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hedgehog25 564 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 11 minutes ago Member since: Aug 1, 2007
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  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    LOL, did you ever read the New York Times Magazine article about Jonathan Lebed getting in trouble with the SEC when he was 15? The article made a good case that the SEC went after him for doing exactly what the professionals do - buy stocks they think have potential, then issue analyses promoting the stocks in order to try to convince people to buy them and drive the price up, then sell at a higher price to the very people they're advising to buy - and that the SEC's argument that it's not the same because he's not a professional so he's not qualified to give stock advice really amounts to saying that he can't be allowed to do it because he's not part of the club. In other words, they were mad that he was stealing their action and wanted to nail him in order to stop the competition.

    (Anyone who hasn't read the article, google the title "Jonathan Lebed: Stock Manipulator, S.E.C. Nemesis -- and 15". It's a VERY good read, and makes a very valid point.)

    It's the same deal with this trader. He's a foreigner and an independent trader, trading for himself rather than working for a Wall Street institution, so he's being charged with a crime for doing what the fat cats do all the time, and even more unforgiveable, beating them at their game.

    Anyone who has ever traded small caps and kept a close eye on LII quotes tick by tick knows that institutions do this sort of thing ALL...THE...TIME. If he had done the same thing working for Goldman Sucks or JP Morgan Chase-the-Rally, instead of being arrested he would have gotten a bonus as fat as his boss.

    BTW, thank you, Mr. Sarao. I made money on that day too. I was short to begin with, and when the plunge got out of hand I covered in several stages, then started buying, and sold at the end of the day. I didn't make $40 million bucks, but I did okay. ;)

  • Reply to


    by gil_hanscomb143 Apr 22, 2015 2:54 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    Terrible call! You weren't even close!

    *wiseass grin*

  • Reply to

    Shouldn't EBay's good news lift AAPL share price?

    by arq33333 Apr 22, 2015 7:08 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    Heck, let it stay down until they report. That way calls will be cheaper on Monday than they are now.

  • Reply to

    Correction's last stand

    by hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 3:50 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    The battle line was drawn at 128.50. It's all over. The battle swung back and forth, but when the dust settled, Charging Bull had won a hard-fought victory.

    Gen. Correction's bloody corpse will be scraped off the battlefield next week.

  • Reply to

    AAPL WILL CLOSE AT $128.62

    by gil_hanscomb143 Apr 22, 2015 3:16 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    You shouldn't be. You've been had. With less than an hour to go, he called literally every price from 128.24 to 128.97, then bumped the post that was correct.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    Is "from here" slang for "tomorrow" in your part of the world?

  • Reply to

    FB reaction is very telling

    by hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 4:29 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    *shrug* I'll leave it to others to speculate about the reasons, I'm just interpreting what I see.

    FB has drifted lower since I posted this, but it's still only down 3%. If there were any fear in this market, it would have gone under 80 within the first couple of minutes and continued sliding down the tubes all evening.

  • Reply to

    FB reaction is very telling

    by hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 4:29 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    But that's not what I'm driving at. I'm talking about gauging market sentiment based on how stocks react to earnings reports. I'm not expressing any opinion on how the market should react, nor surprise at how it has reacted. I'm observing how it's reacting and drawing inference from that.

    One of the early warning signs of a bearish reversal is that stocks that fail to impress, even if they don't miss and in some cases even if they beat by a little, get hammered. You may recall, for example, that in early 2008, stocks of companies that were reporting inline or even small beats were getting slaughtered as if they had missed by a mile.

    What we're seeing now is the opposite. When a momo stock trading at sky-high multiples reports inline, dashing rosy expectations and confirming that it's way overvalued, and hardly moves at all, that's a sign of bullish sentiment..

    Sure, things are down a little AH since the report, but I'm willing to bet that futures will be cranked up overnight and open bright green. Besides, FB isn't considered a bellwether company. GOOG tomorrow and AAPL on Monday are an order of magnitude more significant, and they won't disappoint.

  • A stock trading at a 76 TTM P/E and 42 forward P/E reports essentially inline (paper-thin beat on EPS, paper-thin miss on rev), and hardly gets punished at all. Down barely 1%. It was actually above the closing price for a couple of minutes.

