All of the sudden volume exploded. This month there have been more than 17 million shares sold. Most of them must have been Tang--small retail, shorts, and institutional selling just cannot account for more than a few million of those sales. Who bought all those Tang shares and why?
The current market cap, even with all the Tang convertibles factored in, is only about $36 million. That's exceptionally small if sd-rxrnai works and is known to have big potential value. Maybe the buyer(s) of Tang's shares know something? Maybe the deal announced yesterday (Friday) reflects such knowledge.
The deal was made with very close associates and friends of Geert's. That could be read as weakness: Geert couldn't get a deal with a bigger bio. On the other hand, it could be a way of keeping Rxi in the family. After all, a provision of the deal is that Rxi gets an option to take a "double digit" stake in Mirrlmune.
Half full or half empty? I'm not certain but I am currently of the half full persuasion. That's why I bought back in big time yesterday, after having sold out mostly above 1.20 earlier in March.
Tang might be done, or almost done, selling now. There were more than 17 million shares traded in March. Tang had at most 14 million at the end of 2014 and he sold some in January and February. Short sales wouldn't have accounted for more than a million or so--and much of that shorting could have been Tang. I doubt that tutes (of which there weren't many here anyway) sold a million.
Keep in mind that Tang could retain 3 million+ shares locked in his preferred without having to worry about the 10% rule. 3 million is less than 10% of the current outstanding! I am sure.
In sum, the Tang menace is about gone or is actually gone. What will replace him? Hopefully more and better non-dilutive deals.
rmsacc I don't know if you are underestimating the savvy of Geert.
This board has been rife with comments that a biotech deal is needed to show that there is industry interest in sd-rxrnai. We got news of a deal today and now there is hand wringing about whether or not it is "real" or just a sign of desperation.
Well, it's a heck of a lot more than we had at this time yesterday.
My view: It shows that there is at least some interest in sd-rxrnai that goes beyond anti-scarring. I have thought for a long time now that the anti-scarring is not going well. I believe that anti-aging and ocular are far more promising targets. I think the biggest mistake was starting with anti-scarring. Now Rxi might have some chance of changing focus. Think about monkey eyes.
Maybe and maybe not. The deal announced just today is non-dilutive. Licensing deals in general are non dilutive. A cash deal for, say, 25% of all revenues from optical would not exactly be a licensing deal but neither would it be dilutive.
But those points are quibbles in a way. Whatever Rxi Pharma does to get money will involve giving something away: Stock, or distribution rights, or part of a future revenue stream, etc. The piper,will be paid one way or another. Can Rxi get the money it needs without giving away the store? Stay tuned.
There were about 14 million common underlying Tang's preferred as of the end of the year.
Some of that (not more than 1 million, I think) was from short sales. Some (maybe another million or so) was from discouraged and antsy longs. A lot of the rest was likely from Tang.
There is beginning to be light at the end of the Tang tunnel. At least so it seems to me. Keep in mind that with probably 30 million shares now outstanding (Tang's sells have boosted the outstanding count a lot), Tang could keep preferreds with 3 million plus underlying common without jeopardizing his ability to sell his preferreds--the old 10% rule.
A few more big 2 million+ volume days and Tang could be done. Or, he could be done now.
I doubt that the up front money is much. In fact, all that the press release says is that there is an annual licensing fee (along with, eventually, milepost payments and a single digit royalty.) Nevertheless this is good news:
1. It validates sd-rxrnai to the extent that a biotech wants it to develop.
2. Only the anti-cancer--not anti-scarring, anti-aging, or optical--was licensed out.
3. Mirrlmune (a private company about which we know nothing) could become the buyout target of a large biotech because of its licensing agreement with rxii. Should that happen, rxii has an option to buy into Mirrlmune in "double digits."
4. It is highly unlikely, because of this new deal, that rxii will go under in the near future.
5. If Geert can get a licensing deal for anti-cancer, he should be able to get way better deals for dermal and optical targets because those are more natural applications.
