Which is incredibly stupid, because this kind of weather has minimal impact on jobs. It's an excuse for poor retail numbers, factory orders, etc., but not for jobs.
Maybe because he didn't lose the bet until 15 minutes after you posted this message?
What are you even talking about? The link from the "summary" page is still there, was there any other?
The market hasn't closed yet. This is a full day, there's no holiday. Just pointing that out, since you don't seem to have noticed. Unless you're stretching the definition of "Thursday will be green" to mean that it's green at any point throughout the day. But in that case, it has been both red and green multiple times today. Does that mean you both have to leave?
Not even a chance. But maybe in a couple of weeks, depending on how deep this pullback ends up going. I'm starting to have my doubts about new highs, though, in light of the downward turn in the overall trend of economic data. Either way I expect the highs to be re-tested. But not in the next few days.
He didn't make any bets with me, but I just want to know if he still thinks I'm crazy and need to wake up and open my eyes because I said Monday afternoon that I think the S&P is still in pullback mode. Do I only think it has resumed the pullback since then because I'm crazy and it's all a delusion in my mind, or is it because I still haven't woken up and opened my eyes, so I'm just dreaming that it's still going down? Or maybe, just maybe, it actually has been pulling back since then? Nah, that couldn't be it...
No he doesn't, that just the point. He makes his "calls" vague, ambiguous, and unintelligible enough that he can later he can make them out to have meant whatever ends up actually happening.
LMFAO! I can't think of a sounder basis for making trading decisions than the fact that the term used for someone who is optimistic about the stock market happens to be the name of a stupid animal.
The only problem with that is that pigs are generally considered the smartest of all animals typically found on farms (including cats and dogs), in fact they're one of the most intelligent non-primates. So that would be an argument for being greedy, and if we follow this line of reasoning to its logical conclusion, we should conclude bulls are stupid only because they set their sights too low, and it's smarter to be downright piggy.
LOL...and he told me *I* was crazy when I said on Monday afternoon that I thought the market was still in pullback mode. Told me to wake up and open my eyes. Well, I did exactly that the following morning, only to see lower prices. I suppose that was just a delusion, because I'm stark raving mad?
Why would you need to ask? Aren't you supposed to be clairvoyant, always knowing in advance exactly what's going to happen? (Only in your own mind, of course, but that still makes it out of character to ask this kind of question.)
No, no, you've got him all wrong. Crazy people can be quite intelligent. Embitteredtroll isn't a moron. He's insane.
LOL...you don't really need stops for a short position on VXX. :)
Despite what I've been saying about the pullback, I've only covered 40% of my short position on VXX (a little bit at ~27.9, IIRC, but mostly when it dipped under 27). But the time looked ripe for a short term play in VXX calls a week ago, and I think that trade has more upside left.
In any case, direct TA on VXX has very limited value. You're better off setting your targets for VXX based on SPY charts and the *relative* trend of VXX to SPY.
I wouldn't be so sure. It still looks short-term bearish to me. Either the highs will be re-tested over the next few days and then it will go lower, or it will continue lower without returning to the highs, but either way I'm quite sure it's going below this morning's low before we see any new all-time highs.
Whether this is the start of a significant correction remains to be seen. It's possible, but I doubt it. At this point I'm still expecting more all-time highs before the next major correction, but the current pullback does not appear to be over yet. Probably the already "expected worse-than-expected" reports tomorrow and/or Friday will be the excuse (or "catalyst", if you're less cynical than I am) for further pullback. Better than expected numbers would short-circuit the pullback, but that's unlikely.
Yep. Another way of saying the trading adage I keep quoting, "trade what you see, not what you think".
When I posted that on Feb 5, and said that anyone who couldn't see that the S&P was headed to new highs should just quit trading, one character by the nick of "balastrona" actually responded by saying "make sure you see what's coming not what you saw", in quotation marks as if it holds the same status as an adage. That is the essence of what you're calling "a hangup on 'why'". Those who short a breakout from a two month bull flag because they're bearish on the overall economic fundamentals really shouldn't be trading. Or maybe they should...without them around whose money are we going to take?
Much as I respect Peter Schiff, if that's really what he's saying (and I reserve judgment until I hear it directly from him, since people tend to put words in his mouth a lot), then I beg to differ. In 2000 the naz was in a runnaway bubble, and as loosely as people like to use the term "bubble", that was a *real* one and the current situation isn't even remotely comparable. Back then everyone was tripping over each other rushing to "get in on the ground floor" on new technology that they rightly assessed would change the face of business but failed to see that wildly optimistic speculation about several years worth of earnings were already priced in. People were throwing money at companies with triple-digit P/E's and ones that had no history of ever making profits and no viable business plan to do so in the future just because of their high-tech "cool" factor. Nothing comparable is happening today.
The naz could lose 30-50% in the next bear market, but an 80% crash is not in the cards.
I don't know about a correction, but I think it's still in the process of pulling back, and will go below 210 at some point in the next few days. I was called crazy yesterday afternoon for daring to suggest it was still in pullback mode, and the strong close made me second-guess my call, but since the bull flag breakout failed, I'm now very confident that it's going below 210 at some point in the next few days, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 208 or 207. I guess that means I'm even crazier now than I was yesterday.
I still don't see any reason to think this is the start of a major correction, though. That's coming in the near future, but I think the highs will be re-tested and probably broken after this pullback. Too soon to call it, though. But right now the odds favor a short term long trade on the VIX. I'm still holding on to mine and rolled over some calls just before the close, because I guess I'm too crazy and stupid to sell them at break-even as I had planned. :)