"...the downside (all the way to zero) is also a realistic outcome."
I disagree. It is not realistic to think Rxi will go to zero, or even much lower. sd-rxrna is not chopped liver, and there are people who know that including Geert. Also, Samcyprone, the out licenses, and the patents have considerable value. This will be taken over (or maybe taken private) long before it goes to zero.
You have a point about the cash on hand.
P.S. Lest one thinks the weak market action shows that this is worthless, my whole point is that it is just overlooked and misunderstood.
A corollary to the above is that the upside is far greater than the downside, and more likely to occur. With a market cap of $13 million and cash of $7.50 million, the likelihood that Rxi will go down much at all is small and the likelihood that it will go up an appreciable amount is quite high, it appears to me.
There are scores, probably even hundreds, of small, clinical stage biotechs on the market. I have been screening them lately and have been buying and selling them. My goal has been to get a 10% gain and get out. [I am a longer term holder with Rxi.] I have noticed a great similarity between them and Rxi:
1. They all target problems where there is a huge market. Often, but not always, an unmet need.
2. Almost all of them have cash that will last no more than a year. That is, they will almost all need money soon.
3. Most, but not all, are debt free.
4. The managements of all of them are enthusiastic and optimistic about the future.
5. Managements almost invariably say that bigger biotechs are looking to deal with them.
6. They almost all claim to have some very unique and valuable feature that will drive them forward and upward.
7. Every single one of them is facing critical, make or break, trial end points or "interim-end-points."
8. Almost without exception they are very, very low on the price chart.
10. Very recently, most of them have come off the bottom a little and appear to be rallying; whether or not that indicates a genuine trend reversal for them individually or for the sector remains to be seen. I must say, however, they almost all have charts that look quite promising at least in the short term.
All of the stocks that I have been trading share the above features with Rxi. So what makes Rxi so appealing? For me it is the extraordinarily low market valuation. All of the stocks I have been trading and screening have the above listed features, as does Rxi, but the ALL except Rxi have market caps of $100 million+.
I truly believe that Rxi is an anomaly in the sector. It has been ground down so low, for so long, that its actual market valuation is no longer even noticed. That, I think, is what sets it off from its peers--and what makes it an extraordinary buy.
It's the lowest ever, or at least for well over a year. It is 13k as of 4/29 which is the last report. That is only 1.4 days to cover.
Makes sense to me. It wouldn't make much sense to be short this stock at the present time..
Get off my case you stalking little pervert. Nobody asked your opinion of me, whoever you are and wherever you came from.
You have a foul mouth and are really creepy. Just go away.
Well, jayfield, you sure are creepy. You should get off my case you pervert.
Are you stalking me jayfield? You know that's a crime and could get you in trouble. It is creepy to follow people around jayfield. And as your post suggests you do, it is even creepier to search out corpses.
There is NOTHING that justifies this having so low ($13 million) market valuation. There is no fundamental reason for it to be selling 22% below its reverse split price. None.
Will it's market price go up to a reasonable valuation? Yes, for sure. When? Dunno but before the end of the year.
Yeah, I got it!
I expect another red thumb for this post too. Very discerning and serious red thumpers here. Not.
2 + 2 = 4.
Just seeing if I get a red thumb for saying something that is clearly true and non-controversial.
That's not a guarantee that a good deal will be made but it is the best we have ever heard on that score from management. This is still risky but less so than before last week's press release, at least that's how it looks to me.
"For a buyout to happen Rxi would have to be sold for at least $500 mil."
Okay with me but where is it written that it would have to be at least $500 mi.?
Make it plain that there is serious interest in this company by other biotech firms. That was not clear, at least not to me, prior to the press release.
It appears that we won't have readouts on the extended dosage cohorts for nasty dermal scars (cohorts 3 & 4 of 1402) until next year, not even for the earliest enrollees. Here's Pavco's statement:
"...we are on track to complete enrollments in cohorts three and four in Study 1402 by the end of the year and anticipate providing preliminary data in the second half of 2016. It is expected that a full interim analysis for cohorts three and four for Study 1402 is expected mid-2017."
Pavco talked about both tyrosinase and collagenase. Here's kind of her summary regarding projected human trials: " Work is ongoing to finalize a delivery formulation to be used with these compounds and our goal is still to initiate consumer testing that is safety testing on volunteers before the end of the year." I take that to mean the delivery mechanisms for collagenous and tyrosinase are expected to be worked out in the next few months.
Geert's review today was clear and comprehensive. The money has not yet been acquired but, as you say, there is not a critical or immediate need for it. Current cash will last for about a year. If the clinical results are good (and enough of them will be available before the current cash runs out), the money will flow in. If not, not.
Geert intentionally did not speculate on the terms of the merger that is being worked on or any of the financial aspects. He did, however, say that there would be significant "synergies" and that the combined company would have a much more extensive and robust pipeline. He also emphasized that the well being of current shareholders would be of paramount concern. He is very savvy and understands that cash requirements would have to be addressed in any merger deal, and Griffin understands that too.
There might be a backup if the deal falls through that Griffin is helping with but Geert did not address that. Nor should he have. The press release, however, did suggest that there are more than one company that Rxi is talking to, though not in advanced stages of discussion yet.
The only really new thing was the potential merger. That, however, is not chopped liver.
I was fully prepared to ask a question but the presentation was so complete and clear that there was nothing left to ask. Really. That was the best Geert has ever done, and Pavco did well too.
Anyway, grabbngo, if you are saying that a question should have been asked, why didn't you ask one?