If it suddenly gaps up, watch it very carefully and the minute the volume or price starts to stall, sell.
Gaps are almost always filled. I have ignored that elementary fact many times and have ridden the stock back down. It's a kind of sick feeling.
Its real market cap, if you count all the common underlying the derivatives, is about $134 million.
Why are you more bullish than ever? Here's why I'm not as bullish as I was:
1. It is less clear to me than it was that the product is unique and that it will be affordable. From what I gather, there are creams on the market, not to mention Pfizer's competitive product, that do pretty much what RXII does--and maybe a lot more cheaply.
2. So far all we know is that the product is safe and results in some apparently good chemical changes. We do not know if it reduces keloids.
3. A lot of very savvy people have heard about this product and they are not yet convinced, as the market activity shows.
This might be okay but I don't think it is a lead pipe cinch. I have sort of fallen out of love with it but am still in like with it--a little bit.
It is very low now. If you think the company has a viable product that will be in demand, you might want to hold on into next year. There could be year end tax loss selling. Most stocks did well in 2013. This is an exception and it has been a bummer for sure.
I have lost faith in the product. It looks mediocre at best to me but I could be wrong. Think I'll wait a while and try to catch a bounce.
I am thinking like you. Guess great minds think alike, lol.
It all depends on how bullish you are fundamentally and how soon you think a turnaround in price is likely to occur. In my experience, a sell in situations like this usually turns out okay. Not always, but usually.
1. Very expensive capex and opex. $1,000,000,000 to $2,000,000,000 capex, depending on tonnage anticipated. $150,000,000 per year to $275,000,000 per year in operating expenses. Companies will commit to such numbers only if they are very, very sure about the future demand.
2. The current and intermediate demand/supply situation is negative. There is a glut of supply that could well continue for a long time.
1. The current market price is very low. It obviously assumes that Passport will fail. There is no "fat" in the current market price.
2. There are billions of dollars in potash beneath Passport's land. With only $35,000,000 in debt, and an almost nil market cap, it might be worth it to somebody to just take possession and hold on, or for top insiders to buy us all out and just cover the $35,000,000 debt and wait for better days.
In sum, things currently look very bleak but the long term potential could be so great that waiting things out is worth it.
I am not selling for the rest of this year for sure and might never sell. It will depend on how things for the industry look as we move into 2014, what the company signals (the total lack of communication I take as a negative for now), and the interest shown by investors as indicated by price and volume into next year.
P.S. Prospect has a payment due to Karlsson tomorrow (the 10th.) If Prospects defaults and goes belly up--it might get yet another extension since Karlsson obviously doesn't want the land back--it will be interesting to see the reaction for Passport. Will Passport's price rise because it has lost a competitor or will it stay where it is or fall because investors will see a confirmation in Prospect's demise that Passport too is doomed?
Certainly, it is a robotic, computer, program that NITE, CANT and the others are using. Those market makers deal with hundreds, even thousands, of companies and cannot possibly follow them individually with human beings making bid/ask decisions.
That's why there is no "manipulation." The robots or computer programs will respond with a price increase when there is buying pressure from investors. Your blaming the market weakness on "manipulation" misses the point: Investors do not want this stock, at least not at the current time.
Why don't investors want this? Dunno. There has been a lot of publicity, including numerous presentations at investor conferences and medical conferences. You might have fallen in love with this stock, biotechpicklist, but nobody else seems to have done so.
There is no market, so to speak. Nobody wants to buy or sell this stock. The market makers simply have to put out a bid and ask. They naturally have a wide spread here since they don't know where buying will finally start or where selling will take place. They grab a piece of that spread since no outside investors want a piece of it. The market makers are not hurting us because we (in a general sense) are not telling them what we want--and we (generally speaking) really don't want anything.
Why is interest so low? Dunno.
I don't want to beat a dead horse but the mm's will make the market when there is no buying interest from the general public. Nobody wants to buy this right now and so the mm's make the market where they want to. In a way, the mm's are messengers: They are telling us that nobody wants this and, so, they will more or less play with it around $2.95 to $3.05 indefinitely.
