Having just read Justin's article I have to say that he is the number one AMD pumper in all the world which is the reason why I try to read his articles.
Justin glosses over the fact that GF having forgiven $190 million of last years wafer contract is now going to receive from AMD additional chips to fabricate even though AMD paid GF $1.2 billion to break their contract with GF when it comes to the freedom to use TSMC.
Justin and AMD supporters would like you to believe that AMD made a profit last year but the truth is if AMD fully paid off GF last yr AMD would not have made the reported profit they claimed. What AMD did was to report the profits but at the same time in lieu of actually paying GF they exchanged maneuverability they so dearly paid for in 2012 and 2013.
What of TSMC? AMD has certainly earned its place at TSMC's table having paid GF $1.2 billion just to work with TSMC. Will AMD start losing that place at the table if suddenly AMD shifts chips over to GF? Think of it this way I have not heard anyone mention Nvidia moving work over to GF, so right there we have Nvidia keeping TSMC wafer demand high while AMD will be juggling two masters. One TSMC does not need AMD and the other GF needs AMD. So much so that GF forgave $190 million, in order to garner more work from AMD.
Zero percent margins is incorrect but even if it is it's called creating a beach head in a market where X86 is almost completely locked out of.
You better hope that Intel is successful since it will be AMD later who will be going after that same market that Intel is creating presently. The same as when Intel created ATOM for the newly created Netbook market 18 months later AMD introduced Brazo which helped AMD gain share in the entry level PC market, which has helped keep AMD afloat since the LLano and Bulldozer fiacos.
No one told AMD to sell its fabrication assets and no one told you to continue to pump AMD after they sold off those assets.
Since Intel is targeting 4X the sales of Intel inside chips and chipsets for 2014 over 2013 this means Intel will fabricate 4X the number of chips making each and everyone of those 2014 chips cheaper by a factor of 2X to 4X. In the past we used to say after a certain volume of chips were made every chip after was basically free.
That is the reason why fab companies want to keep their fabs running at 100% or close to that capacity.
Unlike the foolish AMD who sold off its fabs and now do not enjoy the luxury of selling or rebating free chips, it is stuck paying the likes of TSMC $85 out of every $100 on every console chip fabricated at TSMC.
In other words AMD or Qualcomm have no room to complain both manufacturers choose not have their own fabs and are perfectly happy making TSMC rich. The worst part of it is, AMD and Qualcomm must share the same TSMC process shrink with others that are competing against them.
After reading the replies to Ashraf's article It is clear that the AMD supporters have no Idea what being late to the party means when it comes to design wins. Baytrail has been with us for a year now garnering design wins while Puma is still 4 to 5 months away. The same thing happened to Kabini and is the reason why it is now regulated to third world desktops instead of going blow to blow with Baytrail.
Another point that was not offered in the article or the replies, in the low end Baytrail isn't the only SoCs that Intel offers for that market, they also offer Core Haswell products using the Celeron and Pentium labels.
Do not want to speak for Ashraf but what I believe he means is that Braswell will build upon the foundation that Baytrail has put in place while AMD's Puma did not receive the same kind of support from the Kabini. Thus AMD will have to beg, borrow or steal to persuade PC OEMs to swap from Intel to AMD.
What you think is grand announcing another wafer agreement will continue the focus on the consumer PC side of AMD's business.
You do realize that was the reason for the pullbacks after what guys like yourself perceived as outstanding quarterly earnings last year. True investors realized AMD with its quarterly PC market share losses was not going to earn enough monies to pay GF the $1.13 billion which was owed to them from the 2013 agreement.
You may believe, not achieving this $1.20 billion bases will come without penalty but as we saw back in 2011 2012 Mubadala has a way of taking its pound of flesh in one big chunk instead of making AMD look bad quarterly. The last time it the penalty cost AMD its entire stake in GF and also almost another Billion in cash with the last $200 million of that payment being announced paid this financial quarter. Which by the way is the reason why AMD lowered its minimum cash reserve number from $1.1 billion to $900 million.
