"The current share price is $0.28 - $0.31 so why would they want to pay more?"
They don't want to pay more and they might expect the company to fail altogether; however, if the market price does (surprisingly and contrary to what they now expect) go above the option strike price, they want to be able to exercise their options. They couldn't do that if so exercising resulted in their having more than 4.99%.
As to lack of insider buying, I agree that does speak volumes.
It's not fear of dilution that is keeping investors and insiders away, imo. All would-be-investors know that the company needs cash big time and will have to pay for that cash through dilution or out-llicensing away assets. What is keeping investors and insiders away is a belief either that the technology will not work or that the company will not be able to get the money it needs, or both, imo.
The chart is bad. The volume is minuscule. The current money situation is ominous--without more cash, the company would have to close up shop after this year. There are no clinical results beyond the three month time frame, which is way too little to draw any conclusions. Pretty grim, right?
Here's the flip side. The stock is currently priced to reflect the view that the company is roadkill. If there is just about ANY intrinsic value to the company from sd-rxrnai or Samcyprone, it would far exceed the current market cap. There are a number of months left to substantiate some claims about the technology and to convince some potential partner or buyer of its value. Grim? I guess. Worth the risk at this price? I think so.
Columbus took a chance, why not you?
"A short squeeze is just brief entertainment, whereas (real, fundamental) buying interest is how you make money."
A person can make real money with a short squeeze too. With the squeezed printing stock I mentioned above, I bought puts right at the money when the stock was $100. The puts cost me $6 each and I bought 2 contracts [=200 puts.] I sold the puts when the stock--which eventually went bankrupt--fell back to $5 p/s. My 200 puts brought me $95 each for a net of $89 each, or a total net of $17,800 on a purchase of two contracts which had cost me a total of $1200.
The above was made possible because of a squeeze. If RXII gets squeezed to $6, and maybe less, I will cash out and will not worry about "real, fundamental buying interest."
Northern Tier and its shareholders are being dragged down into the depths because of the buyout by WNR. That's a shame. Northern Tier was a great company that deserved a better fate.
First, thanks for the kind words.
Secondly, I'm not so sure I agree when you say, "Geert needs to pull off something pretty spectacular here in the next 60 days or so.' It would be nice if he did that but I don't think he has to. Rxi faces delisting in early May if it doesn't get the share price up, but let's face it, being listed on Nasdaq has not exactly supported the price.
In my opinion, the only thing that will save this company and bring real benefits to current shareholders is a deal with, or a buyout by, big pharma. And big pharma will make its evaluation on just about everything but where Rxi is listed. What we need is money to continue clinical work. That will come from somewhere (maybe even from Geert himself fronting it) if Geert is certain that sd-rxrnai has a great deal of intrinsic value. He has the contacts, the prestige, and the know how to get the relatively small amount of cash needed.
In any case, I am absolutely, positively certain that Geert could sell the company right now for $.50 or more per share. He wants a lot more and will resist selling for such a low price. My comfortable feeling here arises from knowing that at the current market price, my money is safe and will grow.
There have been no deals with bigger pharma so far. Rxi keeps attending partnering conferences, while Geert and the company keep saying how they are very interested in having other pharma cut deals. All of that would suggest that there really isn't yet any interest in deal making with Rxi.
On the other hand, Geert specifically said that there are other biotechs that have offered to collaborate in cosmeceutical research, presumably on targeting tyrocenase and collagenase. What's the truth?
Many different (and not wholly unrelated) things can be going on here:
1. Bigger pharma can be waiting for more clinical confirmation before jumping on board.
2. Rxi can be holding off as long as possible in order to get a juicier offer; after all, the more clinical confirmation, the more the company and its technology are worth, both as a buyout candidate and as a partner.
3. Bigger pharma could be interested in Rxi but holding off because of a belief that Rxi will run out of money and be available for virtually nothing.
4. There might simply be no interest in Rxi period.
3 and 4 above are unlikely. If some bigger pharma(s) really believe Rxi's technology is valuable, they would not just let it lie there with the hopes that it goes broke. The risk of losing out to a competitor is too great. And Geert told us that he has already been approached by bigger pharma to collaborate. For those reasons, 1 above is not really plausible either. At the current market price, I am sure that there are pharmaceuticals that would love to take over Rxi.
It just strikes me that the answer is that Rxi has not yet got an offer that Geert can accept. He believes Rxi is quite valuable and will be validated clinically more and more. He needs a relatively small amount of additional cash to keep going and will resist takeover as long as he can. It's a matter of time: Time to get more confirmation and, thereby, show the great value of Rxi versus time before the money runs out.
