"I would not be surprised to see RXI license the cosmetic use of these compounds, while retaining the rights for therapeutic use, to an established cosmetic maker such as P&G or J&J."
Precisely. RXII is a very tiny company (about fourteen employees) with very limited working capital (less that $30 million.) They cannot do more than validate the efficacy of sd-rxrna on scars. Beyond that, they will have to either sell out to a large biotech firm or license out (and maybe partner) the myriad of potential other targets.
There has to be ten or twenty or more juicy targets (targets with $1 billion or more in potential sales each) for sd-rxrna. At 8% interest in each as the licensor that would make RXII worth a lot--probably double digit billions of dollars. It's similar to what Microsoft did: Come up with the basic technology and then license it out to oodles of other companies for particular applications.
In sum: Geert aims to interest others in developing, funding and bringing to market the various applications for rxii. Geert intends for rxii to just prove the basic underlying concept and then let others do the heavy lifting. That's all he has the personnel and funds to do.
Autumn, we will make big bucks on this stock. If we have the patience and guts, and things go like I think they will, we will be looking at $25 per each of our shares in five years or less.
The above quote from Autumn (reply button for Autumn's post wouldn't work) is illustrative of why it is difficult to rally hard after a long down slide. All the bulls are used to buying at or near new bottoms and they get kind of spoiled. They don't want to pay rally prices even though those rally prices will soon look really cheap.
Still, if the shares bought earlier are simply held, new buyers will soon push the price up--as will fundamental catalysts.
Actually, recently there have been many more buyers than sellers. The indicator "on balance volume" is generally agreed to be the measure of buyer/seller interest. Since we bottomed at .35, the obv indicator steadily rose until it was way into the overbought territory. It has come down a bit the past two days but is still quite high.
A simple glance at a chart will show you that since we bottomed and reversed direction, down days have noticeably less volume than up days.
The record volume of the past few weeks shows me that there is lots of buying interest in rxii. Do what you want--and, of course you did by selling-- but you are not correct that the general situation is one in which longs are desperate to get out while few want in. That was the case in Tang days but it changed when the trend reversed.
Maybe others know more about this particular matter than I do, but here are some things: The company has flat out said that it will file an IND for ocular scarring very soon. There are some in vitro indications of efficacy that have been shown in almost every company presentation. The company did an experiment with a monkey that indicated sd-rxrna can have therapeutic, non-toxic effects on the retina, and even on the cornea.
Today commodorelckc says it is headed for $.36.
What happened between yesterday and today to change the outlook for rxii? Nothing.
commodorelckc needs to calm down, do his due diligence, make sure there has been nothing new since his last due diligence check, and then take a nap.
RXII will certainly be over a dollar before the nasdaq deadline and it will not reverse split in any case.
Looking at this stock as if it were a chameleon that changes its color every few minutes is silly.
Look for good things to happen with the immanent filing of an IND for retinal scarring. As has been pointed out on this board, retinal scarring is a serious problem that is presently unmet. The potential is staggering and if Rxi Pharma presents evidence that it could be efficacious here, the market price will go way up.
The recent secondary will bring in $26 million. That is enough cash, along with the $6 million or so that was already in the kitty, to last until at least November of 2017. By that time the crucial phase II results from the adaptive Rxi-109 trials on hypertrophic and keloids will be in, as will some early pre-clinical results on optical targets and dermal targets.
If the clinical results and interim results mentioned above are good, very large up front money will flow in for partnering and/or licensing deals--thereby making further dilution unnecessary (but making sharing of future revenue necessary.) it's now all about the biotechnology results and interim results. The money pressure is not now driving the company.
Martians, what you say is false!
There is enough money to get quite a way down the road on the Rxi-109 trials. If, as expected, those trials work out very well, money to continue for years into the future will come from up-front partnering and/or licensing deals.
It is now all about current and near term clinical trials and other clinical work. There is no reason to think that more near term dilution will be necessary.
Forecast: Minimum of $20 per share five years from now.
RXII recently broke through strong resistance at .50 and has stayed there, confirming the reversal from a long downtrend that bottomed at .37. Thursday the stock gaped up on very heavy volume. Friday was a fairly big down day, signaling that Thursday's gap-up would be filled soon. Today (Monday) opened at the bottom of Thursday's gap window and started back up. The trend reversal is intact. We are now at the 50 dma and will continue the up move.
"...RXI now has adequate funds to move programs forward."
That's true. RXII now has adequate funds to complete the crucial phase II of the revised hypertrophic trials and possibly of the keloid trials too. It also has adequate funds for advancing the optical work towards human clinical trials. It does not one have adequate funds to get much beyond that.
Geert and all investors know that and recognize that the game plan is, and always has been, to provide enough validation of sd-rxrna to obtain partners or licensees who bring enough up front money to get to and through the trials and to commercialization. If the current trials show good results the up front partnering/and or licensing money will flow in. If (counter to indications) current trials were not provide good validation of the efficacy of sd-rxrna the company would be in trouble anyway, with or without backup funds.
