbs down from the jealous ill behaved segment of the board. Many of the higher class of the board don't post, but I have received numberous emails from them praising me and asking questions. I have used this board to collectively answer them.
    When earlier this year, I posted MANY times that the stock was being pumped up, to prepare for the stock offering and said REPEATEDLY, that when it gets "well over $7" don't chase it, if you stand on the platform that that was bad posting, it becomes obvious that you are just jealous , when you cannot give credit when it is due.
    The people emailing were unanimous in thanking me for all those posts.
    Cheers

  • hddriven hddriven Oct 16, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    gc
    the preferred shares are safer than the yield indicates. Neither the A or the B series will be called in or redeemed in the foreseeable future. As Gatr indicated the A series are callable at any time , but the company needs money as time goes on , and so there is no realistic chance that they would consider buying them back. The B series cannot be called in until Nov 2018.
    The company raised $100 Million cash in a recent common stock offering and paid off their credit revolver, so they have plenty of money in the bank. I anticipate that they will be prudent and conservative of the cash in the future as management realizes the environment we are in. The company historically spent plenty of time in the under-capitalized arena and felt the pain of that, so the CEO and CFO don't want that again , especially as it has taken a long time and a lot of hard work to get to the much better capital structure and balance sheet they now have. As such I am quite certain they will err on the side of capital preservation , so the dividends on the preferred will be paid. Both A and B are good, but the B series is a better yield.
    I have owned both , but think that all things considered the B is currently the better choice.

  • hddriven by hddriven Oct 14, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    I understand you are frustrated. sorry that you are getting hurt.
    Yes I bought very heavily the offering. 1/5 was to cover a short position that I entered into when the offering was announced. I began selling the 4/5 in premarket the day after the issue was priced I posted this on this board, & stated in clear language that I was going to be selling to those who wanted to pay above the offering price. I could not have stated it in clearer language, advising people not to pay above the offering price as I expected plenty of chances to buy at that price or below.
    I must admit that I did not get all of the stock sold, I am stuck with a small portion of what I bought. I also admit that I did not think then that things would get as ugly as they have.
    Its all there in my posts.
    that being said, I agree with you that none of us are all powerful or smart enough to avoid being humbled.
    re the part about the supply demand picture for oil, what OPEC is doing, I don't claim to be so smart to have pre-figured that out, But I am smart enough not to deny the truth of it as it has become clear.
    re the concept of GST having to rein in cap ex in 2015 because of the conditions, that is a good thing to do, &guess what , I posted "I have reason to believe they will". Do you understand why I use those words specifically? All of us who have a long interest in the common or the preferred should be glad to know that management will be prudent in this difficult environment. You have chosen to have angst between us, when it would be better to put personalities beyond us, and concentrate on helping each other. Is it possible for you to reconsider these thngs? I have referred to you and others like you as "amateurs" ONLY because when I have tried to give you the benefit of my hard work & tried to help you, you have consistently
    put out your chin against me. Think about it?

  • Reply to

    To clarify

    by hddriven Oct 13, 2014 2:33 PM
    hddriven hddriven Oct 13, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    McGoo,
    your translation is wrong.
    Unlike you, I don't try to manipulate people. It would be just fine with me if people sell their preferred B or A or common stock, OR buy any of the three. I don't care one bit. I don't believe that yokels like you move the stocks.
    I also have to chuckle at your predictions "easy this" or "easy that".
    You have been so wrong, so many times that it truly is hilarious to see you still making predictions and with bravado, no less
    You are a clueless amateur

  • Reply to

    To clarify

    by hddriven Oct 13, 2014 2:33 PM
    hddriven hddriven Oct 13, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    I understand the concept you are addressing.
    However, as I said , there is no reason to believe that either issue is going to be redeemed , as far out as is reasonable to see. I predict that both series will be unredeemed for many years. That is not a bad thing. It just is the reality.
    GST will be forced to rein in capex due to the economics that are now and will likely be solidly in place in the next year at least, so hopefully when the pricing environment improves they will need the money to increase cap ex for E&P, so there is no reason to consider redeeming the preferred's only to then have to raise money again.n
    In case you don't know , there is a significant underwriting discount to offer debt or the preferred series and it would be plain stupid to redeem the shares and then turn around and unredeem them again with the additilonal transaction costs AND potentially higher credit costs that could exist.