The above quotation is found in a very long (more than ten pages) research report from Edison Investment Research. The research report is extremely detailed and should be read by all. Edison says that the adjusted present value of Rxi, fully diluted to account for expected exercise of 13 million shares at $.445 per shares is $1.17. That evaluation does not include Samcyprone's potential use for metastasized melanoma, nor (very significantly) does the fully diluted, present evaluation of $1.17 include any consideration of the cosmeceutical potential for skin lightening and/or skin aging through attacks on Tyrocenese or Collagenese.
I urge you all to read the note. It can be found linked on a post on Stocktwits.
"...without any tempting results no companies will even begin to discuss deals"
Well, Geert has indicated that companies have already approached him about collaborating on the Tyrocenese and Collaganese targets for cosmeceuticals. But you are probably right about the anti-scarring targets.
What I keep thinking is that the current enterprise value [market cap less cash] is only $8 million. Even if the anti-scarring failed, there would be a lot more that $8 million worth in other targets. This will not go away for the want of a pittance in operating cash, in my opinion. Unless Geert is just about certain that sd-rxrnai doesn't work on any of the identifiable targets, he will see to it that there is enough funding to continue clinical research, even if he has to front the money himself.
Of course, sd-rxrnai could ultimately be shown to be absolutely worthless and then the company would fold up and die. We are a long way from that.
Let's assume (what I believe to be the truth) that Geert is a straight shooter who's reputation is important to him. He would not intentionally mislead or deceive the biotech industry or investors, let's assume.
He recently revised the company website to contain more information and to present things in a much more positive way. He said, about a month or so ago, that he believes the share price would rise. He continues to make presentations at conferences, where his words (albeit hard to understand vocally but clear and bullish when read in transcript, along with accompanying graphics) are very positive and even effusive.
All of those things suggest to me that there are no known problems with RXI's science or clinical progress. On the other hand, there is absolutely no buying interest [but, in fairness, neither are longs running for the exits.] Why is there no buying interest? I absolutely dunno.
It's complicated and confusing, at least for me. Go to the following thread on this board--"Key Rxi-109-1409 interim results soon. Hugely important"--and read the discussion starting with bi0technician and continuing with sabaidii and somebody else. Better that way than for me to try (no doubt unsuccessfully) to summarize it here.
Despite the facts that the clock is ticking on the Nasdaq listing, there is only enough cash to last until the end of the year, there will be no significant clinical trials reports for at least another six months, there is no news to report of deals, etc., Geert has given no indication whatsoever that there is anything amiss or that things are not going as he intended. That's good.
Keep in mind that there were seven years between the time he put Barrier Therapeutics together and the time he sold it to Stiefel. I am not suggesting that we will have to wait that long, just that it is way too early to panic or to give up on this company. Risky? Yes. Time for obituaries? No.
You are spot on to make reference to Geert's Barrier deal. He found financing of $48 million to put together Barrier and sold it to Stiflel seven years later for $128 million. Barrier's products targeted baby rash and psoriasis, In putting Barrier together, Geert dealt with some very big and well known pharmas, including J&J. He was patient, knew the market and the players, and used his extensive experience from J&J, where in his last years there he was responsible for spinning off the skin care products.
It is certainly way, way too early to write off Geert. The relatively small amount of money that Rxi clearly needs as it moves forward will be found and the market price (or buyout price) will soar--assuming, as seems to be the case, there is scientific and medical merit in its technology.
"You will get a chance to buy nymt at 1.50 when the credit market melts down for real by end of summer."
Here's my honest answer: My posts are not pumps, they are informative pieces of information that provide deep insights into the company. They also provide good reasons why this stock has a bright future. They are, in my opinion, well written and very helpful to those who want a clear and concise summary of the company.
I hope that clarifies things for you and I trust that in the future you will find my posts as intelligent and uplifting as you have in the past.
Way too much at stake, and way too much confirmation already, to let sd-rxrnai slip away for this small price. And that is not to mention the $10 million in cash, the OPKO estate, and Samcyprone to boot.
You can believe the bashers and the current lack of investor buying pressure and sell your shares and/or fail to buy here; or, you can use your common sense and realize that the risk/reward calculation is overwhelming in favor of the longs.
Geert did not just fall off the turnip truck--nor did all of the others involved with Rxi.
I cannot say why nobody is buying; however, given what you say about the OPKO patent estate alone, it is impossible for me to believe that there is risk at all in this stock at the current price levels.
I am up to my eyeballs in Rxi Pharma stock and am content to wait it out. There is no way in h... that this is worth and will fetch only only $20 million, especially since a sale of the company now for $20 million would include $10 million cash to the buyer.
This price is absurd and I do not believe absurdities can last indefinitely.