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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

hia_intell 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 1:10 AM Member since: Oct 11, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha Article Flaws

    by alsense Jan 21, 2015 10:54 PM
    hia_intell hia_intell Jan 22, 2015 1:10 AM Flag

    The retail Forex customers of FXCM are guaranteed that their accounts will not go negative. So they don't owe the negative swing. (Gosh, are they guaranteed against the original margin deposit going negative or are they guaranteed against an overall negative account balance ?)

    The 2014 earnings of FXCM are about $16 million. Out of that they have to pay $300 million in principal plus interest and fees and that in two years time.

    The question is, is the loan-maker the new owner or can the loan be reasonably paid-off by a buyer ? What was accomplished is that the forex broker continued operations.

  • Reply to

    OK so basically the only question to ask is..

    by timross21881 Jan 20, 2015 6:35 PM
    hia_intell hia_intell Jan 20, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    Were the forex customers guaranteed not to have a negative account value ?

  • Reply to

    At Large on the Economy

    by hia_intell Jan 6, 2015 6:57 PM
    hia_intell hia_intell Jan 7, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    The BG bond manager says there's an interest rate increase possible in late 2015.

    But that's not deflation. A down year is expected but not deflation
    .

  • Reply to

    At Large on the Economy

    by hia_intell Jan 6, 2015 6:57 PM
    hia_intell hia_intell Jan 6, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    If this is deflation, then the historic economic crisis of subprime mortgages and bank reserves that began in 2008 is likely to continue. In fact, suppose the desperate attempt to fuel with the economy with subprime mortgages was itself a response to impending long term recession and deflation (and due to age demographics). In that case, it does just come back around.

    Now just assume that this is not deflation but then the U.S. stock market still has a down year in 2015. Why ? Well, because of the pull-back in fracking activity
    .

  • See, QE ended, the dollar went up, and commodity prices dropped.

    But we don't know if this is deflation or not. We don't know if the lower commodity prices are going to increase demand or if the lower commodity prices are reflecting lack of demand.

    Now BG, manager of bond funds, is looking like the only one who knew for sure what was fundamentally going on. In other words and with the end of QE, bonds didn't sell off but went up and apparently in reaction to fundamental deflation. Meanwhile, the BG co-manager begins to look like a silly boy scout that just runs with the crowd and did jump ship.

    But what is the true fundamental ? In other words there is always someone whose theory happened to coincide with results or whose theory appears to coincide with results. Well, the answer is at the end of year and more time is needed to understand the fundamental economy.

    Buy oil companies at lows and for dividends of 4% to 5% ? Well, the dividends could be reduced and oil companies could have credit ratings reduced because they have bond payments to make from lower revenue. But this brings up another point. OPEC increased oil supply as a means of competing with fracking. (Fracking is so horrible that we should probably thank them for this but fracking did become a significant portion of the U.S. economy.) And so are current commodity prices due to fundamental deflation or are they due to OPEC oil supply ? Are commodity producers in general going to maintain profit margins because of cheaper oil or are the lower commodity prices over-riding ?

    Well, is this deflation or not ?

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