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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

hedgehog25 241 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 31, 2015 12:19 PM Member since: Aug 1, 2007
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  • Reply to


    by martygx Jul 31, 2015 11:44 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 31, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    His primary goal *is* of course to move the stock to cash in on a short position, but Andy Left doesn't just pick stocks at random and tell lies about them. He looks for stocks that he actually believes are priced too high. Why wouldn't he? It's to his advantage to pick on stocks where he has a strong case against them rather than fight an uphill battle trying to convince people of nonsense.

    Some of the stocks he targets are outright scams. Others have business plans that aren't viable. Some, on the other hand, have a solid business, but are just way overvalued because too many people are excited about them. In the latter case, the stock may very well recover and do quite well long term, if the business keeps growing. Your basic point, however, is right: either way, the vast majority of stocks he targets drop sharply after he reports on them - which is usually after a big runup, when they're ready to let off some steam anyway, and the Citron report serves as a catalyst.

    In the case of AMBA, I'm not going to speculate right now on what will happen to the business long term, but I do agree that it's overvalued. I think Citron's price target of 40-60 is exaggerated, but that's probably deliberate. For reasons I've previously explained, I think 90 - 100 is a more appropriate price right now. That's a price that fully takes into account not just expected growth, but growth well above analyst estimates, and still accords the stock a high valuation.

    In short, I think AMBA deserves a high valuation, but not *this* high.

    (Yeah, pun intended ;)

  • Reply to

    Well, surely china takes a

    by renaissance_2006 Jul 27, 2015 4:38 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 27, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    Oh, is that so? Well then it's ironic that China it taking lessons from the U.S. on how NOT to have a free market.

    I'm sure a lot of investors will appreciate being able to sell their stocks to the government while nobody else is interested in buying them.

  • Reply to

    Another Day Of Strange Market Action

    by trollalert2013 Jul 27, 2015 6:37 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 27, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    My explanation for the net buying is that it's the middle of the summer and lots of people are planning on going on fishing trips.

    Other than that I got nothing.

  • Reply to

    Well, surely china takes a

    by renaissance_2006 Jul 27, 2015 4:38 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 27, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    Why "surely"? It's possible, but bloodbaths like this are followed by further panic-selling about as often as they're followed by snapback rallies. And remember that China has a real stock market; there's no PPT to step in and save the day, and a corollary effect of traders buying dips with confidence because they know that the short term downside is limited once there's been a bloodbath.

    Maybe it will take a break tonight. Or maybe it will break down. I don't see it as a high odds snapback play unless it keeps selling off like the sky is falling for a few more days.

  • Reply to


    by mo_locrees_brother Jun 24, 2015 2:46 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 27, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    I don't see what any of that has to do with either overbought or oversold. Those are technical analysis terms that get misused a lot because people see them used and assume they just mean a gut feeling that something has been bought or sold too much.

    Even now I don't see a single oversold condition on the daily, weekly, or monthly charts. On the hourly chart, a few of the oscillators are at "oversold" levels, but that doesn't mean much by itself. Overall, SPY is not at all oversold. Because of the way it has been bouncing around in a range for so long, a trend needs to be steep and last for weeks in order to create significant oversold or overbought conditions.

    Those who think they know what's going to happen next are welcome to risk their money, but based on technicals I don't think there's a solid basis for predicting the short term direction from here. There are many reasons to expect that a correction is developing, but just as many reasons to anticipate new highs. I had a position in UVXY going into today that I accumulated while the VIX was hovering around 12, but I dumped it in the afternoon because I see no reason to be in this right now. Makes more sense to wait until some actual basis for a trading call emerges.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 27, 2015 1:44 AM Flag

    Don't be silly. Yahoo doesn't ban people for being too sarcastic, even if it annoys you.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 27, 2015 12:37 AM Flag

    You jump to a lot of conclusions, make a lot of assumptions, and none of what you say here is even relevant. Just a bunch of non sequitur drivel.

  • Reply to

    bought in at 12

    by ruswise Jul 23, 2015 2:44 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    I say you're aiming way too low. Once they can hook the device directly into the brain rather than the optic nerve, which is something they've indicated they're making very promising progress on, the potential to branch out into all sorts of directions becomes enormous. At that point the stock will easily command a multi-billion dollar market cap. From 12 you should hold for at least a five-bagger, and I think that's still being conservative. Maybe sell half when it doubles (notice I didn't say "if"), then you're playing with house money.

