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AmerisourceBergen Corporation Message Board

henleywm 98 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Jan 10, 2013
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  • henleywm henleywm Nov 1, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    cyber, I realize the PEG of 0.40 is what's published by yahoo, however it's a ridiculous number. That PEG is based on growth of 70% annually for the next 5 years. Since they are only estimated to grow earnings 44% in 2015, why would they think we can average 76% for the next 4 years for a 5 year average of 70%? That is absurdly optimistic. It's based on bad numbers, or some of the anyalysts have gone crazy.

  • Reply to

    Kandi car acceptance

    by frankblatterman Nov 3, 2014 5:59 AM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 3, 2014 6:23 AM Flag

    That has been a question lurking in the back of my mind. Does an average citizen in Hangzhou even know the KNDI name? Thanks for sharing the info.

  • Reply to

    Walgreens Venture fund Vice President resigns

    by robbsbeach Oct 25, 2014 12:23 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 3, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    Certainly API is a dilemma for traditional retail pharmacy. How much did that have to do with the Boots acquisition? Little, imho. As told by WAG, Boots was seen as the best route to international expansion. It brings talent and experience on board. It was worth the price premium, as will be proven out over time. Walmart has toyed with different store models to compete with WAG and CVS, but the reverse (WAG and CVS building superstores) is too ludicrous for consideration. International expansion will be important to company growth. Likewise, WAG will continue to experiment with new products and services for their existing model. I would hate to be RAD.

  • henleywm henleywm Nov 4, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    the 70% annual growth for 5 years is also average of analysts numbers. Do the math. If you believe YY could have a market cap of $70 billion in 2019, then in your judgment 70% per year for 5 years is possible. I think you're a dreamer. That 70% becomes extremely difficult as the company grows.

  • Reply to

    Walgreens Venture fund Vice President resigns

    by robbsbeach Oct 25, 2014 12:23 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 4, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Margin pressures are substantial. They are not permanent, and everything has a bottom. The political and business climates are dynamic. You're really in a doom and gloom funk. Let the sun shine in. As for Walgreens, they believe other parts of the world offer opportunities to expand margins, not contract. Leaving the U.S., won't fix the U.S., just make it less important.

  • henleywm henleywm Nov 5, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    It's not that I need sold on YY. I'm long since July 2013 @$35. I just like to keep my feet on the ground. A 70-80% growth year is very doable. To look for 70% growth sustained for 5 years is breathing some rarified air. The only point of my original comment was to point out to cyber that the PEG of 0.4 was not a useful number for comparing YY to other companies. I stand by that.

  • Reply to

    Walgreens Venture fund Vice President resigns

    by robbsbeach Oct 25, 2014 12:23 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 5, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    You're not going to let them off the hook for the sushi thing are you? I also found that a bit odd. Perhaps they had some nostalgic thoughts of soda fountains and thought they could replace with Sushi bars. I'd like to have a good old chocolate phosphate and a Superman comic book.

  • henleywm henleywm Nov 5, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    I have this picture of a big, fat Gary stripping down and chasing traders around the floor with a baseball bat (or something), warning them to let KNDI shares drop "or else". A very effective strategy.

  • Reply to

    wag is ok but.....

    by fastmoney_2011 Nov 6, 2014 1:16 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 6, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    CVS has been a very steady performer. I've been long since '98 when they bought out Arbor Drugs, my former employer. I have actually been long both CVS and WAG since then and they have been stellar performers. Truth is though, WAG has easily outperformed CVS over that period, although CVS has been the outperformer over the past 10 years. PCS was a great acquisition for CVS, much to my surprise. WAG has outperformed for the past 2 years, and has a clear head start over CVS in expanding internationally. International expansion has been a mixed bag for retailers, but I believe WAG is well positioned at the right time. CVS does not seem to have a clear strategy for expanding outside the states. It may be they feel that's not the best route for growth. They have been spot on with most of their growth strategies. Time will tell.

  • Reply to

    Wag offers 10 billion in bonds/debt

    by robbsbeach Nov 6, 2014 8:17 AM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 6, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    Martin Grass was an idiot. He singlehandedly destroyed a very good company. There is no one in a position of power at WAG that I would compare to him.

  • Reply to

    SEC requested to investigate Walgreens

    by robbsbeach Nov 6, 2014 1:51 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 6, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    Anyone can request an investigation. The SEC always refuses comments. It means nothing. Maybe, when the investigation fails to materialize, you can file suit against the SEC. Anyone can do that also.