You seem to want to shoot the messenger. It's not his fault that there is no interest in buying this stock.
Essentially correct. Note, however, that a market maker is obligated for only 100 shares. If a market maker "advertises" 10,000 shares at $1 and somebody puts in a bid at $1 for 10,000 shares the market maker is obligated to sell only 100 shares. The mm can engage in a kind of false advertising, as you suggest.
Having said that, if there is genuine investor offers at or even above a market maker offer, the price will go up, at least for a while. Market makers are obligated to buy and or sell "against the market" in order to mitigate against a crash or a buying panic. They don't always do that and almost never before they think the outside investors are over extended on either the up or downside.
In brief, mm's look at charts and so should you.
The thing is, if there were buying interest in this stock, the mm's couldn't and wouldn't try to hold it down. Market makers will sell and even short issues only when it is easy for them to make money doing so. That is, when nobody much wants to buy.
Why don't people want this stock? It is known fairly well by now because of all the conferences etc. It has attended.
I'm befuddled. I know that I'm supposed to just relax for three to five years.
If you believe that Passport will survive--that it will be able to either get a joint agreement or funding to go it alone--and that it will recover in price after this year-end swoon, now might be a very good time to buy. It has a market cap of less than $8,000,000 and a huge deposit of relatively easy to mine potash worth billions.
If you believe, however, that it is a terminally sick puppy, sell now.
It appears that the better the news gets, and the more insider Honig buys, the more frantic the troops are to bash this stock. Why? Who knows, maybe idiocy runs runs in packs.
"Importantly, a million ounces is likely just the beginning as the expanded resource remains open in all directions. I would not be surprised to see multiple millions of ounces come from this growing deposit. Why? The technical team has proven that they can find gold and only a small fraction of Pershing's property has been explored. Key to the Pershing Gold story is GROWTH. Evidence of a possible blockbuster mine continues to emerge with each new drill hole."
He's right you know. Let's see, 4,500,000 ounces times a net of $350 per ounce = $1,575,000 divided by 300,000,000 shares = $5.25 per share.
Works for me, how about you tall child and maximum lemon eater?
By the way, the lawyers are looking into suing because of a suspected excessive compensation. There is no apparent attempt to mislead, hide, or use insider information on the part of PGLC people. Just a view on the part of the lawyers that compensation was too high.
Is PGLC "struggling?" I thought it was in good shape cash wise, had increasing good news about gold in the ground, and was way under valued.
I think YOU are struggling.
My rule is to sell when a stock hits 8% below my purchase price. I believe in the adage "Cut your losses and let your profits run." Whenever I violate my 8% rule I end up selling much lower.
Falling in love with a stock and blaming poor market performance on market maker manipulation is a sure prescription for big problems.
Something doesn't compute here and I intend to get out, stand aside and wait until things become clear. There is NO buying pressure and that is a bad sign.
Prospect put out a press release yesterday (Tuesday) that suggested it had leads on funding. Today it had a little pop up. I hope it does get funding because that would be a good sign for Passport.
Prospect and Passport are in similar circumstances: Their land holdings are similar, they are right next to each other in the Holbrook Basin, and they would take about the same time to get into production. Prospect has a lot more debt but that would count even more for the viability of Passport, if Prospect got funding.
I kind of doubt that Prospect will get funding, at least not enough to keep it going very long. If, however, it does get funding, that would be a huge positive. There is no way that I can imagine that Prospect would be able to get financing but Passport couldn't. That is especially true since a financier would have $152,000,000 in debt senior to him with Prospect. A financier with Passport would have $40,000,000 in debt senior to him.
I very, very much am rooting for Prospect to get funding.
I have read both Peter's and your opinions about Pershing Gold. He is bullish and you are bearish. Both of you provide arguments, though his are more detailed and less smart alecky.
Sure there will be a reverse split. That's not in itself bad. Sure there is a possible suit coming from a smarmy law firm that makes its living suing companies, and most such threatened suits come to nothing.
We'll see what next year brings. I still trust Honig's big buys more than your wise guy negative remarks.