  • Reply to

    Share Buy Back to be announced..

    by hytekvideo Oct 13, 2014 4:31 PM
    hddriven hddriven Oct 13, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    they will not be announcing a share buyback.
    They hopefully will reduce capex during such a low return period, but it would be folly for them to do a sharebuyback at this point.
    you have once again posted a fabrication, not surprising since you have done so before.

  • hddriven by hddriven Oct 13, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    I have posted re the reasons GST has had such a precipitous drop and revaluation. Yes, it may be getting to be an overreaction at this point. I am not telling people to sell at these levels.
    One thing that should be clarified:
    the company's balance sheet is in better shape now than it was a few months ago, with the capital raise by the recent secondary offering (proceeds around $100 million ) This makes the preferred shares a screaming buy with this weakness. ( Both series are good, but the B series is clearly better than the A series and by a considerable amount) The A and B series are pari passu (equivalent creditworthiness & claim on assets) but the B series yields considerably more. I expect that neither series will be called in , in the foreseeable future, so the B series will mount up moredividends for the owner over the months and years. The dividends are tax free (and lower the cost basis) in regular accounts and are also suitable for retirement accounts.
    Importantly, I have reason to believe that management will be conservative with their budget, I would anticipate that they will rein in their capital expenditure plans for 2015 to maintain their improved balance sheet, and this will make the preferred's very safe and secure. The decreased cap ex will slow the growth of reserves and limit the chances of a return of the common to the highs , but it is not going there anyway, not in this environment. I am inclined to believe that the common would be "relieved" to learn of a more conservative 2015 cap ex budget and rally some , but clearly the preferred series will welcome such a development with open arms.

  • Reply to

    Re GST

    by hddriven Oct 7, 2014 11:18 AM
    hddriven hddriven Oct 13, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    I am bumping this post because it is one good example of what the amateurs on this board find so hard to accept. In addition to the 11 thumbs down this SUPERIOR post received , there were a number of negative replies to this post, almost ridiculing what is WITHOUT DOUBT what is driving the price action in GST stock. It is NOT only fear trading as one of the foremost poor acumen amateurs stated today in his post.
    With the reality that oil prices are likely to be weak for an extended period of time due to a number of factors such as,
    1. world oversupply
    2. weak macro economic conditions negatively impacting oil demand
    3. the now very clear decision by Saudi Arabia, joined by Iran, Iraq and the list is growing, that they will tolerate lower oil prices for and extended period of time, (yes it will hurt them in the short term), but they know that it will hurt the U.S. shale and the canadian oil sands players more and ultimately these latter high cost players will have to curtail production, thus helping OPEC in the medium term.
    How do we know that they have decided to do this?
    they have actually INCREASED production recently and DISCOUNTED their oil to a large number of customers. Saudi Arabia, started it and now the rest are following the lead. Russia too, they have no choice but to follow.
    There would be no benefit to do it as a fakeout. They will keep it on long enough to get the desired effect.
    A large part of GST's assets are not economical at the lower oil prices, and a decrease in their valuation is totally RATIONAL, not just "fear".
    This is basic ECONOMICS.

  • hddriven by hddriven Oct 10, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    saw your post about the preferred B and your speculation about the cause.
    The two posters who answered you, JFM and McGoo are correct.
    No buyout coming.
    With the common plumbing new lows early today, a holder of the preferred A's got spooked and literally dumped them on the market (note the volume and price range), this spooked a smaller number of share holders of the B series who also sold agressively early in the day.
    So no buyout coming, but with the recent capital raise, the balance sheet looks better and the preferred's are even safer, and with the ten year treasury yield this low it is
    a good buying opportunity for those preferred shares, ( I think the B is a better deal ).

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