In my opinion, there will be a buying signal when and if either:
1. There is an up day with 1.5 million or more in volume, or...
2. A large and distinguished broker or analyst publishes a bullish report on rxii, or...
3. Rxii announces a partnership or licensing deal with anther pharma, or...
4. Rxii publishes a clinical results on Rxi-109 that contains many 3 mo. pictures and/or 6 mo. pictures that clearly show efficacy.
Low volume and lack of either prestigious sponsorship, a pharma deal or clear clinical results do not produce buying signals.
It is not my place to tell, or even advise, somebody else on his/her investing. For one thing, I do not know your financial circumstances or even why you still are positive about rxii after, as you told us, being down more than $200,000. All I can say is that this stock almost certainly will either skyrocket from here or crash. If you really believe the skyrocket scenario is the most likely--and you have no better place to put your money--go for it. If not, stay with what you have (or even sell some) and diversify with the funds you were contemplating putting here
P.S. Good luck. You deserve it.
Dirk Haussecker's blog? You've got to be kidding. He knows nothing and is almost always wrong. No wonder you are getting out of biotech investing. lol.
Okay grabbngo, I got the drift. Can't find it in the filings but I will just assume the following: Rxi now has exclusive rights to sd-rxrnai, which is patented and which Rxi Pharma acquired from Advanced RNA in return for a lot of Rxi shares. There are no royalty payments or milestone payments that Advanced RNA will be due as technology advances?
Essentially, all of the fruits of sd-rxrnai will go to Rxi Pharma and none to Advanced RNA (except that Advanced RNA is now a passive investor.) I wonder if that is your understanding grabbngo.
This would be very important information, if accurate. It would require a lot of due diligence rethinking.. How about you contacting Tamara and asking her if there is a marketing agreement with Adv. RNA? I have had no luck finding anything on that on the net.
rmsacc, the article says:
"We, in collaboration with RXi Pharmaceuticals, have developed a novel class of covalently modified RNAi compounds that do not require a delivery vehicle to enter cells and have improved pharmacology compared to traditional siRNAs. "
Who is the "we" that is being referred to? Can you give us a reference to the passage you provided?
Okay, rmsacc, I see your point. They have held onto about 1.2 million shares through the devastating collapse recently in the share price. They sold about half their shares well before the crash. That does show continued interest. They did not join Tang and sell during the collapse period.
Anyway, there are non-dilutive financing methods, notably licensing. Geert said he is looking for non-debt, non-dilutive financing.
The dilution thing is a red herring. Simply assume dilution to the fullest reasonable extent, say 100 million shares. Then ask what you think the market cap will probably be. That will tell you what your expected share price will be.
If biotechpicklist thinks Rxi will have a market cap of $4 billion in, say, six years, he would expect a per share price of $40.
IF everything were to go just right, I can see a market cap of $8 billion with 60 million shares (dilution at high prices=less new shares.) That would be $133 per share. I'm not forecasting that but it is quite within the realm of reason.
Look at how many shares Apple has outstanding, but look at its per share price. Dilution is simply a cost of growth and development. It's worth it when things work out.
You've got a point biotechpicklist. There are two ways to approach investing (more than that actually, but I'm just talking about two): The first is to do the best you can to uncover the fundamentals but be ready to bail if the market turns against you. The second is to ignore the market more or less and just focus and keep focussing like a laser on the fundamentals.
You like the second approach but Sabaiidi likes the first approach. Different strokes for different folks.
Advanced RNA sold a lot of shares a year or so ago. Except for one tiny purchase, they are not listed as having bought over the past year. I see NO evidence of new or even continuing interest by Advanced RNA in Rxi.
PS. The entire Advanced RNA holdings matter is murky. Even Advanced RNA is unclear as it is a private company with no required filings such as Rxi has.
My view is that almost any perspective could be correct at this point. Sd-rxrnai could be seen to be showing efficacy and just maybe needs a little tweaking. Rxi Pharma could easily be viewed as an overlooked diamond in the rough that will eventually revolutionize much of medicine.
Equally reasonable would be the view that Rxi Pharma is failing to show that it works and is just another in a long line of valiant but failed rnai companies. It could easily be thought that big money knows, and has even gotten the wink from Geert, that sd-rxrnai is not efficacious--and that is why big money and other pharmas are avoiding us like the plague.
Could be a rocket just waiting to take off or a failed but admirable attempt. There are considerations that tell both ways, imo.
P.S. I do believe that Rxi owes it to us long suffering longs to give us a bit more guidance. Maybe not. Maybe what we have been told is all there is to tell and the nobody yet knows if the pieces will fall into place.
From the 10Q dated 9/30/2014:
"Common stock underlying Series A and Series A-1 convertible preferred stock. 16,743,497"
Tamara indicated a month ago or so that there were about 2,000,000 more common released from the preferred and sold subsequent to the 9/30/2014 10Q. And there might be even a bit more by now.
The company has not announced anything about that. My interpretation of what has been said is that onset of treatment will be two weeks after surgery as the standard.. That seems to be a set decision. I don't know about adjustments to dosage. I assume that dosage adjustments will be in 1401 and 1402, not 1301 but I'm not sure.
We should have more 3 mo. results for 1301 and some 6 mo. results soon. Investors need at least those results to have any chance of stopping the bleeding.
1. The 3 mo. pics. of the two participants are pretty good. Encouraging.
2. Geert seems pretty optimistic, if guarded.
3. We know sd-rxrnai can penetrate cells and do things. That's a start towards confirmation of efficacy.
4. Geert has bought small numbers of shares repeatedly over last twelve months.
1. Tang has a huge number of shares locked in his preferreds and seems to want to sell them all.
2. There is no high power endorsement of sd-rxrnai, nor have other biotechs publicly shown interest.
3. No insiders but Geert are buying, nor are any institutions in a meaningful way.
4. Trading on the exchange as if it was headed for the trash heap.
Summary: A few promising things but nobody except Geert really has shown any faith. Very iffy it seems.
It's easy to get: Nobody wants to buy, so the price drops. Maybe they are afraid to buy into Tang's overhang of shares for sale, maybe they think the lead technology is a failure, maybe they think there are better and certainly more timely investments. I think it is a combination of all the above, with no strong counter motivating factors.
Fully diluted shares, including common underlying Tang's convertibles, is about 40 million shares. Less than 7 million are held by OPKO , Geert and Frost. I would think that the shares available for active trading are about 12 million. Tang has somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 million common left underlying his preferred. There are somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 million options held by insiders, most or all of which (I believe but am not sure) are currently out of the money.
When I do my crunching and forecasting, I just assume 50 million shares currently, with 20 or 30 million more over the next five or six years, if we are around that long.
A sale in the next few years would be split by about 50 million shares, I think. $250 million sale=$5 per share.