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Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X ETF Message Board

hedgehog25 564 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2015 6:23 PM Member since: Aug 1, 2007
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  • Reply to

    API 10million drawdown

    by jdoobah May 19, 2015 4:33 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 19, 2015 6:23 PM Flag

    Maybe he has Asperger's syndrome and thinks that saying something contrary to fact is automatically funny, because he doesn't grasp the concept of humor so he tries to follow simple formulas and keeps missing the mark?

    In any case, regardless of what's wrong with him psychologically, since this is not the first time he's done this, I'm flagging his post as abuse.

  • Reply to

    API 10million drawdown

    by jdoobah May 19, 2015 4:33 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 19, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    I really don't understand why he keeps lying about this. I know he's long USO, but is he really delusional enough to think that posting a lie this message board has the ability to alter the price of oil futures by even a tenth of a percent? Or is he just mentally unbalanced?

  • Reply to

    Let me tell you something....why fb got dumped

    by tinto9872 May 15, 2015 1:31 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 18, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    You're changing the subject, but you don't seem to understand that you are. You're stating the obvious, that selling by shareholders drives the price down, but we were talking about *short sellers* taking profits, not shareholders.

    When short-sellers take profits, they don't SELL shares. They BUY shares, to cover their short position. Do you not understand the bare basics of how short selling works?

  • Reply to

    Pump and Dump! who agree?

    by th_ton May 15, 2015 12:57 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 15, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    Not me. It was predictably taken down for opex. Combine that with short-term profit-taking by swing traders (such as myself, but I already mostly did that yesterday, contributing to the pullback at the very end).

    But I'm quite sure there will be follow-through to yesterday's rally, it wasn't a one-day move that will completely reverse.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 15, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    It was option writers not wanting to pay out too much in calls that were way in the money after yesterday's surge. That's it. I expect follow-through on the rally next week.

  • Reply to

    Let me tell you something....why fb got dumped

    by tinto9872 May 15, 2015 1:31 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 15, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    Um...nope. Think about it...profit-taking by short sellers drives the price *up*, not down.

  • Reply to

    Let me tell you something....why fb got dumped

    by tinto9872 May 15, 2015 1:31 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 15, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    Yep. It was quite predictable...which is why I and a few others predicted it yesterday. :)

    Looks like there was a tug-of-war at the end between option writers who wanted to pin it at 80.50 and ones who wanted to pin it at 80.00, which is why it wasn't pinned exactly at a strike prices the way it was the previous two weeks.

  • Reply to

    Head and shoulder pattern! Watch out!!

    by txspicewood May 14, 2015 12:12 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 15, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    My point is that until the pattern has formed, it isn't even *slightly* more likely to happen than to not happen.There's absolutely no sound reason to trade based on technical patters that you think are in the midst of being formed. Partially formed technical patterns don't have any particular tendency to fully form. Until the pattern is complete, it's simply not there, and has no predictive value whatsoever.

    In fact - and this should be obvious from my explanation above - partially formed double tops/bottoms and H&S end up forming completely far *less* often than not. That's a big part of the reason *why* they're significant.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 15, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    Um...no. To roll over options means to exchange them for contracts that expire later. I really hope you're not actually trading options.

  • Reply to

    Should pin at 80 but...

    by awana_moorehead May 15, 2015 11:30 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 15, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    Yeah, but, that's what everyone expects. So maybe 80.50 instead?

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    Yes. :)

    But I'm sure you'll see at least another $3 gain next week. So if you have shares, just be patient. If you have options expiring tomorrow, roll them over first thing in the morning.

  • Reply to

    2 out of three indicators say Buy FB today

    by artbyxxx May 14, 2015 8:36 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    80 is max pain, but it's too far down. It takes a lot of money to move a stock with a market cap well over $200 billion. I say they'll try to pin it at 81 or 80.5. Taking it down a full 1.7% against strength would probably be more expensive than the equity in options between those prices and 80. Heck, I could even see 81.5, if it's above 82 in the morning.

  • Reply to

    POINT OF INFORMATION: max pain 80...

    by mr_in_out May 14, 2015 2:36 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Well, to be fair, the stock price wasn't exactly "down". Even at 77, it was trading with a TTM P/E of 75 and a forward P/E of ~35. So the question was whether there was anything to justify keeping the price *up* so high.

