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CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Message Board

hengeern 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 5:20 PM Member since: Aug 19, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Tomorrow's Trading will tell the story

    by distantdrummer Aug 19, 2014 4:17 PM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 19, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    Good technical info, even though I'm a Fundamental Investor! RAD went from 6.55 to 6.10 in the Pre Market the day WAG tanked.... and only on 150K shares. As I said before, I think it RIPS right back above the 200 DMA with no problem! You and I discussed the AXE on the ASK a couple weeks ago. I thought he was Gone and we was! I still think it was a Forced Seller or somebody just selling a large position via an Algo. Since then, somebody has been accumulating. But it seems like they are trying to do it undetected. I wouldn't be surprised to see this slow drip accumulation end with an UPGRADE by Goldman Sachs or other Analyst........ and then the volume comes. And then we will find out who was accumulating. Regardless, I'll be surprised if the price isn't north of 7.00 before the Earnings Call in less than a month. I think it's back in the 8's after earnings. RAD is too cheap when compared to relative Price/Sales valuations vs WAG & CVS. I've got a fairly large position in RAD with an avg px of 6.07. I'm holding until after the earnings... then I'll revisit.

  • We are heading to test the 200 Day Moving Average @ 6.48. I don't think it will have trouble breaking through, because there wasn't much volume when it sliced through. It sliced through in the Pre-Market. With only 150,000 shares the Shorts were able to drop it from 6.55 to 6.10. Here comes 6.48.... whether you like it or not! I say it goes right on through like a Hot Knife through Butter

  • If RAD is bought out, the Buyout price will be based on a Price to Sales valuation..... accounting for the Debt levels and subtracting out the Cash. RAD is extremely undervalued vs the industry, and it likely worth a minimum of $11/share in a buyout. At that price, the buyout would likely be neutral to any suitor's earnings. So long as they are in same/similar retail margin biz.

    Market Cap + Debt - Cash / Forward Revs

    WAG: .77x
    CVS: .72x
    RAD: .43x

  • hengeern hengeern Aug 15, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    I agree, and it's why I got into this stock during the recent drop. It will have to be a low margin retail company. And if it doesn't happen, the stock is worth double digits on it's own within the next 12 mos. Nice action today with the market getting Kicked in the Face

  • hengeern by hengeern Aug 15, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    Now is the time for those holding Silver to PUKE UP their Shares and Physical Silver. This won't end until we hit single digits. And there are lines at Pawn Shops with Panic Sellers. Let the Vommit Commence

  • hengeern by hengeern Aug 13, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    I think RAD gets a buyout offer soon. The stock is just way too cheap when compared to the industry. By my calculation, RAD would have to trade at $11/share to trade on par with WAG and CVS. Here is my Price to Sales comparison:

    MKT CAP + DEBT - CASH / Forward REVS

    0.78 - WAG
    0.72 - CVS
    0.43 - RAD

    I think they get an offer in the double digits

  • Reply to

    Ignore button

    by hengeern Aug 7, 2014 5:56 PM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 8:57 PM Flag

    Yep, you are correct! I've traded in/out of the Brazilian Airlines a LOT the last 2 years. Both GOL & LFL..... not one single basher on either Brazilian airline .... both stocks act as erratic as this one, without any bashers in sight. I remember buying into DAL at $4.10/share.... the bashers were as bad as they are in RAD.... Captain Bobo Fly, etc...... stock raced to $18 and I got out.... too early. Captain Bobo Fly whatever his name is.... still bashing in the 30's

  • hengeern by hengeern Aug 7, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    I rarely buy individual stocks, but can't resist when stocks get trashed to ridiculously cheap levels. I always but the 1 or 2 board idiots on ignore whenever I go into a new stock. In the last 2 days, I'll bet I've had to put more idiots on ignore than all the others stocks I've ever owned....combined. It actually makes me feel more secure with my decision to invest when the bashers are running wild. And visa versa.... I usually like to sell half or whole positions when the bashers vanish, and the overconfident longs appear. This board is full of Idiots talking nonsense. It would be one thing if they were making valid negative points.... but its all just garbage. And they must be creating new id's every 30 minutes. LOL

  • Reply to

    Still looked like Shorts re-loading to me..

    by distantdrummer Aug 7, 2014 4:15 PM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    I watched it a little bit today.... most of the Volume was right out of the gate. From approx 10:15am on, the volume was anemic all day. Except for 3 large dumps right into the Bid. Who ever was..... or still is..... Selling, appears to do so without regard for getting the best price. It appears as if they are trying more to inflict damage to the share price, rather than get a good execution. I may be wrong, but I don't think the chart voodoo is going to keep it down. Everything was broken in the Pre-Mkt yesterday.... on a whopping 150,000 shares. It opened below the key levels. Again, seems to me somebody is going out of their way to try and drive the price down. The valuation has gotten to a point where I think somebody "just as big" is going to decide to drive the price up. Kind of seems like what happened today. The Bid Size was much larger than the Ask Size pretty much all day long, except for the last 45 minutes. Arm Wrestling match going on. Seems to me the Lid has been taken off the jar.... as soon as the fleas realize the top is no longer there, we should be able to jump back out of this hole.