    Also, notice what a severe beating YHOO took for yesterday's miss. Down a horrifying, jaw-dropping 1.16%. It's as if the bottom fell out! ...and came to rest on a concrete slab half an inch below.

    This is NOT how the market reacts to lackluster earnings at the start of a bearish reversal.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Which is an evasive answer. He stated a fact, but if I'm not mistaken, he neglected to mention whether they actually *follow* the law.

    Interviewer: OJ, did you get away with murder? Did you kill your ex-wife and her boyfriend?
    OJ: By law, I'm not allowed to kill anyone.

    See, Bernanke says that by law the Fed is only allowed to buy treasuries and agencies, but Greenspan had admitted then when he was Fed chairman, he manipulated forex. What does that tell you?

  • hedgehog25 by hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    This is the final battle between General George Armstrong Correction and Chief Charging Bull. The winner of this battle will control the territory for the foreseeable future.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    See, it keeps gravitating to the 210.40s EOD like a magnet. The last 20 minutes will be critical today. If it can make a final push to break this resistance, new all-time highs within days are all but a foregone conclusion. If it fails to break after being well above it intra-day, for the fourth time in barely a week, that'll be very bearish for the short term.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    I didn't say they were. In fact, that's the whole point.

    In case it was unclear, when I said "This is all in reference to daily charts, not what happens intra-day", that only applied to the last paragraph. I didn't think I needed to spell that out, since the first paragraph clearly was talking about intra-day activity.

  • Reply to


    by gil_hanscomb143 Apr 22, 2015 2:44 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    He's insane, but that's not exactly news. He keeps trying to guess exact closing prices to the penny, and states his guesses as if they're facts that he knows. And now he's posting new guesses several times a minute, changing the number by a penny or a few pennies each time.

    Oh, yeah, and he's always wrong.

  • Reply to


    by gil_hanscomb143 Apr 22, 2015 2:44 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    There's no way that's going to happen. But by the end of the week, almost definitely.

    My best guess for today is between 128.60 and 129.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    I'm not too sure about today's close either, but I think today's close will determine the direction for at least a week. A close above 210.50 (by more than a few pennies) would confirm that it's heading to new highs. But if it fails to break that resistance, it will probably bounce off of it hard this time. In other words, if it nosedives in the last hour to close under 210.50 yet again, then it's very likely head back down to the bottom of the range it's been in for the last couple of months, i.e. ~204-205. If that happens quickly, the chance of a correction will be extremely high, and I'll be banging my head against the wall for giving up on the correction and getting shaken out on the second to last upfake.

    For now, I still think it's going to head straight from here to new highs, but that depends on a close where it is now or higher. I'm tentatively predicting another leg up in the last hour to a new HOD, and a close near the HOD.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    211 wasn't the significant level, 210.4X was. The two "stalls" last week were EOD moves to close beneath that resistance. That was the level that has provided intra-day resistance over and over and over, and on days that it broke above that intra-day, that was a magnet for the closing price. I contend that if it had closed at 211, or even 210.75, on any of those occasions, we'd already be at new highs.

    If it breaks 210.4X today, even if it doesn't close above 211, then I expect the next down day move of more than .25% to begin above 212.25. This is all in reference to daily charts, not what happens intra-day.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    "Kill zone"...LOL!

    There's a stubborn resistance level in the 210.40s. If it breaks through that and closes any significant amount above 210.50, it's going to new highs. There's nothing significant about either 210.75 or 211.

    For this purpose I'd consider anything more than ~.20 a "significant amount".

  • Reply to


    by gil_hanscomb143 Apr 21, 2015 3:39 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 22, 2015 1:14 AM Flag

    What does any of that have to do with max pain? Do you even know what max pain means, or are you just using a term you've seen that you don't understand and guessing what you think it sounds like it means?

  • Reply to

    YHOO ouch!

    by frank_capra_04 Apr 21, 2015 4:11 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Apr 21, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    Not much of a reaction, though. Half an hour later it seems to have stabilized at down 1.5% from the close.

81.26-0.65(-0.79%)12:49 PMEDT