It's panic selling and herd mentality. This is a small cap company with a very small float. If some investor(s) want to get out because of a panic attack, they will knock the price way down.
Tomorrow (Friday) is dividend payment day and if you reinvest your dividends (I do) you will do so tomorrow at a very good price.
It might well be the case that Rxi will not get a really big deal--will not be bought out for $2 billion or $3 billion--until it validates sd-rxrnai a lot more. We will need some good, early p3 results for nasty scarring, some initial good clinical results for corneal scarring, an indication that we are getting ready to move to market with skin cosmetics, good p3 interim results on Samcyprone.
Let's say Rxi will need $15 million per year for to get from Feb. 2017 to Feb. 2020 (there is already enough money to get to Feb. 2017.) That's a total of $45 million needed. That is not huge in terms of biotech. It is less than 20% of what OPKO recently got for just one of its products.
rmsacc and others have talked about the need for big biotechs to but cutting edge technologies because they cannot afford to develop them from scratch. Well, here's a chance to get a toe hold for virtually peanuts.
Of course we are not through p3 tests yet, but neither are we totally without data and neither are we in need of much money to get way up the road.
Maybe a big pharma would see its way to front the $45 million for some sort of option deal at at a much higher price. This is potentially cutting edge technology and it has more than a little validation. Seems worth $45 million in seed money to me.
C'mon sabaidii, give it a rest. Every time rmsacc posts anything you berate and insult him. It is true that Rxi needs money. It is also true that there are positive and hopeful things going on. My view is that there is enough, more than enough, positive things--and big enough potential markets--to think Rxi will likely get the relatively small amount of cash it needs to operate until 2018 or more.
I might be wrong but I don't think my view is stupid or just dismissable out of hand--and my view is pretty much in line with rmsacc.
I absolutely agree with you that Rxi will succeed and even flourish. There is way too much good stuff going on for it not to do so. I do not, however, think that May is in anyway the drop dead date. If there is not a price move to $1+ by early May, we will be delisted from Nasdaq. So what? The Nasdaq listing has been of no help anyway.
The key is the interest of bigger pharma in either buying the company whole or making some deal(s) with Rxi. They will do that if they are convinced that the technology if good and that it will make money for them--and there will be such a conviction, I am sure. The last thing buyers or deal makers give a rat's behind about is where the stock is trading.
"MirImmune chose sd-RNAi because it is the only RNAi technology that doesen't negatively affect cell growth"
"Looks like Geert's 'well thought out plan' isn't working too well."
It does look that way and that might be the case. We don't really know, though, what might be going on. I do think there have been nibbles and I am still fairly optimistic that enough money to last until late 2018 or even 2019 will be found in the next several months.
Geert is in a very tough situation. He desperately wants to avoid giving too much away for too little but he needs money. I think he could get enough right now to operate for three or four years but he would just about have to give the store away to get it. He is holding out for a better deal, I think. I'm thinking he might just pull it off.
The delivery today was good. Geert does have a thick accent and will never be as easy for us to understand as a native speaker but it was a LOT better than earlier presentations. It is not only the science that will propel Rxi. It is the science along with an effective explanation of the science and why and how it will be commercially valuable. It takes marketing as well as just "science," imo. There are myriads of shuttered biotechs that had good science but couldn't get funding because nobody believed in the science or could see how to make money with it.
It was very clear and easy to understand. It contained more detail and explanation of the potential. It even spotlighted the quick progress that Mirlmmune is making with its license deal.
I don't know if this will bring in more deals, with or without upfront money, but it certainly was an impressive performance. Maybe Geert hit his stride just in the knick of time.
"The current share price is $0.28 - $0.31 so why would they want to pay more?"
They don't want to pay more and they might expect the company to fail altogether; however, if the market price does (surprisingly and contrary to what they now expect) go above the option strike price, they want to be able to exercise their options. They couldn't do that if so exercising resulted in their having more than 4.99%.
As to lack of insider buying, I agree that does speak volumes.
It's not fear of dilution that is keeping investors and insiders away, imo. All would-be-investors know that the company needs cash big time and will have to pay for that cash through dilution or out-llicensing away assets. What is keeping investors and insiders away is a belief either that the technology will not work or that the company will not be able to get the money it needs, or both, imo.
The chart is bad. The volume is minuscule. The current money situation is ominous--without more cash, the company would have to close up shop after this year. There are no clinical results beyond the three month time frame, which is way too little to draw any conclusions. Pretty grim, right?