    Some people say to sell the rips, because it's been so consistent about coughing up every gain. I say that while there's nothing wrong with trimming your position at the edges by selling a small percentage when it pops and adding it back lower, if you sell too much on the pops you could find yourself left behind and chasing a torrential rally any time without warning.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    "That’s not a typo"

    Not sure why anyone would think it is. It's not even a little bit surprising. As I've posted before, it's been clear all along that the groundbreaking technology they're developing (and patenting) will have more and more applications in the future. So anyone who thinks it makes sense to value it according to its one current product and current TAM is blind enough to need Second Sight's products.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    Anyone who shorts this is a complete idiot. Sure, you can make some money on pops multiple times. Until the day comes when it skyrockets and you lose a multiple of your profits from all the short trades combined before you even know what hit you.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    I don't mind being called an idiot and getting thumbs down from people who actually *are* idiots as long as I make the right trading calls and make money. It's funny how lately on this board it seems that there's a strong correlation between how many thumbs down a post gets and how right it is. ;)

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg's oil hit piece

    by blotechproflteer Jul 23, 2015 10:25 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Actually, that's a good thing geopolitically. Why deplete our own natural resources when OPEC countries are eager to deplete theirs and sell them to us, while we keep more of ours in reserve?

    OPEC no longer can use oil to exert political influence the way it used to, because the member countries are more strapped for cash and we have more idle resources to tap in case of an embargo - and since petrostates know that, they wouldn't bother with an embargo in the first place.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    Good point - that's a big part of the reason why sharply dropping oil prices are slow to be reflected in higher demand. Refiners see it as an opportunity to make higher profit margins because consumer prices are very inelastic.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    That's if you really want to make sure you don't miss out. See the comments qualifying this that I just posted in the thread titled "What's the buy level? $16". In summary, this is the first point from which I'd say that there's a *possibility* that the bottom is near, but I wouldn't recommend buying more than 15-20% of your target position size at this point. WTI under $45 is when the risk/reward ratio becomes really attractive. And if it doesn't go under $45, it's not as if you'll be missing out on a huge runup.

  • Reply to

    What's the buy level? $16

    by mtay515 Jul 23, 2015 1:31 PM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    I think the buy level for anything other than a short-term bounce is when WTI drops below 45, or if production starts showing a pattern of decreasing.

    If you really want to make sure you don't miss out, then the buy level is now, but if you do that, I'd recommend starting with a small position that you can easily carry of it goes underwater by a few buck, and being prepared to average down. No more than 15-20% of the total position size you actually want. That way, in the unlikely even that there's a sustained rally from here, you'll at least get something, but you won't get hammered in the more likely case that it will go under 45.

    Really, though, although I posted yesterday advising the above, since so many people here seem so eager to get in, I don't really see a compelling reason to jump the gun to make sure you don't miss out. It's not as if oil is going way up any time soon, so it's not as if missing out will mean you'll miss out on huge profits. It's better trading practice to wait until your risk/reward ratio is more favorable than to hyperfocus on making sure you don't miss out on something. The lower it goes, the safer your trade and the higher your profit potential. So there's really no need to try to catch this falling knife now. If you wait for sub-45, you'll be getting in at a point where the downside risk is minimal and there's more room for it to go up. And if it doesn't go below 45, it's not as if you'll miss out on some epic bull market.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Well, you know the saying, "there's no fool like an old fool". If he really believes what he keeps saying, that's just sad. He has more than enough experience in this field to know better.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    You have T. Boone Pickens on ignore? That's who I was talking about.

    As for rexmundixed, do you have him on ignore because you don't like sarcastic posts by people who agree with you, or because you didn't pick up on the fact that his posts are dripping with sarcasm making fun of wide-eyed oil longs?

  • Reply to

    What is the opposite of UCO?

    by golftheband_onemanshow Jul 23, 2015 10:37 AM
    hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    DTO is a double short ETF, but it's a little different. It rebalances monthly rather than daily, so it's less precisely double short, but it's not subject to the mathematical decay that most daily leveraged ETFs are subject to.

    DWTI is a triple short ETF. I had a great time riding that from the low 60s all the way to the low 90s in just a couple of weeks, then switched to DTO for a while to be safer. Of course in retrospect I wish I'd had the balls to stick with DWTI, it's at 112 now.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    Well, that was less of a bounce than I expected. But from here, I think the chance of an intra-day bounce is even higher. We'll see if my strategy works. I averaged down, will cut the position in half just above break-even (assuming it gets there), then should see some profits from the remainder.

  • hedgehog25 hedgehog25 Jul 23, 2015 1:27 AM Flag

    Seriously, that guy has either gotten totally out of touch, or he's a liar. The argument for the latter is that hedge fund managers are usually liars who try to trick the public into playing into their hedge fund's hands. The argument for the former is that he's pushing 90.

    I'll make a prediction with very high odds: T. Boone Pickens will not live to see his 70+ prediction come true.

64.12-0.41(-0.64%)Jul 31 4:01 PMEDT