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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

hedgiesqueezer 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 29, 2013 10:15 PM Member since: Jun 26, 2013
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  • You've been absolutely destroyed on this one. It has been one for the ages. Again, go back and read my post dated August 21. How could you be so dumb as to short a stock trading at 1.5 x TTM EV/EBITDA, with a 18% FCF yield and with over half of its share price in net cash? Not a good idea. Even Citron warned you that it was going to $30 (and we're not there yet, either...) Now you're back for more punishment. Stop. Think. Cover. Live to fight another day. You can thank me later.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Oct 29, 2013 9:49 PM Flag

    You can't use a simplistic P/E approach to valuing APOL (or any stock, for that matter, I would argue). Take a look at APOL using a sum-of-parts approach, taking into account the value of U of P, technology biz, other businesses, cash, etc. and you'll come up with something closer to $34/$35 per share. And that gives the stock NO CREDIT for any present value of accretive deals done in the future with all the cash on hand. So if you look at it a bit more deeply you'll see the real value....hope this helps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Oct 29, 2013 8:37 PM Flag

    Remember me ladies and gents? Hope those of you who were short covered as per my recommendation. Can't say I didn''t give you a chance. If you didn't cover, and even worse, shorted more, shame on you....go back to Investing 101 (if you can afford the tuition now, and BTW, I think U of Phoenix offers a class very similar to the one you'll need to be enrolling in). Things played out pretty much as I expected and even better, I see the stock (and the group) working higher as M & A begins to kick in. Those of you who went long on my recommendatioin, congrats to you and I hope you enjoyed squeezing the hedgies AGAIN. Hats off and stay tuned for my next call.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 29, 2013 9:01 PM Flag

    I guess no one believed me. But that's OK, next time you'll know to attach more credibility to my posts. Steve really came through and the price was far higher than anyone was expecting. Watch the shorts scramble and the stock soar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer by hedgiesqueezer Aug 26, 2013 8:41 PM Flag

    Uncle Carl will pull the ole pump-n-dump, just like he used to when he realized he bit off more than he could chew. (Don't forget he owns far less than 5%....) Einhorn, who's at least ten times smarter, couldn't find success and bailed. In fact, Uncle Carl may already have started selling. By the way, did you happen to see all the insider selling at AAPL last week?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 23, 2013 8:47 PM Flag

    They have an outstanding buyback program that was announced a while ago but up until recently they have not bought back any shares because they were waiting for the HLC's decision. (If you go back and take a look at last Q's financials you'll see they did not buy back a single share.) Now that is behind them and the massive cash pile they are sitting on will be put to work shortly: the re-start of share repo once again or an accretive international acquisition. Either way the stock moves (materially) higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 21, 2013 9:59 PM Flag

    Can you say "CLUELESS"? The IPO price was $26. Crawl back into your hole.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • All the selling here is technically-driven (ETF and MA triggered) so don't be intimidated. Notice that today's sell-off was on very light volume. It's meaningless and is creating a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick up the shares at less than 2 x CASH FLOW. Once the buyback program kicks back in (shortly), the squeeze will ensue. Step up to the plate - you can thank me later when the stock moves back up 50% to the high $20s.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 20, 2013 3:28 PM Flag

    No one is complaining about the volatility, just the insanity behind it. Swings of 10% to 25% are rare (or at least should be in an semi-efficient market) and offer tremendous opportunity for the educated and prepared investor to think as a contrarian and capture outsized returns over the long term. It's the short term-oriented traders (read: HFs) that end up getting taken behind the woodshed as they (more often than not) react irrationally to events without taking the big picture into account.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Here's What's REALLY Going on with APOL...

    by hedgiesqueezer Aug 1, 2013 9:34 PM
    hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 19, 2013 9:10 PM Flag

    Today (and tomorrow) present your opportunity....don't waste it. Your patience paid off. This is a gift. Buy under $19, stay long for the ride north of $30.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • He can spin it, IPO it, or even sell it. There are at least 3 serious buyers, one European, but more likely a Middle Eastern party when all said and done. It generates roughly $1.5B in FCF, an amount that the market is clearly ignoring. I find it hard to believe that at these levels the stock is essentially discounting a big fat doughnut for an asset of this quality. A foreign entity recognizes real value where the short-sighted (or should I say short-sided, pun intended?) American HFs do not. Get ready for another (massive) squeeze when that hits the tape.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Recent insider buy at ZTS a great sign

    by hedgiesqueezer Aug 14, 2013 8:49 PM
    hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 15, 2013 9:27 PM Flag

