12.6% in a month or two? That's out of bounds even if the uptrend continues uninterrupted for that long, but if you think there will be a 5-10% correction and *then* the Naz will go to 5K, all within the space of a month or two, you must not have looked at any charts recently...maybe not ever.
Because that's not low enough for VXX to go to 29 so I can sell half my calls for a guaranteed overall profit on the trade while holding the rest as a hedge against my VXX short. Plus VXX isn't high enough for me to re-short what I covered on Wednesday. I want 210, dammit!
Oops, shouldn't have posted that. Now "they" know what I need and they won't give it to me, just to spite me. :|
Awwww, does that mean I have to sell my VXX 27 calls right now?? Can't I keep them just in case, with a limit order right above break-even at 82 cents? Pleeeease?
mavrik.hounded just called Sarah Palin a "smart lady". That says it all. There's nothing more I need to add, just pointing it out is enough. That sums up all you really need to know about him in a nutshell. :)
Since you asked, in fact I did buy 27 calls (expiring next week, not tomorrow). I believe VXX was at ~27.05 when I placed my first buy, though I don't recall exactly. It was about a minute or two after I posted here about the odds being favorable for a short term trade on VXX calls, you can cross-reference the time stamp if you really want to know. I placed a second buy when VXX dipped below 27, but not at the absolute bottom, so in fact it would have been pretty close to 26.90. Not bad, you got two out of three right! I also placed a limit order for a third buy that was just missed. That one was for .72, VXX would have had to go down another ~.10-.15 to fill that one. Those are all facts no matter how much of an idiot you insist on being.
I considered selling half when the value was a little more than double my cost basis just after 11 this morning, but I held on for more, so I'll have to sell at or near break even if VXX opens lower tomorrow.
Thank you for your inexplicable interest in the details of my trading. ;)
Have you learned NOTHING from Nostradamus??!
To increase your success record in telling the future, you have to word your predictions vaguely and cryptically enough so that later there's lots of leeway to interpret your words in a way that fits whatever actually ends up happening. If you're too precise, then later either you're right or you're wrong, and if you're wrong all the time people can call you on it.
Kibbles understands how this works. When one doesn't have a clue how to trade, one needs to make one's predictions not only vague but also practically unintelligible; what you posted is just a recipe for embarrassment.
Okay, that's more realistic. Earlier today you were saying they might raise it as high as 2% in a mere 25 years, and that's just crazy talk!
But...but....I just covered part of my VXX short this morning and bought calls, and you're telling me to short more already? It's too soon. Why don't I sell my calls and short more tomorrow when VXX is higher, is that okay? :)
Here's a real call: This is going to stall out and pull back over the next couple of days, but this is not the start of a collapse. The highs will at least be re-tested, and probably broken, at least once or twice, before any major correction begins. That's further down the road.
As I posted earlier today, this was a good point for a short term trade on VXX calls, but I really don't see a trend reversal coming at this point, just a brief pullback.
I do see multiple signs that a major correction is coming in the near future, but I really don't think this is it. It's too early after the bull flag breakout, without any real catalyst for a reversal. I don't think the reversal is going to happen all at once. The top will form gradually rather than being the straight down dive off a cliff from all time highs that so many people on this board seem to be expecting. And there are several very good reasons why it works that way.
No. But it's due for a down day, maybe even a pullback. Probably good odds right now to make a quick buck by averaging into VIX or VXX calls, considering how stubbornly those have been holding up recently (VIX staying above 15 for a week with the S&P setting new highs, VXX "outperforming" both SPY and VIX throughout the entire bull flag and still refusing to go to new lows). But if you're too piggy about it I think you'll be sorely disappointed.
Probably the same way I've been able to survive without any product whose name begins with a lowercase "i" followed by a capital letter, because they're all annoying.
Why will they try to exit all at once? Because Janet Yellen said "I want to handle this in a manner that will have the least possible negative impact on stock prices, so I'm going to take one baby step at a time and then watch the stock market reaction to decide how small the next move should be and how long it should be procrastinated."?
Okay, maybe that's not a verbatim quote, but that's what I heard.
Because there are a lot more of them than there are savers. :)
Really, this is the political equivalent of asking what 2 + 2 equals.
(You do realize that the Fed chair is for all intents and purposes a government official, don't you?)
Why is this post missing from the thread when it's still in my posting history? Did bagels_and_bacon delete the post I was replying to because he was (understandably) embarrassed?
For the record, I'm not saying that anyone who knows what they're doing can always correctly predict exactly which way the market is going, but in some cases it's freaking obvious, and this was one of them.
Fools who chase rallies that they regret missing out on...and there's no shortage of those.
Anyone who knows what they're doing already bought weeks ago.