So if you really care about your investment in AMD you will as others have pay attention to the CPU unit numbers since those are the numbers that will control AMD's future as an independent company or become just a lackey of Mubadala due to Mubadala demanding it pound of flesh.
AMD tries to make a silk purse out of a sows ear. It was not bad enough that a 290X needed a tri fan cooler to run at specs now we have water cooling needed for the 295X2 to run at specs.
Why the water cooling? This is due to the TDP of the 295X2 is 500 watts the equivalent of 8 X 60 watt light bulbs. If that was not bad enough the 295X2 is way out of spec when it comes to the power draw of the PCI-E 75 watts and 2 8 Pin 150 + 150. Grand total 375 watts leaving a discrepancy of 125 watts to deal with. I guess some PSU suppliers have already built on the extra amperage for each 12 volt rail into their PSU that discrepancy or else sites such as Anandtech could not run test on the 295X2 but those guys are pros while while everyone else will be stuck crossing their fingers and hoping the amperage specs of their PSUs may be telling the truth if not a smoldering motherboard is in their future.
In other words the Hawaii 290x chip was broken from the get go but just like the tri fan cooling of the 290X and the water cooling of the 295X2 it was left to the board partners to salvage the chip from the junkyard. If that was not bad enough now AMD has left it in the hands of PSU suppliers to use up their built in amperage margin of error just to run the 295X2 leaving zero amperage margin of error for their 12 volt rails.
Lastly with all the hype on this board that AMD is the value play with their low ASPs how is it that a ASP of $1500 does not strike AMD supporters as odd?
As I wrote after reading Anandtech's The Gigabyte F2A88X-UP4 review due to overheating of the voltage regulators, Kaveri SoC is a bridge to far for AMD. Even with an Gigabytes exaggerated VRM cooling system the Kaveri chip will throttle down.
This throttling down continues with the review of the cheaper MSI A88XM-E35 without the exaggerated VRM cooling that Gigabyte included with F2A88X-UP4. The writer of the article needed to build his own exaggerated VRM cooling by placing a extra fan close to the VRM in order to continue testing. He goes on to say later in the article that MSI frowns upon Overclocking using the A88XM-E35 and if you must do so it should not be done without the additional fan he added himself. This was funny since getting Kaveri to even run without throttling can only be done by using the extra fan much less overclocking..
Kaveri based upon the Hawaii iGPU is a problem chip just like the discrete 290X was for its board partners. This was true even though TSMC 28 NM was already a tried and true process before Hawaii and Now with Kaveri being fabbed on the GF's just released 28 NM look for problems to continue for AMD and Kaveri.
What this agreement means is that AMD and GF can come out with any number such as $1.2 billion for 2014 but just like last year GF is left holding the bag when AMD falls $100s of millions short , when it comes to actually purchasing that said number of wafers. It also makes clear that AMD's move to black was certainly based upon GF's forgiveness of what was owed to them from AMD in 2013.
What I am saying is this target number has zero to do with trying to forecast how well AMD sales will be this year. It is clear that AMD and GF have a special agreement that allows AMD to produce non competitive designs that lose market share and GF is happy to oblige these market losing designs by forgiving AMD of the responsibility of actually meeting the agreement target,much less exceeding the target which would allow GF to ramp up fabrication.
What does Subsidizing R&D have to do with anything after the chip has been released? when AMD tells you they are making a 15% margin on each chip they are also telling you that they are making $15 a chip. When Microsoft and Sony may have helped AMD finacialy with designing, those financial numbers would have showed up on lowering AMD's reported quarterly R&D spending prior to the quarter these chips were released for sale.
Anyway if you are correct would it not be more embarrassing for AMD to report with subsidy AMD is still making only $15 a chip? what would that number be without your claimed subsidy?
It would be one thing if AMD with Temash didn't target the low power markets, then you would have an argument that this article was unfair and bias. AMD did target the low power PC and Tablet markets without much success.
