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Goldfield Corp. Message Board

heptikus 136 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Oct 27, 2006
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  • Not at all surprising you don't see it yet. I'm not emotionally attached to this stock and the pattern is pretty clear, in addition to the fundamental problems. Good luck!

  • The imposter, or jealous clone, as I like to call it.

  • Reply to

    Support

    by heptikus 9 hours ago

    Yes. Thought it would not confirm above $1.95. That was former resistance due to the daily and weekly charts. $1.97 is now similar support. I think it will be interesting to watch how quickly it will drop below this support, and what will facilitate it, if anything. Fundamentals have not yet turned for GV. 3% net profit is not investable for most who are open to invest in a micro like GV. Good luck!

  • Will be interesting to see how long before it breaks through support at 200 and 50. 200 daily and 50 weekly are currently both at $1.97. Should be strong support, but the walk down has started again and fundamentally speaking, GV is still quite weak. My past perspective remains intact. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    Accumulation Mode....

    by freeze.dried_mule Aug 22, 2014 3:58 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 22, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    If GV gets follow through volume next week and holds or goes up, then I believe TA will be a positive story going forward. There are still some serious fundamental issues, but short term GV may continue this run. Congrats to longs! I bet the wrong side in the $1.50's this time. Still no position. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    Major Breakout Soon.

    by pfsgreen Aug 21, 2014 7:02 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 21, 2014 9:31 PM Flag

    Also the 50 on the weekly and the upper downtrend line on the weekly. It'll take more than the recent report to get through this resistance. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    Another Run at 2 Bucks

    by muskiebear63 Aug 21, 2014 9:34 AM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 21, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    Seems like a "gin it up and sell it down" strategy given the action. Someone wants out and is simply manipulating. Not surprising at this point. The walk down should start soon. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    A recent heptikus quote:

    by thick_patch_of_pubes Aug 19, 2014 8:47 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 20, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    LMAO!! That's hilarious!!

  • heptikus by heptikus Aug 19, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    GV may see another couple of days up, but the march down will begin soon. There's been a lot of unloading recently. Congrats to those who took profits. Stick around for another great buying opp. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    Top Line - Bottom Line

    by heptikus Aug 15, 2014 12:46 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 17, 2014 11:03 PM Flag

    There are two bright spots in the Q2 report. Unfortunately, they are overshadowed by problems that both take away the positive and muddy the water.

    1. Revs related to electrical construction - GV is ahead ytd by $1.8M in this category. That's good, especially due to the huge STEC project they were winding down last year. So this compares well. However, their ytd 2014 expenses outstrip the positive on the revs. They had similar rev and expenses challenges last year, so the storms in 1Q and the special expenses for 2Q are not valid excuses for this poor performance. Their ytd expense ratio is evidence they are taking on ever decreasing margin work. This will create future problems if they can't turn it around with higher margin work.

    2. Backlog - GV reports a huge uptick in backlog work. That looks good on paper, but they also broadened the definition of what backlog can be. This makes it difficult if not impossible to determine exactly how much real growth has actually occurred in this category. I'm being generous and assuming a small gain in backlog.

    I really don't know what is happening inside this company and what would cause management to decide to so generously broaden the definition of backlog. Neither reporting method seems to have a material impact on GV's business. My current assumption is that they needed some type of positive for shareholders and this was the only gift they could make available at the time. That's cynical, but it seems to be the most logical conclusion. Good luck!

  • heptikus heptikus Aug 17, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    No real surprise. Most stocks are up for the year. GV is down. Money managers are beginning to think about their annual report and shifting from higher risk losers to winners is fairly common this time of year. It doesn't favor GV pps for the balance of the year. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    EPA Inquiry update

    by heptikus Aug 15, 2014 12:31 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 16, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    Go0gle "sierra zinc mine" and click on a pdf "Preliminary assessments and site inspections". You'll find the mine site in the table of contents of the report.

  • Reply to

    EPA Inquiry update

    by heptikus Aug 15, 2014 12:31 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 16, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    GV has already spent and/or set aside $2.4M for this project. There are numerous cost sensitive issues that have yet to be determined. It appears they haven't yet conducted a detailed onsite analysis. In my research I found this particular mine site in an environmental report. It's a big mess and involves a few residential homes near the site. I think an add'l million is a conservative estimate for ultimate cost to GV. Good luck!

  • heptikus heptikus Aug 16, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    I agree. The top line looks very good at this point. GV will either need to figure out how to cut unnecessary expenses or grow revs to outpace fixed expenses. GV will likely exceed $100M in revs for 2014 assuming no major storms, etc. However, we could see some increased volatility in the pps which will attract day traders. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    EPA Inquiry update

    by heptikus Aug 15, 2014 12:31 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 15, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    I believe this will ultimately cost GV $3.5M. Insurance claim payout is questionable at best. This will likely drag into next year. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    Top Line - Bottom Line

    by heptikus Aug 15, 2014 12:46 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 15, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    Based upon management's representation of what to expect over the next 12 months, GV should post roughly $135M in revs during the next four quarters. From this I would expect to see a ttm EPS of around $0.30 with the current O/S. 3Q will likely be $25-27M in revs and then further growth in revs from there. Profit will still be challenging through the end of 2014. They may end the year at $0.10 ttm EPS, but if they're hit with big storms or pay out add'l funds for the EPA inquiry that will make it a single digit profit year for GV. The future is looking brighter for longs from a fundamental perspective. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    Some positives in the 10Q...

    by hweb2 Aug 15, 2014 2:55 PM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 15, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    You really should rethink your backlog conversion to revs going forward. GV has redefined what they include in both backlog categories. Good luck!

  • Reply to

    good luck

    by snds10 Aug 15, 2014 10:21 AM
    heptikus heptikus Aug 15, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    Keep in mind that there is a multiple that needs to be considered when estimating revs. For instance, in the 10k for 2012 GV projected $39M revs from backlog for 2013. They booked 2.3x that amount for the full year. That multiple will not hold for this year due to the change in backlog definition. I'm guessing somewhere between 1.5 - 2. Good luck!

  • Top Line - GV outperformed my expectations on revs. They did a good job in capturing revs for the Q and that deserves congrats to management!

    Bottom Line - GV performed within my expected range on EPS. Expenses will continue to be a big challenge going forward. The non-existent storm season has been a huge plus for them. Hopefully this will continue through Q3. Good luck!

  • heptikus by heptikus Aug 15, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    The estimated cost has more than doubled to $2.45M. I believe this will continue to increase as it is further investigated. This site is a huge mess. Did some research on this. It's going to take a lot of time and money to make this right. GV has also been sued by one of the insurance carriers. They want a declaratory judgment to find they are not obligated to the claim filed by GV. This could get messy. So far they are down an estimated $0.10 on their earnings for the year on this. Good luck!

GV
2.14+0.05(+2.39%)Sep 2 4:00 PMEDT

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