Thanks biotechpicklist. November 5 is even better.
You have been right all along. We are golden!
I think we will not get kicked off of nasdaq. I believe we will be well above the minimum price needed by Oct. which is the first deadline. Indeed, if we don't get the price up by then, we probably will have more to worry about than where our stock can be bought.
It is justifiable that we are below $.50, given the ceo bungling early, the Tang selloff, and Dirk the Dirtbag's bashing. It would not be so easy to excuse a sub-$1 price clear into Oct.
We both bought way too early. But that is water over the dam now. The huge recent volume shows that Rxi Pharma now known and getting some respect. The financial situation has been shored up, sd-rxrna is doing its thing (apparently) as it is supposed to, and Geert seems back on his game after a rocky and foolish start.
We'll be more than okay.
Why isn't rxii soaring by now? The volume in recent weeks has been very high, though tapering off the last few days. Even the tight fisted, historically non-supportive directors and non-Geert executives bought into the recent secondary. Tang is history. The cash position has been shored up considerably, albeit at the cost of dilution. Why the malaise now?
We longs who truly see the potential and recognize that the marketing errors of the past are history are impatient. What would be investors see is a stock that looked absolutely broken just weeks ago. They are waiting for clinical results. There appears to be no hurry to those on the outside considering coming in. They still are looking in the rear view mirror.
Geert's early bungling, along with Tang's dumping and Dirk's bashing, caused harm to this very small, start-up Pharma. It will take time for those wounds to heal. They will, nonetheless, heal and we will do very, very well. I have spelled out why in other posts.
I haven't forgotten about those warrants and rights to over allotment totaling 26 million shares. With the entire dilution from the recent secondary, plus options to executives and other insiders, plus current shares outstanding, there will br about 100 million fully diluted shares.
I believe this company has a buyout value of $2.5 billion with excellent interim rxi109 results plus optical IND plus Samcyprone moving tp phase III. That could all be accomplished with current funds (including secondary proceeds), plus a bit of upfront licensing money that Geert is now pursuing and will obtain. It will happen within five years and will yield $25 per share.
Remember, so far we have positive indications but nothing nailed down clinically. Good phase II three and six month results on the revised dosage and timing trials will nail it.
The dilution is not as bad as it now seems, if things work out as it looks like they will.
Tremendous, realistic potential. Poor market behavior in recent months largely a matter of unique, circumstances that are unlikely to recur:
1. Tang decided to dump his enormous stack of preferreds, which he got for practically nothing even he originally financed the company. He is now history.
2. Geert, the ceo, bungled a crucial early presentation by not explaining what to expect and, instead, over promising and then releasing one month pictures. That spooked the market.
3. Dirk the Dirtbag, a very influential analyst who has his own blog on rnai stocks, unmercifully bashed rxii. Dirk has since bought rxii and now praises it.
3. It seemed for awhile that rxii was destined to soon run out of money. The recent secondary, while requiring more dilution than longs wanted, obtained enough money to get beyond early, critical, clinical results.
The potential is astronomical, the early indications are that the lead technology works well and that the current tweaking will bear fruit. Also Samcyprone could and probably will be a real diamond in the rough.
In sum, the early days, now over, were a comedy of errors that pushed price down. That is behind us and the road ahead looks clear.
"The company itself intends to target only dermal and ocular maladies--which have a potential of many many millions of dollars in annual revenue..."
I meant, of course, to say that dermal and optical targets have a potential of many many billions [not millions] of dollars in annual revenue.
1. The hedge fund holder Tang, who received a massive amount of convertible preferred for almost nothing in return for his initial backing of the new company, has now finished his selloff of those preferreds, thereby lifting a huge price depressant.
2. Interim results on the revised trials for hypertrophic scars will be out soon. Company has indicated that it expects trials to show good results. Hypertrophic and keloid prescription therapeutics do not yet exist. The market is $1 billion+ in annual revenue.
3. Ocular anti-scarring IND to be filed very soon. Animal experiments as well as in vivo experiments are very promising. The annual revenue market for ocular anti-scarring drug [and sd-rxrna could possibly be used for ocular targets, including macular degeneration, other than scarring] is many millions of dollars.
4. Samcyprone, an improved version of an existing generic drug targeting warts, hair loss and even ocular melanoma is in phase II trials. The annual revenue market potential is well over $1 billion.
5. The inherited Opk patent estate provides a myriad of realistic applications for sd-rxrna.
6. The company itself intends to target only dermal and ocular maladies--which have a potential of many many millions of dollars in annual revenue; however, there are an almost unlimited number of non-dermal, non-ocular maladies which sd-rxrna could target. The partnering and licensing potential here is astronomical.
7. The company does have a long term money challenge; however, the recent secondary provides enough money to get well into further clinical confirmation. As that confirmation rolls in, non-dilutive deals will bring ample up front money to fully prove sd-rxrna and Samcyprone's value.
Very conservative share price target/buyout target five years from now: $25.