It makes you wonder what vested interest people like Shumer or Nelson (from Florida) have in this mess. Why would a Senator from Florida (or NY) be demanding investigations about whether or not a product is compliant in California? It reminds me of the Senator in the Godfather movies. Who does Whitney Tilson have in his pocket?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The CARB standard (which is the strictest) is only applicable in California. They may adopt the standard nationwide, but it wouldn't go into effect for a few more years. The only questionable flooring is the laminate which represents a small portion of LL's sales (about 90 % of their flooring is real hardwood). Regarding the laminates, about half come from China. So overall, the questionable flooring represents only about 5% of LL's total sales. The potential compliance liability is only in California. The scope of the liability could broaden if willful fraud is proven. They label all of the laminate as CARB compliant, whether it ships to California or not. Outside of California, it's more of false advertising on the boxes than anything else. I am confident that LL's test procedures are correct. I believe the 60 minutes story was hype requested by Whitney Tilson to manipulate the stock price. It should also be noted that the CEO of the 'independent' testing agency that did the 60 minutes testing is also the head of the North American Flooring Association who already had lawsuits and an agenda against Chinese flooring manufacturers. Follow the money trail and you'll realize how these headlines really stink.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
As a test, I just tried shorting LL through Ameritrade. No shares are available to short. Inventory is too tight. With a third of the shares already short, it will be very difficult for shorts to cover. It won't take much to set off a massive squeeze. Regardless of whether the flooring is safe (I am confident it is), the shorts are playing with fire on this one. Expect an uptrend going forward.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Exactly. " the platform the composite wood product must comply with the applicable emission standards." That composite wood platform is the core sample, not a deconstructed base sample.
The truth trumps all. People can say whatever they want, as long as it is truthful (it is okay to yell fire in a theatre if one does exist). It is illegal to make up,falsehoods to defame a company. It is also negligent as a minimum (and possibly criminal at maximum) for 60 minutes to air a story as fact without attempting to verifying the facts from an expert source like LL or CARB.
You are simply wrong. CARB is interested in the core sample. The standard is based on the core sample, not the deconstructed sample. Yes, when forming the standards, California Air Board looked at all sorts of different methods of testing. The reason the standard is not based on deconstructive testing is because it produces too varied of results, which don't necessarily correlate with the end product. Yes, the allow it as a substitute in lieu of a core, only when a core isn't available (I.e, some companies don't have access to a product sample in its intermediary state). Re-listen to the experts on the conference call, not a money manager.
I would hope Tom Sullivan would file a suit on behalf of the shareholders. People should be held accountable for their actions.
I don't think any such commercial exists, and I think you are fabricating facts to manipulate the stock. Careful, you are opening yourself up to a lawsuit.
Did you listen to the same conference call that I did. No one uses a deconstructive test, not even the California Air Board! The reason is because the deconstructive tests will produce higher results, and the results will vary significantly depending on how the laminate is deconstructed, and how deep the sample is taken from within the base laminate. The CARB standard is based on core testing. Furthermore, the Prop 65 standard (the source of the latest lawsuits) is based on the flooring as it is installed (not core or deconstructed samples). Shame on 60 minutes for not doing their homework and airing a story without researching the facts.
Stock is up 11% while the Dow is down 215. That's pretty good strength. Party is over for the shorts.Downside momentum is broken so know it's only a matter of when they'll cover, and at what price.
You are making the assumption that Icahn is still holding, which is not true. He locked in his profits with puts when in peaked near $86. He made a half billion just by identifying an opportunity and squeezing the heck out of the shorts.
Most of the lawsuits will be dismissed; the others will be consolidated into one large one. Regardless of whether they are guilty, the suits have to prove damages. I have yet to hear of anyone with real damages. Also, I would assumed the contract with the Chinese manufacturer has an indemnity clause (they are responsible for any damages from defective products. Who knows how much money the manufacturer has, but it should help offset any legal costs. The big damage is the distraction the defense will cause that uses resources that could otherwise be used for something productive.
As of Feb. 15th,more than 1 in four shares was short. After the recent news, I would the expect the short positions to be 40-50%. This will end very badly for the shorts. At a certain point, someone like Ichan will take advantage of the situation. Remember Herbalife?
I believe the claims are baseless:
-The company mentioned the 60 minutes testing was flawed (they cut up the flooring, then tested it. Obviously it will release more fumes than the solid planks).
-even if they are out of compliance, the Carb laws only apply in California, and don't go into effect for another year .
-the suspect flooring represents a small portion of LL's overall sales. They could eliminate it, and it would have a small blip on their earnings.
- has anyone claimed damages? I haven't heard reports of anyone getting sick.
- the fumes will degrade over time. There is no need to remove any flooring. Just like the smell in new carpeting, the fumes will disappear very quickly once installed.
- Yes, the shorts are having a field day now, but once the momentum dries up, the spring will snap back in the other direction very, very violently. I don't know where the bottom lies, but I would expect the price in one month to be much higher than where we are today.
Sentiment: Strong Buy