  • Reply to

    Current Valuation compared to WAG & CVS

    by hengeern Aug 7, 2014 3:01 PM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    No, next year's estimates are Non-GAAP

  • P/E Multiple based on next year earnings and current price:
    WAG 16.03x
    CVS 15.01x
    RAD 12.79x

    Prices / Sales Comparison based on current price:
    Mkt Cap + LTD - CASH / Forward Revs

    WAG 0.76x
    CVS 0.70x
    RAD 0.42x

    If you price RAD at a relative P/E, it should be trading $7.05 to 7.53

    If you price RAD at relative Price/Sales, it should be trading $10.02 to 10.88

  • Reply to

    Be Careful - "They" may be reloading

    by distantdrummer Aug 7, 2014 11:20 AM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    The AXE appears to be GONE! The AXE was either a Forced Seller, or a Fund just selling off their position. Nonetheless, the AXE was an Algorithm Seller for the last 2 weeks.... sitting on the ASK like an 800 lb Gorilla. The Gorilla if off. If it was Short Sellers (which I doubt).... then they are quietly sitting on the BID. But not getting too aggressive to move the BID up. The Tide has turned in my opinion. Now its on to test that 6.44 Level. If it breaks 6.44, we move back to 7's rather quickly. I suspect RAD is above 7 "Before" Earnings in a few weeks. No Shorts are gonna want to stick around to witness a beat on the earnings and/or a guide higher

  • Reply to

    Einhorn buying back into RAD

    by wallstreet_pro Aug 7, 2014 10:40 AM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    This wouldn't surprise me at all. Down almost a third from he thought was fairly valued. Nor would it surprise me to see Icahn or Tepper stepping up to the plate down here

  • Reply to

    IR

    by laman250 Aug 7, 2014 9:42 AM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Thanks for this info.... was thinking of calling them myself. This confirms what I was thinking yesterday when I bought it. I just couldn't find any reason for the sell off. I stayed up late pouring over all the recent news from WAG, RAD and CVS. The end result is I couldn't find any smoking gun. In fact, I came away with the opposite info. RAD has locked in their contract with McKesson through 2019. And they only expect the first 2 quarters to impact margins, with the 2nd being the quarter we are currently in. After this quarter, they expect margins to "increase" along with cash flow. RAD stands to benefit from the 6 year contract with McKesson. I woke up early hoping for another panic swoosh down..... my only regret was not buying more yesterday. I got lucky and doubled my position at my average price yesterday 6.07. I'm going to double my current long position again if we get any more panic sellers. Otherwise, I'm holding for the next year or two.

  • Reply to

    Today Forbes Article on RAD...

    by smokeymullet Aug 7, 2014 6:53 AM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Google "Rite-Aid Forbes" ..... with the dash. Then select search tools, and past 24 hours.

  • Reply to

    RAD-ical thoughts

    by leojbourne Aug 7, 2014 1:00 AM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 7, 2014 6:54 AM Flag

    RAD's next Rollover of Debt isn't until 2020. At which point their debt won't be as large as it is today. They have already stated they plan to use cash flow to pay off some maturities before then. RAD's forward P/E on Calendar Year 2015 is lower than both WAG and CVS. Insider information about financial anomalies? LOL. Maybe you should have done your own DD before you Shorted RAD yesterday. I'll take the opposite side. I went Long yesterday

  • Reply to

    WHY DOWN TODAY?????

    by jkdoctor Aug 6, 2014 4:44 PM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 6, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    Vince, OLD News! RAD already announced a 50 Mill reduction in EBITDA due to a reduction in reimbursement rates. So it couldn't have been that.... besides, CVS held up. My theory that somebody was a FORCED Seller is the only thing that makes sense to me. We have a Forced Seller, the taking out of Stop Losses and your typical Nervous Nellies jumping in the water. I went LONG today.... avg px of 6.07. Not looking to trade... plan to hold for a year or more. Forward P/E is only 12.7x. It may go lower, but its too darn cheap now to own here

  • Reply to

    WHY DOWN TODAY?????

    by jkdoctor Aug 6, 2014 4:44 PM
    hengeern hengeern Aug 6, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Nobody knows for sure. There was no news that moved it. Fundamentals are still intact, and they just announced same store sales that were better than expected. Some blame WAG, but I don't buy that.... because CVS would have gone down too... if WAG was the cause. The only think I can think, is maybe some Hedgie was heavy on margin in WAG and RAD.... got blown out of WAG and had to sell RAD to avoid a call. It was obvious an Algo Seller in the market all day.... so I suspect it was a "Forced" seller. No New anywhere

  • Today's Mkt Cap + Debt - Cash / Revs

    WAG: 75.4%
    CVS: 71.0%
    RAD: 42.9%

    RAD trading at 71% Discount to WAG & CVS..... Buyout Candidate here.... too cheap

  • As of current prices, the Forward P/E for FY 2015
    WAG - 15.8x
    CVS - 15.3x
    RAD - 13.1x

IGR
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