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Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. Message Board

hebonix04 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 16, 2014 12:39 PM Member since: Feb 20, 2004
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  • hebonix04 by hebonix04 Dec 12, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    Keep a clear head when reading these boards. There are a lot of people here that just stuff to aid their own agendas without actually discussing SSH as a company or the merits of C-Pulse as a therapy. Remember why you Invested in the company to begin with. To my knowledge, nothing has fundamentally changed in the past few weeks to get stock down so much, but again, remember that this is a company without meaningful revenues and no profits, and not commercial products. This stock will be moved easily by folks that trading it. As an Investor, I try to ignore the short term price gyrations(although it is really tough sometimes) and keep focused on the real goals.

    Big catalysts coming up:

    FDA Interim analysis - If this is granted, SSH will NOT need any additional capital to finish enrollments for the C-Pulse trial. I would elaborate more on the data points used in my model, but it would take a while and not suitable for a BB discussion. If it is not granted, worst case scenario, the company goes to market for $20mm, assuming a $4 stock price, that is 5 million additional shares issued. Is that significant dilution? Yes, it is, but not really....The company only has 20million outstanding shares on a fully diluted basis.

    Q4 Enrollments - Rosa really put a damper on things during the call by saying that that we should not expect great enrollment figures for Q4. If SSH can manage double digit enrollments, it will be a huge positive and sets them up for Q1 2015 - The year when enrollments do kick into high gear.

    Remember...This is a HIGHLY Speculative play, but it could pay off handsomely. In all the Research that I have done, I have not found any competing medical device that at least to this point in the data that we have has worked as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CHK is going to receive 5.4B in December from the SWN transaction. Given that their Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WAC) is less than 6%, I don't think it makes much sense to use the proceeds to retire debt necessarily. I think that they should use 2.5B for debt reduction in order to bring their credit rating to Investment grade and use 2.5B for share buy backs. CHK is extremely undervalued at these levels and as management continues to do a great job of cutting costs and managing the firm in a cash flow neutral manner, this in my opinion is the best course of action. The buyback could reduce the outstanding shares by 10%-15%. This would enhance earnings going forward and make the company even more attractive.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hebonix04 by hebonix04 Nov 13, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    CHK looks very attractive after the deal with SWN closes in December. I think that CVX, Aubrey, current management or Private Equity firms (General Atlantic Partners) could make a play for it. The question is at what price. Anything less than $40 a share would be a disappointment given the great future I think this company has. Does anyone know what CHK did with their stake in FTS International or Frac Tech?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hebonix04 hebonix04 Nov 20, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Price drops on low volume are certainly hard to digest, but just keep in mind that NOTHING has changed, at least public knowledge over the past week, so if you liked it before, there is no reason not to like it now. This company is a HIGHLY speculative play, which I firmly believe will pay off handsomely, but there are going to be difficult downturns along the way. I own over 20k shares and it is difficult to see the price drop, but then again, until there is a fundamental change in how I view the company, the shares remain in my account.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rosa SOLD 7700 Shares At $5.53 & $5.55.

    by bigsmartsta Oct 2, 2014 8:12 AM
    hebonix04 hebonix04 Oct 2, 2014 8:58 AM Flag

    OMG OMG

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hebonix04 hebonix04 Oct 14, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Dude seriously....you are the worst poster on this board. You definitely have an agenda...you pump when you are long and bash, bash when you're short, which does have an impact on a company this volume of trading. If anyone reports you to the SEC...I could see their point.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SSH - CC- Market clearly not impressed

    by ssh_holder Oct 30, 2014 3:02 PM
    hebonix04 hebonix04 Oct 30, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    Agree. I really think that these guys, DRosa could really benefit from having a professional Investor Relations individual on the team. This call was just not up to snuff...they took what in my view was a very successful quarter with respect to enrollments and botched it. DRosa sets the tone for these calls and today, he was not up to par. So glad that Olsen is on the team now, she seems to have a good handle on all the issues.

    It is a long term play. The market will move up and down, traders will trade this stock because it can be easily pushed up or down, but as an Investor, you need to remind yourself why it is that you bought the stock in the first place, and if the fundamentals have not materially changed, then perhaps it's an opportunity to buy a few more shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $20

    by natty_0ner Oct 10, 2014 9:02 AM
    hebonix04 hebonix04 Oct 10, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    Now you are getting greedy....great call on CHK, I lost a ton of money on this POS. But I still like their business long term.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SSH Just Stated Enrollments Will Fall In Q4

    by bigsmartsta Oct 30, 2014 9:14 AM
    hebonix04 hebonix04 Oct 30, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    seasonal reasons......pay attention.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hebonix04 by hebonix04 Oct 30, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Disappointed in Derosa's delivery. He mumbled and left information out that he had to interject later on. Was not his best. Very excited about the enrollment figures however:
    2013 - 3
    2014
    Q1 - 3
    Q2 - 7
    Q3 - 14
    Sequential enrollment growth of 200% is fantastic.
    Issues raised that Management did a poor job of explaining:

    1 - Private Insurance will not cover cost of treatment for C-Pulse and some hospitals have asked SSH to cover the cost. This is only during the trial phase, and Medicare does cover it. It is all in how the info is presented. SSH made investors very nervous with their clumsy delivery. Very glad that Mrs. Olsen in now part of the team as she was the one who jumped in to clarify issues that Derosa brought up.

    2 - Enrollments will drop in Q4. Also a legitimate concern. However, this is understandable given all the holidays and the fact that it is an elective procedure. Management failed to be more encouraging by not providing any comfort by giving out more granular details on current patient/doctor visits, etc. This would have strengthen their argument that they expect enrollments to rebound in Q1 2015.

    The biggest thing to look forward to in Q4 will be the FDA's decision as to whether they will grant an interim analysis. This will have a powerful effect on the trial and the stock price for that matter. In my model, SSH will not have an issue with Cash burn until early Q4 2015, assuming that they DO NOT raise additional capital prior to that. On a fully diluted basis the company has approximately 20mm shares outstanding. With a potential for another chuck being issued if they raise capital. This again is a non issue to current investors. The dilution would be a good trade off for the additional capital to bring the trial to a successful end.

    As always do your own research and if you have any questions or comments, I will gladly engage you in a discussion of the facts. I own 20k shares, so my skin is in the game. Full disc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hebonix04 by hebonix04 Nov 18, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    CHK is looking great for an acquisition target after the SWN transaction closes....Any potential buyers?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SSH Holders

    by hebonix04 Dec 12, 2014 2:45 PM
    hebonix04 hebonix04 Dec 12, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    I don't believe that I am having a "problem". Sure, there is going to be competition down the line from Drugs, but the market for the different classes of HF is enormous. There will not be just one treatment, all we can ask for is that SSH gets a place in Physicians repertoire of available treatments.

    As you purport to be well informed on these drugs, you should also know that the success rate of these drugs is not guaranteed, even for something like LCZ696 - which I happen to think will be a good drug for this terrible disease.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hebonix04 hebonix04 Dec 11, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Have you read your posts aloud??

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hebonix04 hebonix04 Dec 16, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    I am also adding at these levels. Have not been filled on anything yet however.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

POT
35.65-0.05(-0.14%)Dec 26 4:04 PMEST

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