Most of the replies to Asraf were not the pros or cons of Temash but pointing out in support of other markets such as consoles. What does that have to do with Temash and AMD's ability to protect its low end from Intel or ARM.
Your other view that with rebates Intel is subsidizing its Baytrail tablet business, just as you see nothing wrong with AMD selling the largest SoC ever produced for a net profit of $15 each thus subsidizing the actual cost of this generation consoles, I see nothing wrong with Intel rebating some of its fab capacity in order to improve their Tablet share and at the same time protect their PC low end business, from the ARM tablet producers.
It is always hard for facts to get into the way of AMD fantasy. Case in point, For the last two yrs every time a new AMD product does not perform up to the hype Mr Read and pumpers rolls out the tried and true excuse, our focus is not on the PC consumer arena we are focusing on custom chips.
Imagine working for AMD when your CEO is out there lambasting the Consumer PC unit and praising the custom unit. What incentive is there to deliver a highly polished SOC when your CEO and board have already predicted that the custom unit will pass you in revenue in a short amount of time.
How can you go forward when management is setting you up for failure.
As far as the article is concerned tablets for AMD and Intel is a way of protecting each companies rear end as in the low end of their markets. AMD who depends upon the low end has done little to guard itself from attack by Tablets thus the drop in market share AMD has experienced. This is all you need to know but Mr Read has convinced AMD fanboys that this does not matter any longer since Custom chips is all AMD need to survive.
Only AMD and Nvidia cards who support DirectX 11 are supported for DirectX 12 so your list of Nvidia generations are all DirectX 11. Think of it as Cards that came out after Windows 7 DirectX 11 compliant are supported and card before do not. But I would imagine Multicore CPUs from all generations will be supported and benefit from DirectX 12.
I would not pay much attention to pumpers from both sides since Microsoft is in it for 100% of the video market and would not write an API to serve just 19% of the market that AMD serves.
To give Fuad a break I think he was saying that AMD CPUs supports DirectX 1-3 while Nvidia cards only support parts of those incremental upgrades to DirectX 11.
What is clear so far is DirectX 12 is an incremental improvement over Direct 11 just as DirectX 11.1, .2 and .3 were since it is Microsoft itself that claims that 50% of the hardware at present will run DirectX 12.
So what we have with DirectX 12 is not a GPU advancement that would demand all new GPU hardware just as DirectX 9, 10, and 11 have, DirectX 12 is a Interface advancement between the CPU and the GPU. DirectX 12 will allow multi core CPUs to share the load between cores of the chip reducing the load on the main core which has been the bane of AMD's CPUs ever since Bulldozer. In other words DirectX 12 will allow AMD CPUs to perform much better then presently since the Bulldozer was designed for DirectX 12 from the get go.
I will repeat this one more time, the problem with the Bulldozer design was in the consumer PC arena, Microsoft and game developers did not support Multithreading. In other words AMD came up with an design Idea that was stuck in limbo without support for the design. Since then AMD has worked on its single threaded performance at the cost of keeping TDP high.
The Godsend for AMD is exactly what Microsoft will be doing with its OS and DirectX 12 API, introducing Multithreading and moving away from concentrating upon single threading.
If you can Prove to me that AMD with Mantle is in the OS Kernel and also uses all cores via multithreading other then acting as a hardware filter that turns off or lowers game settings then I will agree with you. If not, Mantle is a stop gap for AMD to actually reach 2016 with its non competitive single threaded Bulldozer through Steamroller designs.
Think of this as what happened with GPGPU in the consumer arena, since the advent of the GTX 480 GPUs could do General purpose computing. How many years ago was that? Presently GPGPU is still stuck in limbo due to the cost of creating software for GPGPU in the consumer arena. Microsoft's DirectX 12 may hit the same headwinds, game developers may want to save money by not writing DirectX 12 code placing DirectX 12 in limbo also.
