AFSI released their 8K relating to the restructured deal with TWGP. If it was material for them and they had to release an 8K, would not it be material also for TWGP. So where is there 8K? Perhaps they cannot get any 10K or 8K out because they have no employees left who are willing to sign their name to any external document? Just a question, not a statement with any inside knowledge.
Let me clarify. Apparently from my reading of AFSI's release, the delay has nothing to do with adjusting the Tower reserves for the 10K, but the regulator apparently did not like something on how it was structured and wanted to protect the insureds better. That would be mostly because of an uncertainty of the reserves and they would not want ACP to or AFSI to find a loophole. I still believe the $3 price is the best anyone will get and if the deal does not go through, the DOI will take over. This is still a complicated deal with the dealer being someone who apparently is good at sleight of hand card playing. The faster this deal is done the better for TWGP shareholders.
It seems that AFSI and ACP Re restructured their deal to make it better for them, and the regulators, so that was the delay. I cannot see where it hurts Tower stockholders, so this should make things move faster. I notice that AFSI was able to get a 10K out quicker than TWGP. Perhaps in the next week or so they will publish annual results and a 10K. And also the statutory results. Apparently it had nothing to do with reserves.
I am trying to read between the lines to understand the deal and it looks like the delay was because AFSI and ACP worked together to make the deal better for them. But it should also not hurt Tower stockholders and the 3.00 price there is still good. Any better understanding? So, the long and the short of it is they should be able to move forward more quickly now and get it completed.
The independent auditor has an obligation to opine on the accuracy of the financials, including the reserves. While they have broader issues, they will not sign off without their own independent look. Here is what is typical for a publicly traded insurance company: Their internal actuaries, along with management come up with what they think is right. They then may hire an outside actuarial firm to give their own independent look. There may be disagreements there, but those tend to be minor. Then the accounting firm that signs off on the 10K and annual financials will send in their own actuaries to take another independent look at it. This is where there can be disagreement. This company will not sign off on financials until they are comfortable with the reserves, though there will tend to be back and forth to come to agreement. The audit company will not simply take the company's word for it. They usually will not look at it, however except on an annual basis.
This could easily be a brush off move to "blame the auditors" for the delay. I think the answer was broad enough to be pretty meaningless. (positive or negative)
I think they will post another unbelievable quarter. I think they will also have to comment on Tower. I wonder whatever happened with Meadowbrook? Maybe the Tower thing was to complicated and they had to either delay or drop out on MIG.
So, I am thinking that TWGP is going to release their 10K prior to the Amtrust earnings release. You would think that there might be something they would be required to disclose at earnings time that relates to Tower. I think Tower knows their earnings (roughly) and is waiting until the right time to release. I am wondering if there was pressure to get a slightly higher price and instead of increasing for the stockholders, they paid a bit more to the management. Or maybe (perhaps more likely) everything is in such a disarray that they needed to bribe them to stay longer so they could fix the mess. Just speculation. I still think in the end it will go through as planned. If it doesn't, it is curtains for Tower.
This is confusing to me. They have had all that high powered outside people perusing the books, reserves and accounting since they discovered their major oops (technical term) in August. They finally got it together for the 2nd and 3rd quarters, albeit quite late, and they now have other entities perusing the books and reserves, so they should have been able to report year end on time. They should have reported the GAAP and 10K for stockholders and now are late with statutory financials--at least I assume they have not reported those to the NAIC as required by 4-1. The statutory financials are done by individual insurance company, by state and by line, so there is more granular information in those. So why? Do they have to do it all over again? If so then there may (or may not) be funny business going on. Otherwise, lets get on with the show.
A list of the largest prop casualty carriers' p/e's that have similar types of business (mostly retail comml biz), Travelers = 9.8; Hartford = 9.1; AIG = 10.1; Chubb = 11.3; CNA = 11.0; WR Berkely = 11.7. I guess smaller stocks that are considered growth stocks would have a higher p/e. I got those today from Yahoo. Easy to look up. These are forward-looking.
They are working on the ultra marathon so they have bypassed the 10K? Don't expect 2013 earnings before they absolutely have to, which may be never. I just wonder what is holding up their buyer. There should be something by now.
Funny guy. I think when I consistently say I do not understand the accounting, so cannot opine on the offshore transactions, it would be obvious, but I will answer that when you truthfully answer the question we are all asking that you have avoided. Have you quit beating your wife?
The shorts sellers (Jockey, Fruit of the Loom, etc) probably had nothing to do with AmTrust. Not even briefly. As far as GEO goes, I think that was a failed car from the company bailed out by the government. Do these guys have friends in high places? If so, then there is nothing to worry about. Bailout coming.
I have a question. Isn't it taking a long time to get to the next step on the sale? Don't the shareholders have to agree prior to the regulatory acceptance of the deal (which is usually what takes time, but usually no more than 3-4 months), or is the regulator approval who must approve first and then they put it up to a vote? I am starting to get a little concerned, but maybe they all take more time than this. I think I recall with SeaBright in Aug 2012 or so they made the announcement and had a vote in about October and regulator approval in January? So they should be announcing a vote soon? Or did I miss that?
I think they have to publish their statutory financials to the regulators on April 1. Each insurance company has their own statutory financials which is broken down by calendar year loss , expense and combined ratios by insurance line. That would give us some clarity. A year ago, I think they wrote about 35% of their business in warranty. I think they have been growing in comml lines, especially comp, so that percentage would be lower. The warranty should provide some stability but as it gets smaller, there is less stability.
Quite a bit of Majestic's book was USL&H which AmTrust did not want, so that went away. However they wrote much of the contracting book. I know nothing about Cardinal. I heard last week from two different agents that they are having their fastest growth since the late 90's and they are going to ride Amtrust until they have to find another market. They will write just about anything state act whether it be restaurants or contractors (and even a small roofer the other day :)) and they are the cheapest on the streets except sometimes the State Fund is cheaper or a PEO that acts like an insurance company but does not have to have capital.
AmTrust continues to be one of the fastest growing company in workers compensation, nationally. I don't know for sure, but I suspect their biggest growth area is California. They are now the 8th largest workers compensation company in the US with WC premiums of 1.66 billion. They way they are going in California, expect that to increase rapidly this year. Reminds me of the days in the late 90's and early 2000's when the fast growing comp companies were Cal Comp, Fremont, Legion, Paula, Western Growers, Superior National. Hmm. AmTrust is the favored company due to extreme low price for any kind of WC in CA. Ask any AmTrust agent. Many are starting to look for the next horse to ride.