You have said so many things, some bearish, some bullish. It's not too shocking that out of hundreds of posts you could recover something that turned out accurate. If anyone wanted to go to the trouble, I'm sure there are many past posts that you might find embarrassing..
"Soon" is a relative term. Since your audience is mostly interested in AMBA over the next 30-60 days, I think you chose the wrong term. "Eventually" might be more suitable.
During RAD struggles I think Walgreen & CVS both were content to take market share as opposed to buying RAD outright. Now that RAD shows some strength maybe WBA will be interested. Pessina said he is looking to acquire, but no hint what he's looking at. Margins have gotten so thin in traditional pharmacy, there must be more lucrative opportunities, but a lot of companies get hurt when they stray too far from their core competencies.
I have owned Walgreens for about 30 years, and CVS off and on for 25 years. They have both proven to be valuable holdings. I am currently out of CVS. Nothing against CVS, but I would be happier if they made a serious move internationally. The investment in Brazil is small and the currency problems there may be giving management a bad taste for international expansion.
wally, it wasn't long ago you stated $40 would be a decent entry point for this stock. Now you say it's going to $22. So, where you're from it's considered smart to buy at $40 and ride down to $22? LOL! Let's just admit you simply like to say things without regard for truth or logic. No one should heed a warning or advice from you. Sooner or later AMBA's excellent track record will provide support for the stock price. It will be soon, but it may seem like a long time to those who keep reading your drivel.
I agree with much of your post, but I see no parallel to Rite-Aid. There is no Grass family to bring down WBA. It's true there are no signs of innovation in the past few years (clearly predating and unrelated to the Alliance Boots deal). Cost cutting, primarily at the expense of their employees also predated the purchase of Boots. Mr. Pessina, as the largest stockholder of WBA and the current CEO is certainly in a position of power. As I have previously pointed out, it is unclear that he was particularly successful at Boots Alliance. He deserves though, a chance to show what he can do for the company and I don't blame him for bringing on board some of his previous executive staff. The Walgreen name is about all that remains from the original company and the years of pharmacist driven prosperity are gone. Pharmacy and pharmacists have a very unclear future in USA healthcare. Many of the bright minds who chose pharmacy as a career over the past couple of decades have some soul searching to do.
With the growth potential I'm OK with a 25 p/e. The problem is AMBA is a semi-conductor industry stock, so apparently some expect them to be valued like Intel or Qualcomm regardless of the growth rate.
You seem to imply that you are not short just for the profit, but enjoy the idea of inflicting pain on others. They make a pill which can help that condition. I suggest you see a psychiatrist, then bring your prescription to me. I'll give you a "special" price.
blah, blah, blah. Citron is having no affect on the company's growth. The high seventies will prove to be a great entry point. If there is an even better entry point over the next few weeks so be it. When the shorts move on, whether it be today or next month or next year, the stock price will reflect the true value of the company.
I don't really see the slower growth you speak of. As you stated the prior quarter benefitted from an early product launch and subsequently last quarter results suffered for the same reason. Even though last quarter suffered from a lack of new product launch, it was a stellar quarter reporting $0.88 eps when just 4 months ago the estimate for that quarter was $0.55 eps. Investors, unaware of the early launch, bid up the share price a bit too high at $128. I think it's way too soon to call it slowing growth. You may be right about competition existing and increasing for AMBA, but at the same time the industry is exploding with growth. I would not expect AMBA to be unchallenged in a $10 billion industry.
Wow! I've gotten used to nonsense in your posts. This one actually makes sense and you sound intelligently analytical. I'm blown away.
Zack's can successfully demonstrate their report is not wrong. First, understand they are working with GAAP numbers not non-GAAP like everyone else. The GAAP estimate based on number of basic shares was $0.73. Zack's says the reported GAAP income was $0.72. Other reports showed GAAP income of $0.73. The divergence creating this penny difference could easily be explained by the number of basic shares used in the calculation which can vary depending on time frame. I think Zack's purposely reported the 1 cent miss to make their earlier prediction of a likely miss appear brilliant. To me, the point is that AMBA reported great earnings which more than doubled last years performance. A company like Zack's with an agenda, or Citron with an agenda will use will use hair-splitting discrepancies to back their thesis. Serious long term investors can ignore this, while traders certainly cannot.
That's a pleasant thought, but Citron can be quite persistent. I've watched them operate before. They have a large following and can influence the market remarkably. If we get super guidance and some serious increases in analysts estimates, it's just possible they will find easier picking elsewhere. I plan to ride it out for as long as it takes for the long contingent to reassert itself. Until then, trading is pretty interesting.