Microsoft has found itself with the Xbox One in the same position that Sony found itself with the PS3. Tech Pumpers for Blu Ray PS3 and Kinect for the Xbox One inside both companies had their visions of creating a living room media center won the day over designers that wanted to create the best gaming rig they could at console pricing. In both cases they missed the customers demand for gaming and added unneeded cost while at the same time forced both Microsoft and Sony to lower gaming abilities in order to keep retail pricing as low as possible.
How could Microsoft fail to remember what happened to Sony. Ultimately Sony needed to cut pricing to Xbox 360 levels, so infact Sony needed to give away Blu Ray for 90% of its lifetime. Microsoft going forward will have to give away Kinect and also be stuck with inferior to Sony PS4 gaming components
The fact that Mantle may give you a warm and fuzzy feeling inside do you really believe Microsoft didn't give all companies a heads up prior to Mantles recent release?
All Mantle is a stopgap effort by AMD to reach 2016 with their non competitive single threaded design.
to answer your other question about DirectX 12 working with Intel and Nvidia only Intel belongs in my thread since Intel has multi core but half of them are virtual and not actual hardware cores. Most tech people realize performance in games are better meet by disabling hyperthreading for gaming.
As far as Nvidia is concerned they belong in the ARM multicore arena and they do not have either the CPU performance or DirectX 11 graphics ability.
So you are saying that within two years AMD will come up with its own Operating system for Mantle?
That is the reason why I wrote that DirectX 12 will be a Godsend for AMD since without Muss or Fuss other then delivering DirectX 12 drivers AMD will receive Multi core support for almost all of its APUs. Which by the way is the reason why AMD designed Bulldozer in the first place. Smaller main core but tons of those cores.
So instead of knocking my thread you should actually read it for what it is the rebirth of the Bulldozer design because everyone that understands CPU tech realizes that AMD APUs compares quite nicely to Intel when running multi threaded apps, it's when they they are matched against Intel in single threaded, gaming for example, they falter due to their design.
I do not believe AMD will do anything to place their Consumer CPU unit in danger of missing out on DirectX 12 promised AMD functionality benefits.
Ask yourself what have AMD fanatics complained about since the first Bulldozer chip? Windows consumer OS did not support individual cores and was basically based upon single threaded performance of the main core.
Now with DirectX 12 Microsoft has promised support for multicore chips and is the reason why DirectX 12 games are pushed out until end of 2015. Although Microsoft claims present DirectX 11 hardware are DirectX 12 compatible it will not be until software developers move away from single threaded to multi threading will DirectX 12 have an impact upon hardware of today.
Since most AMD APUs are based upon 2 actual cores per module and are two or more modules each, AMD stands to gain the most from DirectX 12's multithreading abilities.
I am very surprised that none of the tech sites has experimented with AMD's Mantle to see if it too is based upon multithreading and not just visual downgrading to reach its performance levels. If not Mantle will be a short lived API, if Microsoft is telling the truth and not just Pumping PR the consumer PC world will finally move away from single threading to the long awaited Multi threaded future.
You may be correct but at the same time you must realize that AMD has already, for the last two quarters of 2013, claimed close to $800 million in revenues from sales of these chips. Which means if you are correct they would not be allowed to claim those revenues. All they would be allowed to do is claim actual earnings as in royalties such as they did with the Xbox 360.
Who knows really, AMD is known for their bold investor misdirection!!!!
Having just finished scanning the tech sites I read a announcement on AMD's new Firepro GPU, The announcement did not have many details on the W9100 but it did give informative on the lesser W Firepro cards. For those that pump console sales and revenues I had a good laugh at your expense.
The W9000 which consist of 4.3 billion transistors and card retails for $3990, compare that to the Jaguar Xbox One chip which has 5 billion transistors and retails for $100. I guess it is grand for Sony, Microsoft, and TSMC to have AMD in its pocket while other AMD customers must pay extremely higher rates for chips that aren't close to the size of the Jaguar.
Look for AMD's other OEM customers to demand the same low cost deals from AMD. Why should AMD be allowed via Sony and Microsoft to disrupt PC gaming by extremely discounting chips going into Consoles and at the same time not allowing its PC OEM customers the same chip at those extremely discounted prices?