  • Reply to

    wag is ok but.....

    by fastmoney_2011 Nov 6, 2014 1:16 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 6, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    I don't disagree. I referred to Caremark as PCS. Actually PCS was acquired by Caremark and Caremark was acquired by CVS. I thought acquiring PCS/Caremark was a mistake for CVS. Rite-Aid bought PCS in 2003 and sold it a year later for a $500 million loss. It was part of Rite-Aid's undoing. I did not see the future as well as Tom Ryan did and his acquisition of the pharmacy benefits manager turned out to be among his greatest achievements while at the helm of CVS. I still don't know if Ryan was brilliant or lucky during his reign at CVS but almost every move he made worked out well. He had a Midas touch. I also agree that international acquisition is in the cards for CVS. Walgreens is also in Puerto Rico, though not Ireland. With the Boots acquisition WAG will have more than 2200 drug stores and several distribution centers in Europe. Most of the drug stores are in Great Britain, but they will have a strong presence in Italy also. They will also have operations in Switzerland, Germany and Turkey and have part-ownership in a pharmaceutical distributor in China. There is probably more. It's been a year since I read-up on the Boots operations. Walgreens also owns a large stake in ABC, the drug wholesaler, who now supplies pharmaceuticals to Walgreens and Boots. I believe their position in ABC to be 7% now with options to acquire another 16% at a huge discount to market over the next two years. In the areas of international and vertical expansion WAG has a huge lead over CVS. I don't really have a strong opinion about which company will be the best investment for the next 10-20 years but they are both powerhouses and I am happy to own both. I find the constant bickering between shareholders of these two great companies to be mildly amusing at times, but ultimately quite absurd. It's a huge rivalry, and to think, neither sports a football team.

  • Reply to

    Kandi is a scam

    by sailbad2011 Nov 6, 2014 3:41 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 6, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    a scam is a swindle. Who has been swindled? To call a company a scam you need to show that they defrauded (swindled) someone out of their money. Who would that be? I've made a lot of money investing in KNDI. Where's the swindle? Did they swindle you?

  • henleywm henleywm Nov 8, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    Mr. Hu came to Atlanta in September 2012. There seemed to be little impact on the stock. It could be different this time as the company is enjoying success in marketing EV's.

  • Reply to

    YY will make us rich.

    by hawkster654 Nov 2, 2014 5:31 PM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 9, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    Rapidly growing Chinese companies are not trusted by a segment of the American investing public. It is difficult, and sometimes impossible to verify the accuracy of reported revenues and earnings of some of these companies. Quite a number of highly popular U.S. listed Chinese growth companies have been determined fraudulent and delisted. Since the number of investors willing to take a risk on Chinese growth companies is less than those willing to take a risk on American growth companies, there is less demand for these stocks and therefore lower valuations. I am long YY and two other U.S. listed Chinese companies. I believe there to be more risk in those holdings than other holdings in my portfolio. Thus, I monitor these stocks daily for signs of "irrational exuberace" or #$%$ in the armor". I have personally owned two Chinese companies that were delisted while I still held some shares. Overall, I made money on both of those investments, but it is still alarming to learn we have no protection or recourse. The SEC won't help you. Neither will the lawyers who advertise class action suits. In my opinion, it is entirely appropriate that Chinese companies listed in the U.S. often enjoy lower p/e mutiples than their American peers.

  • Reply to

    GAAP Net Income $13.53 increase 274.3%

    by chewy6217 Nov 10, 2014 9:27 AM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 10, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    I think you mean $13.53 million. I hope you realize that more than half of that number is just a reflection in the reduced stock value. If the share price appreciates like you keep suggesting we could report a GAAP loss next quarter due to the high value assigned to derivatives. The important number for investors is non-GAAP income which was a little over $5 million. That's a good number. But don't tout the GAAP number unless you want to refer to GAAP in the future when it no longer embellishes the truth.

  • Reply to

    sell the news - consolidation coming

    by protraderinv Nov 10, 2014 9:49 AM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 10, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    We don't nee a consolidation. We spent the whole last quarter consolidating. But you're right, lots of traders selling the news and that's very good for anyone wanting to add to their position under $20. Better add soon.

  • Reply to

    This looks pathetic. Not moving at all. Why?

    by bigdogbonz Nov 10, 2014 9:39 AM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 10, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    It ran up almost every day for two weeks. Buy the rumor, sell the news. It's an old story. Check again in a few weeks.

  • Reply to

    Crash and burn, this is caspitulation!

    by bigdogbonz Nov 10, 2014 9:48 AM
    henleywm henleywm Nov 10, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Caspitulation? Does that mean you're drooling on your bib again?

  • henleywm henleywm Nov 10, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    Why don't you explain that to holders of AMZN. Talk about a company thriving on low margins! Actually as previously pointed out on this board, low margins are a common characteristic of young growth companies. You do understand why the margins are low don't you?

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