Thanks, Happy. Guess I'll sit tight for a month or so to see if there's news, or any other developments.
If I'm understanding you from this and other posts correctly, HappyHorn, this would mean that every 10,000 shares of VTGDF (the old VTG) would be worth around 21 shares in the new company VDI. (311,020,000 / 655,095 = 474.77 old shares per new share). If the new company is valued at $95 per share, then those 21 shares would be worth $1,995. That would seem to make an old VTG share worth 19.95 cents. Is there enough uncertainty in the situation for VTGDF to trade at 1/12 of this price, or could the calculations be off somehow?
(I was trading in and out of VTG, and got caught long with 40,000 shares in the 24 cent range when things tanked in December. Been thinking to clear them out of the portfolio, but with this information may hang on and try to get at least 70-80% back out of it.)
A few positive points:
Cash at $135.5 million. That's about 25% more than the market cap.
Backlog of $258 million.
Shipyard work not yet done on the SPS, but expected to come in at under the budgeted $42.5 million.
A cut of 50%, but at today's closing of $3.546, an annualized yield of 28.2%.
Not sure if Mr. Market had already priced this in, or if we're in for another dip in the roller coaster ride.
Dropped under $5 PPS, might have triggered some fund selling. Year end window-dressing also may be at play. I picked up another 600, may pick up some more before year end as trading shares.
ONGC swamped with offers for hiring deep sea rigs, expects charter rates to come down
Article from Economic Times ET Energyworld online news.
Some good info, nothing that new, from an Indian perspective. Tough competition for VTG there.
Which is when the dust usually settles. Probably not a lot of margin calls, but probably some shorts trying to keep this down, and cover. At least those that aren't reading total bankruptcy for VTG. I'm thinking this will pull back out, so I'll be looking to average down a bit more, and be patient for the ride back up, though probably not as high as originally expected. Still, it could easily be a 10-bagger from a nickel just on the other 39% of the backlog.
I think there's a daily limit on the buyback program, 25% of avg. volume for 4 weeks. So, they definitely could do 200k units, but doubtful on 500k units.
I bought a few at 7.68 on the way down, and again at 7.38, doubling down my stake. Hope the cost-averaging works. For me, definitely a mid- to long-term hold.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So, we could see approx. 1.3 million shares a day being converted from debt, about 17% of avg. daily volume. All in all, as noted, less than 3% of market cap, so not a big dilution.
No doubt, they'd like to get those shares as cheap as possible, so looking for some more bear raids, and a general downward trend over the next 10 days, as the shorts scream "dilution" and "death spirals". I'm freeing up dry powder from today to begin buying in about a week.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Any EVEP old timers have thoughts on whether they might issue a special? I'm thinking with the huge (100%) profit on the UEO sale, wouldn't they like to share some with the unit holders? :-P
Had a lowball order in a couple days ago, missed it, and may have to chase this on Monday.
Had an old GTC order from back in April's runup for half of my position fill on me a couple days ago. Didn't expect the sharp move up, and wasn't able to get online to cancel it. :-( A relatively small profit on that portion considering where it looks like it wants to head. Holding onto the other half for a while here. ;-)
Trade was cancelled. Bet that somebody fat-fingered and missed the first digit, and got their broker to cancel it. Seems like it scared a long or two, and some shares dumped in the low 17's. Never a dull moment with SUPN. :-P
Picked up some more at .21, but didn't expect the drop to the teens, or I'd have put in another order. A little movement back up in AH, but little volume. Next few days will be interesting.
VTG has also paid down over $300 million in debt in the last 18 months, much of it early, and continued to do so this quarter. Makes me think they're in a stronger position than HERO, who has proposed a rather nasty restructuring, at least for stockholders.