My post that opened this thread was mostly just to be a counterpoint to a post of mcgoofy that asked if the Griffin talks showed that that Geert had thrown in the towel. Mcgoofy is not a serious person and will just say anything.
I do believe that there is more than just casual interest in Rxi by some biotechs but I have no idea what will come of that. By the way, if there is more than just casual interest in Rxi, that alone would suggest that the current price is too low and that the market has already de-risked Rxi a lot.
Or are refusing to sell at this low price, low demand level. Or are just waiting for news.
Actually, the chart indicates that longs have absolutely not given up at this time, though would-be-longs (i.e. those who have not bought in) have not shown any interest.
Some of you find technical, chart, analysis interesting and informative. Others of you do not. Some of you think technical analysis might be useful for large, mature companies but not for mini, pre-commercial-product biotechs. Others of you do not. Well, whether or not you are a believer in technical analysis for companies such as Rxi, I noticed a very interesting formation.
A "head-and-shoulders" formation at or near the top of a run is considered one of the most bearish formations. It is formed by a line line to the left [the left shoulder] then a rather sudden sort of triangle or mound formation rising above the left shoulder [the head] then a line at the same price as the left shoulder line but going off to the right [the right shoulder.]
A "reverse head-and-shoulders" formation in just like the above except that the head is pointing downwards--the shoulders are above the head in the reverse formation. A reverse-head-and-shoulders formation is considered one of the most bullish formations. Go to stockcharts website and get a six month chart for RXII. You will see that since April 24, RXII has formed a very distinctive, deep headed, classic reverse-head-and-shoulders formation.
"...the downside (all the way to zero) is also a realistic outcome."
I disagree. It is not realistic to think Rxi will go to zero, or even much lower. sd-rxrna is not chopped liver, and there are people who know that including Geert. Also, Samcyprone, the out licenses, and the patents have considerable value. This will be taken over (or maybe taken private) long before it goes to zero.
You have a point about the cash on hand.
P.S. Lest one thinks the weak market action shows that this is worthless, my whole point is that it is just overlooked and misunderstood.
A corollary to the above is that the upside is far greater than the downside, and more likely to occur. With a market cap of $13 million and cash of $7.50 million, the likelihood that Rxi will go down much at all is small and the likelihood that it will go up an appreciable amount is quite high, it appears to me.
There are scores, probably even hundreds, of small, clinical stage biotechs on the market. I have been screening them lately and have been buying and selling them. My goal has been to get a 10% gain and get out. [I am a longer term holder with Rxi.] I have noticed a great similarity between them and Rxi:
1. They all target problems where there is a huge market. Often, but not always, an unmet need.
2. Almost all of them have cash that will last no more than a year. That is, they will almost all need money soon.
3. Most, but not all, are debt free.
4. The managements of all of them are enthusiastic and optimistic about the future.
5. Managements almost invariably say that bigger biotechs are looking to deal with them.
6. They almost all claim to have some very unique and valuable feature that will drive them forward and upward.
7. Every single one of them is facing critical, make or break, trial end points or "interim-end-points."
8. Almost without exception they are very, very low on the price chart.
10. Very recently, most of them have come off the bottom a little and appear to be rallying; whether or not that indicates a genuine trend reversal for them individually or for the sector remains to be seen. I must say, however, they almost all have charts that look quite promising at least in the short term.
All of the stocks that I have been trading share the above features with Rxi. So what makes Rxi so appealing? For me it is the extraordinarily low market valuation. All of the stocks I have been trading and screening have the above listed features, as does Rxi, but the ALL except Rxi have market caps of $100 million+.
I truly believe that Rxi is an anomaly in the sector. It has been ground down so low, for so long, that its actual market valuation is no longer even noticed. That, I think, is what sets it off from its peers--and what makes it an extraordinary buy.
It's the lowest ever, or at least for well over a year. It is 13k as of 4/29 which is the last report. That is only 1.4 days to cover.
Makes sense to me. It wouldn't make much sense to be short this stock at the present time..
Get off my case you stalking little pervert. Nobody asked your opinion of me, whoever you are and wherever you came from.
You have a foul mouth and are really creepy. Just go away.
Well, jayfield, you sure are creepy. You should get off my case you pervert.
Are you stalking me jayfield? You know that's a crime and could get you in trouble. It is creepy to follow people around jayfield. And as your post suggests you do, it is even creepier to search out corpses.
There is NOTHING that justifies this having so low ($13 million) market valuation. There is no fundamental reason for it to be selling 22% below its reverse split price. None.
Will it's market price go up to a reasonable valuation? Yes, for sure. When? Dunno but before the end of the year.
Yeah, I got it!
I expect another red thumb for this post too. Very discerning and serious red thumpers here. Not.
2 + 2 = 4.
Just seeing if I get a red thumb for saying something that is clearly true and non-controversial.
That's not a guarantee that a good deal will be made but it is the best we have ever heard on that score from management. This is still risky but less so than before last week's press release, at least that's how it looks to me.
"For a buyout to happen Rxi would have to be sold for at least $500 mil."
Okay with me but where is it written that it would have to be at least $500 mi.?
Make it plain that there is serious interest in this company by other biotech firms. That was not clear, at least not to me, prior to the press release.