% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

hedgehog25 223 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Aug 1, 2007
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Yahoo wants to arm the censor

    by censorbone 16 hours ago
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 16 hours ago Flag

    What censor? You mean mav's imaginary friend?

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 22 hours ago Flag

    Why? Because you have a long position and you want it to happen really, really badly, or is there a more specific reason?

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Oct 5, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    Well, maybe anticipation of that news is why EYES has been in a freefall. But I wouldn't underestimate the potential of this company's groundbreaking technology. The ability to splice an electronic device into nerves and soon directly into the brain to create sensory perception goes far beyond retinitis pigmentosa.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Oct 5, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    LOL, that's the price I bailed out at. I was averaged at ~13.5.

    I have just one thing to say: This price is a joke. I'm back in.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Oct 5, 2015 4:04 AM Flag

    They've been threatening to raise rates for a well over a year now. They just keep moving the goal posts further and further back. It's starting to look like Khadafy's Line of Death.

    They talk about jobs and inflation as the excuse, but the real reason they can't raise rates is that it would bankrupt the US government. You can't carry 18 trillion dollars of debt if you have to pay any interest to speak of on itl

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Oct 5, 2015 3:56 AM Flag

    To pump up the stock market. What else does he EVER do?

  • Reply to

    I'm calling PETA.

    by ignatiusreilly35 Sep 25, 2015 10:02 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 25, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    Maybe you can't believe it, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Yes, they *can* have this much power. I've seen this game played over and over and over with stocks similar to this: small or mid cap with low volumes and a small float, and a company with a good story to lure in buyers (either because it just sounds good, or actually is good - doesn't matter). When you see a stock like that with a very high short interest, that's a red flag that it's a highly manipulated stock under attack.

    The high short interest gives shareholders dreams of a short squeeze on the next exciting PR, but what usually ends up happening is that rallies get quickly snuffed out, because the shorts are hedge funds that are firmly in control of the share price. If you look closely at the trading activity, you can see the same games being played, on very different stocks with those common characteristics.

    As for your confidence that the SEC pays attention to these games that happen on a daily basis and intervenes to protect the little guy from getting suckered and fleeced, that's cute. They get involved in major scams where powerful people with political pull get burned, not in day-to-day price manipulation shenanigans. Look up the term "iron triangle".

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 25, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Well, that didn't last long. I got stopped out this morning at 14.80. This looked too much like catching a falling knife to hold it without a safety net. I figured that if it couldn't hold its gains since yesterday, it was probably heading lower. I might try again if it goes down a few more points and I see signs that the slide is coming to an end.

    Since my previous post seems to have been popular, I'm guessing this one won't be. ;)

  • Reply to

    What's propping up this POS?

    by hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 10:57 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    Well, what I said below, that's where it ended up. Above the 20 day SMA and above the downtrend line. Plus, it outperformed the S&P in a big way almost all day long.

    I can only shake my head in disbelief, but this demonstrates the adage, "trade what you see, not what you think."

    I *think* that NFLX is ridiculously overvalued and the stock really isn't worth 50 bucks. But I could *see* that it wasn't going to collapse in the near future.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    Looks like my interpretation is prevailing in the futures market. Futures whipsawed up and down for a while, but now they're starting a steady climb.

    The speech was rife with weasel words and hedging, but the bottom line is that she said the majority of the committee does NOT think that rates should be hiked under current conditions, and will only be hiked if conditions change in accordance with predictions they're making that they've been making for a long time, i.e. "We think that it's likely that we'll raise rates because we predict the same things for the future that we've predicted before but haven't happened. But if the economy 'surprises' us (as it usually has in the past), we'll change our tune because the conditions that make a rate hike appropriate still have to develop, they're not here yet."

    Show of hands, how many people here think that if the Fed predicts something for the economy, that means it's even *slightly* more likely to happen than not? To me "we'll only hike this year if things change as we predict" means they're very unlikely to do it.

  • Reply to


    by ck4dui Sep 24, 2015 5:42 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    No, she hasn't really said much of anything yet. Just a bunch of weasel words, hedging, and doublespeak. Futures are dropping, but what I'm hearing is that she's lining up excuses to not raise rates this year.

    She said "it will likely be appropriate" to raise rates later this year", *because* they predict that certain things will happen later this year, as they've been predicting would soon happen for more than a year and kept coming back and saying "hmmm, that hasn't happened yet, so we'll wait and see..."

  • Everything so far has been about the importance of driving core inflation back to 2%, and how inflation has kept running below targets. Inflation this, inflation that. And she also mentioned that the UE rate is still above the median of what the FOMC considers its target, and that it "may" (lol) understate the actual slack in the labor market, and that they're looking for further improvement.