    An earnings report with a 5% beat on EPS and a top line miss certainly didn't justify the high valuation. Yesterday's launch did. Beyond the revenues it will generate in and of itself, it showed that the company has gotten a clue about how to leverage their gargantuan user base into profits when those users aren't willing to pay for the services. That has been the key question, the key point FB has needs to prove, since day one.

  • Reply to

    POINT OF INFORMATION: max pain 80...

    by mr_in_out May 14, 2015 2:36 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    I think it regained the momo. Yesterday's news isn't just a sentiment-booster, it really is a game-changer. It was exactly the kind of catalyst FB needed to light the fuse again. If the indices were trending down, it might have been seen as an opportunity to dump into strength, but given the recent job numbers and the S&P breaking out to new highs, this is an environment for a momo stock to regain its momo.

    But, as you know...you ignore max pain at your own peril. There's no way the fat cats are going to be willing to pay out all those calls.

  • Reply to

    POINT OF INFORMATION: max pain 80...

    by mr_in_out May 14, 2015 2:36 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    Yeah, I was figuring it'll probably open higher, then trade down toward max pain...though probably not all the way down to 80. They'll probably pin it at 81, or 80.5.

  • Reply to

    Head and shoulder pattern! Watch out!!

    by txspicewood May 14, 2015 12:12 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    No it doesn't. Calling technical patterns before they're formed is a rookie mistake. There's no second shoulder unless it starts trending down from today's close (An intra-day decline, or a partial retracement tomorrow, would be irrelevant. It has to actually reverse the short-term trend.) In fact, it's not even confirmed unless it breaks below the neckline in the low 77s.

    What you're doing is very similar to the people who start crowing "double top!" or "double bottom!" when the price returns to the previous high or low, apparently unaware that by that reasoning every price channel has multiple double tops on the way up, or multiple double bottoms on the way down. If you define double top/bottom in terms of when something just returns to the previous high/low, then it has absolutely now predictive value; the whole point is that an attempt to break through the previous high/low failed, showing that the up/down trend has run out of steam.

    It's exactly the same story with H&S if you think the right shoulder has been formed just because the price has returned to the lever of the second to last peak. Defined that way, H&S has ZERO predictive value, because it's something you see VERY often during uptrends.

    And BTW, unless there's a massive EOD reversal to close below the 20 SMA (80.1), you're out of your mind if you think it's not going further up. Especially with the indices breaking out to new all-time highs.

  • Reply to

    3 out of 3 indicators say sell Fb today

    by artbyxxx May 12, 2015 11:47 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    See? I told you that you screwed yourself by publicly admitting that you bought puts. If you hadn't said anything, it would have kept sliding, but now that they knew your position, they drove it up just to stick it to you and make your puts expire worthless.

    Don't believe me that that's how it works? I have proof! I posted earlier on Tuesday that I was shorting FB, so yesterday I got my #$%$ kicked on that trade. I kept it a secret that I covered and bought weekly 79 calls yesterday afternoon after reading about the news app, so that trade worked out great.

    (Attention Wall Street: FYI, I just sold 70% of my calls, so you don't need to drive back down to spite me. It's okay to let it keep going up.)

  • Reply to

    Publishers will be begging FB to carry their feed

    by jo316769 May 13, 2015 5:35 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 14, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    There's your 3%, happy now? ;)

    So, what, is today garbage day in Menlo Park?

  • Reply to

    3 out of 3 indicators say sell Fb today

    by artbyxxx May 12, 2015 11:47 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 12, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    You shouldn't have posted that. Now "they" will read your post and drive it up just to spite you. I'm keeping my position a secret. ;)

  • Reply to

    Why does FB trade sideways after good earnings?

    by gerrys_h May 11, 2015 11:52 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 May 11, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    FB's valuation prices in numbers that dazzle. Analyst estimates are deliberately lowballed, and the price is based on expectations that those estimates will be blown away; it has several years of "better than expected" growth already priced in.

    Furthermore, it *didn't* report good earnings. It reported a narrow beat on EPS, but a top line miss. For a growth/momo stock with years of phenomenal future growth priced in, a miss on revenues is a red flag and kills the momentum that's driving it up.

    It really looks like a broken stock to me. I don't see any catalyst to reverse the downtrend until the next earnings, and I'd be surprised of we don't see 60 by then.

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