"The problem boils down to silencing the wrong gene and the patient dies. That is why I fear that trails and approval for the "home run" applications we investors dream about (think liver disease and cancer) may be difficult. However, scarring and eye disorders are a slightly easier path to approval, and that alone would bring us healthy returns. So while I dream of a PPS of $100+, I'd be happy with $30."
Rxii is hoping to target liver disease. I have heard nothing about cancer as a target. At any rate, scarring and eye disorders, along with licensing of the sd feature, would be a "home run." The potential of $100 per share is very realistic--even $200--with only scarring, eye and sd licensing. At a minimum scarring is worth $1 billion, eye $3.5 billion (think macular degeneration for example), and sd $3.5 billion (the major hurdle with rnai has been delivery.). We then have $200 per share even at 40 million shares outstanding, or a 300% dilution.
Risky? Yes. More than a ten bagger potential? Certainly.
The institutions who are looking to take $100,000,000 worth of new shares "at the market" will not let this rise until after their price is set. They will get the shares at no more than $3.50 (effectively $1.75 if warrants are attached on a one for one basis), it appears to me.
Maybe the company has set a minimum price for the secondary of, say $5, but it doesn't look like it. We'll just have to wait and see.
Well, I think we all know by now that Wolfson sold lots of rxii shares. Maybe that is a danger signal that current shareholders should note. I believe that all signs should be noted, positive and negative. However, his sales are not in themselves a smoking gun, they do not demonstrate that this company is a scam or is trash. It would be nice to know why he sold but but we don't.
As for the suite of patents that OPKO gave to RXII, we'll see. They might be worthless, "used," patents and they might not. In any case, I think that the sd feature, esp. if it works systemically and not just topically, could be the "holy grail." Maybe Frost did snooker RXII by getting rid of lots of worthless OPKO patents. Or not. I really don't think that is the thing to watch in any case.
Summary. There is negative and positive background stuff on this stock. We should get some confirmation or disconfirmation about this company's future within the next six to eight months. I'm optimistic but it wouldn't be the first time my optimism was crushed.
Novartis cut way back on its support of alny because of problems with delivery of rnai. And alny has fallen very far in the past few weeks. It has been suggested here and elsewhere that in the rnai field, rxii actually has more going for itself than does alny.
Now get this: Even after the drop, alny has a market cap of $3.5 BILLION dollars.
"Rip dates" should have been "updates." I hope the use of rip (as in rest in peace) was not a Freudian slip or, worse, an omen. lol.
The Fibonacci target for ibb is 164. It is now at 220. In other words, it appears to have quite a ways to fall. By contrast, the Fibonacci target for rxii was 4.28. It is now 3.43. In other words it has way more than retraced what it was expected to.
What to make of this? Well, maybe rxii has gone to far down and will now reverse. Maybe it just does not have the backing or staying power of biotechs in general. Or.... At any rate, I find it quite interesting that RXII's plunge was much steeper than IBB's, even though its rise had not been nearly as steep or consistent.
Well, that something I see in the technicals, for what it's worth.
I will hang in there for sure to see the crucial clinical p2 rip dates, which I hope we have by the end of the summer.
Allay, Fair enough. Now how about explaining just what the business plan is.
Does this company just buy shares in marijuana growers and/or distributors? I mean, what exactly is the business plan? It's hard to evaluate the bashers or pumpers without more clarity. The financials look weak but, on the other hand, the ceo seems to have most of the shares and he says he has never,sold any,
What is going on here?
Those test borings reveal gold. They sell the gold they reveal. Watch and Lear .
The shelf registration is for $100,000,000 dollars, not 100,000,000 shares. At &4 price, the entire shelf would result I a dilution of 25,000,000 shares.
Well, I don't care what you call them, there are a lot of big money outfits who will buy this stock w/ the current number of shares when and if it starts to show results. And they will continue to buy as the company floats more stock.
There will be a need for more shares. The shelf registration is for $100,000,000. At five cents per share that is another 25 million shares. Add the shares out already and you get in the neighborhood of 40 million shares. That's our minimum need, I think.
Having said that, if a fund or other institution believes this will be a three or four billion dollar company, they will take as big a position as they can get right now. Small float stocks (especially those slated to float substantially more in the not distant future) do get tute support and certainly get individual support.
It is a bit unusual to argue that a stock does not have enough liquidity to attract investors. Most longs seem terrified of dilution.
It's too early to tell for sure but it looks, tentatively, like we have decoupled from the biotech sector. rxii appears to have bottomed and started north; however, ibb and the rest of the biotechs are still weak and dropping.
Speaking of ALNY, this was on the business news wires today:
"Shares of Alnylam (ALNY) are lower in afternoon trading after a biotech focused newsletter reported that its partner, pharmaceutical giant Novartis (NVS), confirmed plans to "significantly reduce" its ribonucleic acid interface, or RNAi, research efforts. WHAT'S NEW: FierceBiotech reported earlier today that Novartis has decided to significantly cut back its once-ambitious RNAi research efforts, citing ongoing problems associated with delivering these therapies and the small number of relevant targets they could target. A total of 26 Novartis staffers were working full-time on the RNAi program full time, which grew out of a partnership with Alnylam, the report noted."
Very interesting and relevant for rxii.I think it might be very good for rxii but I'm not sure. What do you think?
Good question. I think they would and will. They just need more assurance of the efficacy of the sd system, I believe. I have always thought that that sd--and not scarring or even opthomology or renal--is the primary value of rxii.
We'll see. Today rxii did diverge from the general direction (viz. down) of the biotech sector. Who knows, maybe it was because of sd.