    Your info is stale. In addition, insiders Heidi Chen and Stefan Weiskopf were buyers. Icing on the cake? SAC is just about done selling....expect the stock to lift big time over the next couple of weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ZTS Board member Michael McCallister (Chairman of Humana's Board as well) just bought a block of stock. This is very good sign. He is very experienced and knows the business extremely well. Once the short term traders and HFs get out (and there are several of them selling here, like SAC, Tudor, and others) the stock is going to go on a relatively quick run to the high $30s. Buy the forced selling by these guys, this is your chance. Mark it down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is APOL Stock Rising

    by dahnshaulis Aug 8, 2013 9:55 AM
    hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 14, 2013 8:39 PM Flag

    Sounds like you're short. APOL will continue to head higher, so cover (smart strategy) or get ready for the big squeeze. Let's clear up some of the BS you're slinging. The "scrutiny ahead from several agencies" will not materialize. The HLC's recent decision is final and binding (and for two years). "Huge lawsuits"? C'mon. That's ridiculous. Don't make stuff up. That's bush league, something an amateur does. Grow up. The truth is that the stock is as cheap as any stock in the market. Enrollment trends at U of P have bottomed and are improving. The smart money has noticed and they are covering and going long. The stock is headed to $30 or higher, I've said this in prior posts. Mark it down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Aug 5, 2013 8:56 PM Flag

    Clever...are you short?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • No wonder the group is catching a powerful bid. The shorts are scrambling to cover (and go long) as the bear case has disintegrated. I suspect we'll get confirmation from Devry next week as well. Citron might be wrong on APOL....$30 might be too low.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So the rumors flew early in the day that Third Point was getting ready to file BUT a rep from the hedge fund quickly contacted CNBC (after a #$%$ moment) and told them that rumor was untrue....which was factually correct. What CNBC did not tell you was YES, IT ABSOLUTELY WAS THIRD POINT BUYING APOL TODAY (and every day recently leading up to today's massive break-out). How can that be? Because they are covering their MASSIVE short position and aren't anywhere near covered yet. Somehow the news leaked out (could it have been Mr. Ackman?) and so although they won't have to "file", they still have the enormous task of covering their short ahead of them. Oh, and wasn't it a coincidence that Citron tweets mid-morning that the stock is on a clear path to $30 too? Whoa, way to go guys. Payback's a #$%$. Don't believe me? I've been dead right on this stock so far....you should continue to pay attention: COVER AND GO LONG IMMEDIATELY....until next post, enjoy the ride higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I've spoken with everyone on this thing, buy siders, sell siders, shorts, industry experts....they all say the same thing. To a T, everyone loves this story longer term BUT is waiting for the print on the 6th to buy/cover/go long. Think about that for a second....I bet you think you're smarter and faster than the other guy(s), right? Guess what? You're not. My prediction? This thing is up AT LEAST 5% on Tuesday, which means if you're really smart, you're buying it now. I am. You won't see this level again, EVER.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • During today's Lilly earnings conference call, Bloomberg picked up the following headline from a comment made by CEO Lechleiter: "LILLY CEO SAYS LOOKING AT ANIMAL HEALTH M & A, WILL BE AGGRESSIVE". Say what? Did anyone read my post from last night at 9:57 PM? This is one of the greatest opportunities of your lifetime. Holy #$%$. As easy money as I have ever seen. Someone (large) is selling (of course, not paying attention) and YOU are the beneficiary just because you're paying attention. You can thank me later.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hedgiesqueezer hedgiesqueezer Jul 24, 2013 9:52 PM Flag

    Wow...dude, you are in serious state of denial. This was a near perfect quarter. Stock is on its way to $15+. My recommendation to you is bend over, take your enema and cover your short IMMEDIATELY.

APOL
27.70-0.07(-0.25%)Aug 21 4:00 PMEDT

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