    So she's basically saying "yeah, we'll pay lip service to a 'likely' rate hike 'later' this year, if 'appropriate', because it would look bad if we didn't, but we're still waiting to see what happens, because conditions aren't ripe for a rate hike." In other words, "we're going to wait for a set of conditions that we've been predicting for a long time that haven't materialized suddenly materialize in the the next month or two, and oh yeah, we continue to predict that those conditions are just around the corner, as we always have before. But until we actually see them, no rate hike."

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Plus it re-tested the lows of last week's flash crash and turned back up.

    I dipped my toes in at 14.38. Now would be a great time for a big announcement to drive it back into the 20s. :)

  • So, as mentioned before, I had NFLX puts that I sold earlier today. Those were October and November monthly 95 puts that I bought on Friday when NFLX was at ~102.5. However, here's something noteworthy:

    First, that the puts were still up from yesterday even when NFLX was up by 1%.

    Second, even though those puts are now trading for less than when I sold them, they're still significantly higher than when I bought them, when NFLX was at the same price as now, despite almost a week's worth of time decay. This doesn't appear to be a market-wide phenomenon, because VXX is at about the same price as it was at that time. But NFLX puts have gotten more expensive at the same price despite time having elapsed.

    If you're long, you may want to take that as a red flag. Or you may want to be all googly-eyed on your overvalued stock and ignore it because it's a company you think is cool. I'm just passing along my observations. I currently have no position on this stock.

  • Reply to

    What's propping up this POS?

    by hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 10:57 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    Well, I'm not exactly regretting my decisions so far.

    I also bought FB calls just after posting that, and ADXS a little earlier, and I'm not regretting those either. Though I'm a little uneasy about holding the FB calls overnight because it's now well above max pain for tomorrow (92.5). Maybe I'll hold for the likely gap up, then dump at the opening bell.

  • Reply to

    What's propping up this POS?

    by hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 10:57 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Yeah, but....what if it gets driven to close *above* the 20 SMA? That would also be above the 6 week downtrend line (since the beginning of the correction), which it's just about rubbing up against right now. If that happens, there could easily be another hype-based runup to crash into the upper Bollinger band on the day chart at around 110. Too risky to stay short on this overinflated momo stock right now, especially with puts.

    If I miss out, I miss out. I'll wait to see if it gets pumped up again, then reload. Or maybe I'll just sell short outright so I don't have to worry about whether the crash comes before my options expire. Because I know it *will* crash eventually, and has very little upside left, if any at all, but who knows, maybe it won't come down to Earth until next year.

  • Reply to

    What's propping up this POS?

    by hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 10:57 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    Well...regardless of why, I ended up closing out my puts on the pullback at about noon because I figured it wasn't going to stop.

    Activity all around today has convinced me that the whole market is going to be driven back up in the near term, so I took short positions on the VIX.

    I still think NFLX is the most overvalued large cap in the entire market and long term there really is no legitimate bull case for it, but it's been driven up for no good reason all year long, and it could happen again. The tepid selloff of the last few days followed by this morning's runup on a big down day for the S&P convinced me that the big crash isn't likely to be happening now.

    I have a sinking feeling that I may end up regretting letting myself be shaken out, but it's too risky, better to take my profits while I still had them.

  • Reply to

    What's propping up this POS?

    by hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 10:57 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 24, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    In other words, you don't have a legitimate answer. Just pomp and posturing.

  • I don't see any positive news, not even hype news. And don't anyone even try to tell me that this stock isn't grossly overvalued. The only article I see that even sounds positive is "Netflix’s Grand Ambition: Become Bigger Than Disney". What, all they have to do is *say* they want to become bigger than Disney, and the stock trades as if that's going to happen when there's no reason to believe that's likely?

    Oddly enough, September and October puts are up even while the stock price is up. Is this a fake pump to lure in bagholders before the big dump?

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Sep 22, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    Don't try to change the subject, bobloses_o_phile. That's the lamest attempt to weasel out of a bet I've ever seen in my life.

    Completely non-responsive, trying to play the tired old message board game of pretending to know that someone is the same person as some other nick that's completely different and unrelated in any way, instead of facing up to the fact that you lost our bet and it's time to follow through on what you agreed to.

    You can call me hyenas, you can call me veggie, or you can call me the ghost of Czar Nicholas the Second, but you can't run away from the fact that we made a bet on March 26 that if VXX returns to 30 within six months, you have to abandon this nick and start posting on Yahoo Finance exclusively as bobloses_o_phile.

    Well, VXX went above 30 twice. First in the premarket on 8/25, then during the regular session on 9/1. What are you waiting for?

22.40-0.50(-2.18%)3:51 PMEDT