With the growth potential I'm OK with a 25 p/e. The problem is AMBA is a semi-conductor industry stock, so apparently some expect them to be valued like Intel or Qualcomm regardless of the growth rate.
You seem to imply that you are not short just for the profit, but enjoy the idea of inflicting pain on others. They make a pill which can help that condition. I suggest you see a psychiatrist, then bring your prescription to me. I'll give you a "special" price.
blah, blah, blah. Citron is having no affect on the company's growth. The high seventies will prove to be a great entry point. If there is an even better entry point over the next few weeks so be it. When the shorts move on, whether it be today or next month or next year, the stock price will reflect the true value of the company.
I don't really see the slower growth you speak of. As you stated the prior quarter benefitted from an early product launch and subsequently last quarter results suffered for the same reason. Even though last quarter suffered from a lack of new product launch, it was a stellar quarter reporting $0.88 eps when just 4 months ago the estimate for that quarter was $0.55 eps. Investors, unaware of the early launch, bid up the share price a bit too high at $128. I think it's way too soon to call it slowing growth. You may be right about competition existing and increasing for AMBA, but at the same time the industry is exploding with growth. I would not expect AMBA to be unchallenged in a $10 billion industry.
Wow! I've gotten used to nonsense in your posts. This one actually makes sense and you sound intelligently analytical. I'm blown away.
Zack's can successfully demonstrate their report is not wrong. First, understand they are working with GAAP numbers not non-GAAP like everyone else. The GAAP estimate based on number of basic shares was $0.73. Zack's says the reported GAAP income was $0.72. Other reports showed GAAP income of $0.73. The divergence creating this penny difference could easily be explained by the number of basic shares used in the calculation which can vary depending on time frame. I think Zack's purposely reported the 1 cent miss to make their earlier prediction of a likely miss appear brilliant. To me, the point is that AMBA reported great earnings which more than doubled last years performance. A company like Zack's with an agenda, or Citron with an agenda will use will use hair-splitting discrepancies to back their thesis. Serious long term investors can ignore this, while traders certainly cannot.
That's a pleasant thought, but Citron can be quite persistent. I've watched them operate before. They have a large following and can influence the market remarkably. If we get super guidance and some serious increases in analysts estimates, it's just possible they will find easier picking elsewhere. I plan to ride it out for as long as it takes for the long contingent to reassert itself. Until then, trading is pretty interesting.
Taking into account all of your remarks on this board over the past couple of weeks, yeah, you are bashing.
That's incorrect. In earnings call company clearly stated comps for past quarter to be mid single digits. The previous quarter was 11%. That and the disappointing (to some) guidance for next quarter were reasons given for weak share price performance since earnings. I think AEO will perform well over the next year, but the best time to own the stock was the past 12 months.
Citron thrives by creating fear and doubt. They steal $'s from naive investors. No, they are not my friends. I have a little more pride than that. If making money, while not caring who you take it from or how you take it, is the most important thing to you then you have befriended the right people. I'm not accusing them of anything illegal or immoral (since morality is different for everyone). I just don't like them.
bond1960, individual testimony and anecdotal evidence is no way to measure business success. A few years back Costco was outperforming Walgreens (6-10 years ago). If you look at a 1, 2 or 5 year chart you will see that Walgreen stock has outperformed Costco stock. If you own Costco and like the company that's just fine, but you must feel very insecure since you find it necessary to bash the competition. Deep discounting had it's day, but in my opinion is not the future of pharmacy retail.
hanzz $140 is a reasonable price for AMBA if Citron is done waging war. I think Citron is probably not done though so I'm not betting the house. I expect them to attack again at some point post-earnings. The result for the quarter is probably less important to us than the forward guidance. Hoping for the best.
Kiss, your observations are accurate and relevant, but I agree with Marty that valuation has a lot to do with how much growth one expects from the company over the next several quarters. The stock ran up to $128 post earnings announcement that exceeded analyst estimates by 20%. Within 24 hours of earnings, analysts raised earnings estimates for the current quarter by 47% and the next quarter by 43%, for the current year by 36% and next year by 27%. Also company and analyst remarks brought out the tremendous growth opportunities afforded by drones, security cameras, police body cameras, automotive cameras etc.. It becomes incumbent on each investor to decide for himself what is a reasonable growth expectation for the company and what is a reasonable price to pay for the stock. Clearly Citron has their opinion and one can understand where they are coming from, but that doesn't make them right. I think it is more Citron's publicized opinions and their shorting activity with plenty of hedge fund support that has slowed appreciation of the stock price. It would not be difficult to offer up an argument for 35% annual growth over the next 5 years and that could justify a considerably higher valuation than we are experiencing.