ARs follow the yearly revenue cycle. Highest after Q3 and lowest in Q1. In such a case, even in a static business, you cannot compare Q3 receivables with preceding Q4 or Q1 receivables and draw meaningfull conclusions. Even less so, if sales are doubling Y/Y.
If you suppose 200 days payment terms, than you get more or less the numbers you see.
2012/Q3: Sales 8.9M, AR 15.4M.
2013/Q3: Sales 15.45M, AR 26M.
-- similar ratios.
In Q3, sales efforts were focused on the recertified veterinary medicine production line, by offering generous payment terms, a.o. Right now, the MOA has granted 45% of the submitted medication permits and the facilities are operating near 50% of capacity.
The vaccine line will probably have received all the permits and start running normally by the middle of next year, if guessing conservatively.
A year from now, assuming 80% of submitted medication permit granted, the annual revenue run rate could exceed $80M and, taking into account the vaccine margins, the annual EPS run rate should be nearing $3/share. Quarterly EPS comparisons will continue to show meaningful increases in coming quarters and years.
Brag did not issue 50mm new shares for employees last week. The report to the SEC is a required formality. It gives company members, who have received or are receiving bonus shares, the ability to sell those shares in the open market.
In fact, the current program of share based compensation amounts to about 3mm shares/year or about 1% of share capital/year. Management cannot change that without board and shareholder approval.
All the issued bonus shares are included in the share count
Strange article. Couldn't find it on Rigzone. Rigzone says that the average daily rate for drillships 4000ft+ (not just ultra deepwater ships) is $487k/d. That is the rate for running contracts concluded 1-3 years ago. The article contradicts all recent news. Other drillers I follow, like PACD, ORIG, SDRL, are all trading near their 12 month high - unlikely if the rates of new contracts were collapsing.
That would be the best outcome, but not very realistic. While VTG could win some compensation, most likely much less than claimed, the whole issue will probably take years to sort out. It's not clear what will have happened to SU's shares in the meantime. SU has hughe cash needs and, to the extend that he has control over his shares, could be tempted to sell to strategic investors, once VTG earnings and cahsflows show up, at a share price significantly above the current market price.
Btw, to clear some confusion on this board: According to SEC data, VTG has sued Su in Aug 2012. By the end of July 2013, Su had not filed an answer or a counterclaim. There will be a hearing next month.
Which lawsuit do you mean? VTG against Su? Su has a habit of ignoring lawsuits, but he has paid a price for that.
As to SU's shares: do you know through which vehicle he owns those shares? Whatever the outcome, his parcel will certainly not be dumped in the market, but sold to strategic investors. A year from now, the shares should trade between $2.5 and $3.5/sh.