Here's the flip side. The stock is currently priced to reflect the view that the company is roadkill. If there is just about ANY intrinsic value to the company from sd-rxrnai or Samcyprone, it would far exceed the current market cap. There are a number of months left to substantiate some claims about the technology and to convince some potential partner or buyer of its value. Grim? I guess. Worth the risk at this price? I think so.
Columbus took a chance, why not you?
"A short squeeze is just brief entertainment, whereas (real, fundamental) buying interest is how you make money."
A person can make real money with a short squeeze too. With the squeezed printing stock I mentioned above, I bought puts right at the money when the stock was $100. The puts cost me $6 each and I bought 2 contracts [=200 puts.] I sold the puts when the stock--which eventually went bankrupt--fell back to $5 p/s. My 200 puts brought me $95 each for a net of $89 each, or a total net of $17,800 on a purchase of two contracts which had cost me a total of $1200.
The above was made possible because of a squeeze. If RXII gets squeezed to $6, and maybe less, I will cash out and will not worry about "real, fundamental buying interest."
Northern Tier and its shareholders are being dragged down into the depths because of the buyout by WNR. That's a shame. Northern Tier was a great company that deserved a better fate.
First, thanks for the kind words.
Secondly, I'm not so sure I agree when you say, "Geert needs to pull off something pretty spectacular here in the next 60 days or so.' It would be nice if he did that but I don't think he has to. Rxi faces delisting in early May if it doesn't get the share price up, but let's face it, being listed on Nasdaq has not exactly supported the price.
In my opinion, the only thing that will save this company and bring real benefits to current shareholders is a deal with, or a buyout by, big pharma. And big pharma will make its evaluation on just about everything but where Rxi is listed. What we need is money to continue clinical work. That will come from somewhere (maybe even from Geert himself fronting it) if Geert is certain that sd-rxrnai has a great deal of intrinsic value. He has the contacts, the prestige, and the know how to get the relatively small amount of cash needed.
In any case, I am absolutely, positively certain that Geert could sell the company right now for $.50 or more per share. He wants a lot more and will resist selling for such a low price. My comfortable feeling here arises from knowing that at the current market price, my money is safe and will grow.
There have been no deals with bigger pharma so far. Rxi keeps attending partnering conferences, while Geert and the company keep saying how they are very interested in having other pharma cut deals. All of that would suggest that there really isn't yet any interest in deal making with Rxi.
On the other hand, Geert specifically said that there are other biotechs that have offered to collaborate in cosmeceutical research, presumably on targeting tyrocenase and collagenase. What's the truth?
Many different (and not wholly unrelated) things can be going on here:
1. Bigger pharma can be waiting for more clinical confirmation before jumping on board.
2. Rxi can be holding off as long as possible in order to get a juicier offer; after all, the more clinical confirmation, the more the company and its technology are worth, both as a buyout candidate and as a partner.
3. Bigger pharma could be interested in Rxi but holding off because of a belief that Rxi will run out of money and be available for virtually nothing.
4. There might simply be no interest in Rxi period.
3 and 4 above are unlikely. If some bigger pharma(s) really believe Rxi's technology is valuable, they would not just let it lie there with the hopes that it goes broke. The risk of losing out to a competitor is too great. And Geert told us that he has already been approached by bigger pharma to collaborate. For those reasons, 1 above is not really plausible either. At the current market price, I am sure that there are pharmaceuticals that would love to take over Rxi.
It just strikes me that the answer is that Rxi has not yet got an offer that Geert can accept. He believes Rxi is quite valuable and will be validated clinically more and more. He needs a relatively small amount of additional cash to keep going and will resist takeover as long as he can. It's a matter of time: Time to get more confirmation and, thereby, show the great value of Rxi versus time before the money runs out.
The above quotation is found in a very long (more than ten pages) research report from Edison Investment Research. The research report is extremely detailed and should be read by all. Edison says that the adjusted present value of Rxi, fully diluted to account for expected exercise of 13 million shares at $.445 per shares is $1.17. That evaluation does not include Samcyprone's potential use for metastasized melanoma, nor (very significantly) does the fully diluted, present evaluation of $1.17 include any consideration of the cosmeceutical potential for skin lightening and/or skin aging through attacks on Tyrocenese or Collagenese.
I urge you all to read the note. It can be found linked on a post on Stocktwits.