Not a complete silver bullet but looks a lot better than it did yesterday. And at the current price, it is a good buy, I think. Tang will be sold out sometime, maybe soon.
Medimmune is a division of Astrazenica. Mirrlmune, the company that is licensing sd-rxrnai for cancer targets, is a privately held company.
If you are right that the very recent selloff was Tang--and I don't entirely disagree, though I think there was also some disappointment with the recent press release--this should go up now. Unless Tang totally believes this news today is nothing, he would wait to sell more shares, or hold longer term. The news looks big to me:
1. Rxii now has some significant validation of sd-rxrnai through making a deal with a biotech.
2. Rxii licensed sd-rxrnai only for cancer targets, which Rxi never intended to pursue itself anyway.
3. Rxii can still pursue aging, scarring, optical and other non-cancer targets, or license those out to other bios.
4. Later, Rxi could buy into this licensee via its option, which is part of the deal.
In brief, it appears that Rxi still has life and possibly a bright future. What about the money needs? Well, if the news does strongly indicate that RXI's lead technology is efficacious, the money will come. Tang has already converted and sold a lot of his stake. He has way more than recouped his original investment. Maybe he will now hold to make real money?
This is the deal news investors have been waiting for. It is also a clever deal. Rxi-rnai can still be licensed for other, non-cancer, targets such as scarring, aging and ocular!!!
I was able to just buy 30,000 shares at .85 or less, after having sold out at an average of about 1.21. I will lose some of my tax write off but I don't care.
I just looked up ibb on the stockcharts website and the chart does NOT show a death cross (i.e. the 50 dma crossing under the 200dma.) It is the 50dma crossing under the 200dma that is normally meant by a "death cross." If you have something else in mind, please let us know.
If Maxim in fact did that, they likely violated security laws, and at the least risked destroying all their credibility and, thereby, their business.
I'm not at all convinced Maxim did that. Until it is verified, I think it is wrong to just assume such a thing.
How do you know Maxim went short before they haved their target? Are you sure they did?
I'm long and was before the halving and have bought more since.
For you newbies here, the Tang convertibles and whether they are Series A or A-1 does not really have anything to do with dilution. Any informed investor knows that the preferreds will all be converted, are all in the money now, and therefore should be included now in the fully diluted share count. When they are all converted there will be about 46 million shares outstanding. That's the figure to use when considering true market cap and prospective share price, not the weirdly understated 21 million provided by Yahoo and given in the balance sheet on the 10Q.
All today's announcement amounts to is:
There can be no more than 100 million shares outstanding. That includes all common underlying the Series A. If there are 10 million shares underlying the A, the company can have up to 90 million shares. The company could, however, have up to 100 million shares outstanding if all preferreds are Series A-1. That is, if Tang cannot get all his A-1 sold before the company dilutes to 100 million, he loses what he has. Tang is just giving the company a break here by saying, "I will risk not being able to convert the shares I transfer from A to A-1."
On the other hand, Tang will be very intent in converting and selling all his A-1 to avoid being stuck with worthless (unconvertible) preferred stock.
Remember, Tang cannot convert to own more than a total of 10% of the outstanding common. So he must convert, sell, convert, sell... That puts enormous and just about unrelenting pressure on the share price.
If you read the press release in full, you will find a rather bland, not real enthusiastic account of the anti-scarring efforts. There is no new data or information at all on hypertrophic and the keloid information is rather cryptic and tentative. The last part of the article, however, talks about Samcyprome and all the experts that are working on Samcyprone's active ingredient and how at least one is now advising rxii.
My theory, which I have suggested before and which that blogger guy (forget his name) asserted, is that rxii is disappointed in rx-109 to the point almost of despair and it hopes (as a sort of Hail Mary pass to save the company) Samcyprone will suffice as a lead substitute. I know that Geert denied this earlier but it is looking more and more accurate, imo.
By "ignore" do you mean "put your head in the sand?" Or do you mean, "pretend that there are only roses while the fundamentals are unclear or even negative and there is a rush to the exits?" Oh, I forgot lottawatta, you have me on ignore. Lmao.