You can't be serious. I used to get offers for credit cards with a 0% or .99% interest rate for the first six months and a single digit rate after that at least twice a month. I haven't seen a single one of those since the financial crisis.
Yeah, but when the first shots of the invasion were fired last week and the market plummeted fast, it recovered in a matter of hours and kept rallying, so now nobody believes that any invasion-induced dip would last.
It's the same play as it has been for years: Just buythedip and go to sleep. :|
Oh, but it's even worse: The winners they're picking are the ones who acted irresponsibly, in ways that hurt both their personal finances and the broad economy. The losers are the ones who acted responsibly and in ways that benefit the economy. But that's democracy: If a lot more people behave irresponsibly than responsibly, government policies will favor the ones who behave irresponsibly.
Especially if the government itself has been irresponsible in exactly the same way, LOL.
And don't forget the elephant in the room: That the U.S. government is so deeply in debt that there's no way it can ever hope to shoulder the burden let alone pay it off unless interest rates stay low and inflation rises.
Frankly, I don't think they're relieved, as they claim, that their policy is "working" because inflation hasn't started spiraling out of control. I think they *want* to drive inflation up and are frustrated that it's taking so long, because there's no other way to handle the massive tab they've run up. People who "did the right thing" when economists and investment advisers told them it's a good thing to save get the honor of being the ones selected to do more than their share to help get out of this mess by having their wealth destroyed.
Bottom line, you're right: They can't raise rates. All of the government's incentives point to keeping them as low as possible for as long as possible.
Everyone now knows that to make money trading, you just buy every dip robotically, and that's the *only* play there is, because every down move will always recover quickly. Always. To eternity.
Uh-huh. Consensus estimate, $27.01 billion, actual revenue, $27.6. Well, I suppose if you apply AAPL standards from 6-7 years ago, 2% higher than the average estimate would be considered a huge miss. :|
Why even bother? Do you really think anyone out there trades based on nonsense posted on a message board, when anyone who has the web access to see the message board can easily look up the numbers in a fraction of a minute?
The flaw in your argument: Capitalism is *not* based on profits for the few.
Capitalism is based on the principle that independent economic actors freely making economic decisions that they believe are in their personal best interest have the aggregate effect of promoting the general economic well-being more effectively than a central planning body or even individuals trying to "do the right thing" for society.
It tends to result in wide disparities in wealth among individuals, but much greater overall wealth for most people. Winston Churchill said it best: "Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty."
A common mistake -- made by many people on *both* ends of the current political spectrum -- is to confuse between plutocracy and capitalism. They're not the same thing. In fact, they're very much at odds with each other.
I think you should move it up even tighter. I wouldn't dare be either long or short on the market right now, but I'm long on VIX options. I think we're going to see some choppy waters in the near future. The Magic Money Elves rush in to rescue every dip, but I think the odds are in your favor betting on the VIX every time it gets knocked back down to Sleeping Beauty levels and against it every time it double-spikes.
Don't be so sure. All-out nuclear war would make it drop by 10%. Maybe even 12%.
But then it would recover to new highs within a month or two.
Hey, don't blame him for your inability to grasp sarcasm.
Actually, the way things have been going, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the S&P blows well past 10,000 in the next 5-10 years.
Nominal stock values surge during runaway inflation.
Why was the regularly scheduled daily surge right before the close cancelled today? In fact, it actually traded *down* a bit in the last few minutes, and on top of that, it has drifted down after hours instead of up, while VXX spiked a little bit after the bell instead of collapsing.
Did someone drop a nuke?
Oh, I actually did post about that in another thread. Many times today, VXX held steady while SPY was rising, and toward the end of the day it actually rose *simultaneously* with SPY. The VIX tends to trend counter SPY, but short term options on the VIX do so even more reliably. Most days, VXX moves in the opposite direction from SPY almost tick by tick. If it actually moves *with* SPY intermittently, this is a very strong signal that a reversal is coming.
Thanks for the cogent analysis. We should all consider carefully the information and solid arguments presented here.
I think you're right. VIX options climbing simultaneously with SPY? That's a rare alignment of the stars, and it's usually a strong omen.