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China Housing and Land Development, Inc. Message Board

hdoe1000 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2015 12:36 PM Member since: Jan 2, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Vantage news

    by afcwpg Jul 24, 2015 6:05 PM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jul 27, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    Thanks for digging that out.
    The judge clearly thinks that Su harmed VTG. Su repeatedly mislead VTG's management for his own advantage and breached his fiduciary duties, according to the judges opinion. The company has very good chances to get some shares back. But that isn't the company main concern currently.

    BTW: In the recent PACD presentation, the Zonda's delivery is likely to be postponed until 2017. I guess we will see more delivery shifts from 2016 into 2017.

  • hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jul 9, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    Not likely. PBR's budget has been cut (they change it every year), but includes still more than 100B for exploration and development. The big change is that PBR no longer needs to have a 30+% participation in any Brazilian offshore project. That was slowing exploration and development because of PBR's financial constraints.

  • Reply to

    PACD - Zonda deliviery delayed by one year

    by hdoe1000 Jul 8, 2015 9:46 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jul 9, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    Correction: it was to October 2015. Not really a big delay and not very helpful

  • Reply to

    Zonda delivery delayed one full year

    by hdoe1000 Jul 8, 2015 9:37 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jul 9, 2015 8:46 AM Flag

    Indeed, I now read Oct 2015. That's not really meaningful delay. I was quite sure having initially read Oct 2016.

  • Reply to

    Zonda delivery delayed one full year

    by hdoe1000 Jul 8, 2015 9:37 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jul 9, 2015 8:34 AM Flag

    right!. The message was for the VTG board (-:

  • According to rigzone. The rig was reported ready stacked 3 weeks ago.

  • Zonda delivery delayed from Oct 2015 (just 3 months to go) to Oct 2016. Let's hope that Bragg is negotiating a similar delay for the Cobalt.

  • PACD's Zonda delivery delayed until Oct 2016, according to Offshore Enery - one full year. Le'ts hope that Bragg is negociating a similar delay for the Cobalt.

  • Reply to

    Financial model

    by hdoe1000 Jun 24, 2015 9:41 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 24, 2015 6:23 PM Flag

    From Evercore ISI’s 2015 Mid-Year Global E&P Spending Outlook. - Survey of 300 global E&P companies.
    Oil prices above $70/bbl would prompt more than 70 percent of the survey respondents to revise budgets upward by at least 10 percent, while around 90 percent would raise budgets by at least 10 percent if oil reached $80/bbl levels
    Evercores says, given the significant underinvestment occurring this year and . “Given revised oil demand forecasts, the model oversupply present in the market will likely be erased by year-end, and 2016 could prove to be a very tight global oil market. This tightness, leading to higher oil prices, will in our view drive a substantial recovery for worldwide exploration and production spending.”

  • Reply to

    Financial model

    by hdoe1000 Jun 24, 2015 9:41 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 24, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Well, I did model 2 jackups at $110 and 2 at $0.

    Regarding the Cobalt, the least risky solution would be to walk away from the contract. But there might be penalties. The second best solution would be a substantial delivery delay.

    The key in the next months is the crude price. And that depends on Opec/Saudi behavior. If Opec starts respecting it's self imposed production ceiling, meaning that the Saudis lower production to their habitual volume, the crude price would get a serious lift. A recent survey among oil producers indicate higher investment budgets if crude moves above $70 again. The type of crude (Brent/WTI) wasn't specified.

  • hdoe1000 by hdoe1000 Jun 24, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    I've updated my VTG financial model.

    Assuming that two Jackups remain ready stacked for the rest of the year and the two others get renewals at 110k/d, further assuming no unusual operational hiccups, I am getting cash flow from operations around 220M - assuming cleaned total opex per ship of 220k/d. If the company could bring that number down to the level of ORIG or PACD (200k/d), cash flow would be 20M higher. Cash flow from operations is of course after debt payment.

    In May, ONGC has published a tender to contract 5 floaters for deepwater operations. With Platinum's excellent track record with ONGC, VTG has a good chance to get one of those contracts - although at a reduced day rate - most likely around 400k/d.

    Regarding the Cobalt, the company will not do a deal that isn't at least cash flow neutral in the short term - possibly further delaying delivery.

    Assuming for 2016 average rates of $400k/d for Platinum, Cobalt and Tungsten (after contract expiration), Jackup occupancy of 50%, the 2 others contacted at 110k/d, cash flow from operations would fall to around $100M. Cashflow-wise, 2016 is probably the low of the cycle.

    With the ongoing trend of scrapping/cold stacking of older semisubs, the size of the available floater fleet will probably be at least 10% lower by the end of 2016 (taking into account all projected deliveries) , compared October 2014.

  • Reply to

    Emerald Driller now Ready Stacked

    by dtedward Jun 18, 2015 10:08 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 19, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Which jackups do you mean? in their list, I see two 30+years old available.
    As to Ensco's 8500 semisubs, two are getting cold stacked and one is available.I think that for semisubs, it's even more difficult to get a contract currently than for ships, but there also a few class 6 ships looking for work.

  • hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 19, 2015 6:40 AM Flag

    @kittni
    Thanks for sharing that information.
    I think that the Hero Chapter 11 announcement (not very surprising to the initiated) drove the whole sector down, fueled by professional short sellers.

  • Reply to

    Emerald Driller now Ready Stacked

    by dtedward Jun 18, 2015 10:08 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 19, 2015 6:29 AM Flag

    It was not that bad for Ensco. For the DS6, they negotiated a temporary day rate reduction of 50k/d to July 2016 (from 630k to 580k) , subject to upward adjustments, but also a contract extension for one year after July 2016 at that excellent rate (in the current environment). The contract period for the Class5 DS 1 (360k/d) was reduced. But on balance, the deal added to Ensco's revenue backlog.

  • ORIG's contract status is probably the best in the offshore drilling industry

    E Raude -2015-12
    Olympia - 2016-06
    L. Erikson - 2016-10
    Mylos - 2016-10
    Athena - 2017-03
    Poseidon - 2017-06
    Mykonos - 2018-03
    Apollo - 2018-03
    Corcovado - 2018-06
    Skyros - 2020-Q3

  • Reply to

    Only 5 of 13 rigs contracted past 2016

    by daniel_92648 Jun 11, 2015 8:21 PM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 12, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    to be precise:
    with "past 2018" I will say "into 2018". One contract ends in 2020.

  • Reply to

    Only 5 of 13 rigs contracted past 2016

    by daniel_92648 Jun 11, 2015 8:21 PM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 12, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    "Only 5 of 13 rigs contracted past 2016"
    Not true!
    4 floaters have contracts past 2018 and two into 2017. Orig has one of the best contract coverages in the industry to go through the slump. An the rates are very healthy!
    "Petrobras which has been cancelling contracts" . The two Seadrill orders that Petrobras "cancelled" had not been finally signed. In that sense, there was not contract cancellation. Premature cancellation of firm contracts would lead to huge compensation payments by Petrobras. That's the difference to contracts with Pemex or Aramco.

  • Reply to

    here are the pertinent details

    by divin4tacos Jun 3, 2015 9:44 AM
    hdoe1000 hdoe1000 Jun 3, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    Thanks for the details. It's indeed weird that those details were not included in the official announcements.
    I wonder who is getting those shares.
    Why that 20% dilution at less than 30% of book value, when the debt level is reasonable and the order book is one of the best in the industry?
    It's the dividend. The dividend is essential for the survival of DRYS and George wants to have enough cash for this, even if the Driller's slump extends into 2017.

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