You forgot the best reason to buy at these prices - if LPCF was willing to buy in big at higher prices (and I'm sure they did a fair amount of DD) - this is a no brainer since NOTHING has changed since then:
PORTLAND, Ore., Nov. 20, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Galena Biopharma, Inc. ("Galena" or the "Company") (GALE), a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing innovative, targeted oncology treatments that address major medical needs across the full spectrum of cancer care announced today the execution of a purchase agreement for up to $55.0 million with Lincoln Park Capital Fund, LLC ("LPC"), a Chicago-based institutional investor.
Under the terms of the purchase agreement dated November 18, 2014, LPC initially purchased $5.0 million dollars of Galena common stock at a price of $2.00 per share, 9% higher than the market close as of November 18, 2014. Thereafter, at its sole discretion, Galena may sell up to $50 million worth of common stock to LPC over the 36-month term of the purchase agreement, subject to the conditions and limitations set forth in the purchase agreement. Under the terms of the purchase agreement, LPC will not cause or engage in any manner whatsoever, any direct or indirect short selling or hedging of Galena common stock and is obligated to purchase at times and amounts controlled by the Company.
Has nothing to do with the deal with ABBV. Big bio and pharma won't let that slide. Market cap loses for the group over the past 2 days vastly exceeds ESRX's market cap. I see them putting together a consortium/holding company that will buy out ESRX at $120/sh - pocket change compared to potential revenues over the next decade assuming pricing power can be maintained.
How does he do it? Klarman explained his basic philosophy to television talk-show host Charlie Rose during a 2010 interview.
“Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology,” Klarman said. “The economics – the valuation of the business — is not that hard. The psychology – how much do you buy, do you buy it at this price, do you wait for a lower price, what do you do when it looks like the world might end – those things are harder. Knowing whether you stand there, buy more, or something legitimately has gone wrong and you need to sell, those are harder things. That you learn with experience. You learn by having the right psychological makeup.”
Klarman has a special knack for complex transactions that often come with limited liquidity. He has purchased real estate that was acquired by the U.S. government in the savings and loan collapse of the 1990s, dabbled in Parisian office buildings and drilled into Russian oil companies…
Although Klarman seems to delight in fishing for opportunity in obscure and complex deals, he is no slouch when it comes to stock picking. He runs concentrated portfolios, as is evidenced by his positions as of the third quarter of 2014. The top five represented the lion’s share of his invested assets…
As a long-term investor, Klarman doesn’t spend much time monitoring the daily movements of markets. His office features a desk piled high with papers, a computer, some half-filled water bottles, but no Bloomberg terminal, the device with access to market data that traders rely upon…
What Klarman prides himself on as much as making money is not losing it. He has had only two negative years (1992 and 2008).
And here’s a quote that will simultaneously make you love and hate Klarman: “When Charlie Rose asked Klarman to name his biggest mistakes, the Sage of Boston thought a moment but came up empty. ‘I have never really screwed up a lot,’ Klarman said.”
Investing Legends: Baupost’s Seth Klarman
by Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA on DECEMBER 22, 2014 in GURU INVESTING
“In capital markets, price is set by the most panicked seller at the end of a trading day. Value, which is determined by cash flows and assets, is not. In this environment, the chaos is so extreme, the panic selling so urgent, that there is almost no possibility that sellers are acting on superior information. Indeed, in situation after situation, it seems clear that fundamentals do not factor into their decision making at all.” – Seth Klarman
In a recent issue of the Idea Farm, Meb Faber starts a great profile on investing demigod Seth Klarman with this quote. Really stop for a minute and re-read it a couple times. Print it out and tape it to your monitor. Next time you live through a good market crash, recite it like holy writ.
The dirty little secret of the money management profession is that we all have Klarman envy. We don’t just want his returns; we actually want to be him, have his super-human emotional control, and be able to wield that power of that brain of his.
Alas, all of us mortals will have to settle for reading his out-of-print book–which sells on Amazon for thousands of dollars. So desperate are value investors to get their hands on a copy of Margin of Safety, I expect that plenty would be willing to do back-alley deals with men in trenchcoats.
At any rate, here is an excerpt of the profile:
Since founding Baupost Group in 1983, Klarman has grown it into a hedge fund giant managing as much as $30 billion. It’s flagship fund has churned out more than 17% annual returns since its founding, handily beating the S&P 500 rise of about 11% annually during that period, and doing it while often holding 40% or more of assets in cash…
Close above $110 will be bullish - good recovery so far
Some more info on this:
Some more info on this. Hope they have a better strategy than Amazon did for their smartphone:
Kodak Smartphones set to debut next year
By:Adam | December 22nd, 2014
It’s safe to say mobile devices are growing in popularity a little more each day, and everyone is getting in on the action – including Kodak. Yup, the old-school camera company is getting ready to launch the Kodak mobile device range, and it’s set to arrive sooner than you’d think…
Kodak is partnering up with Bullitt Mobile for the Kodak smartphone lineup, and as you’d expect, it is a line that will be geared towards photo lovers. That said, the new Kodak smartphones are supposed to be simple to use but powerful, and will not compromise the user experience or design according to the CEO of Bullitt Mobile, Oliver Schulte.
In terms of the Kodak smartphone specs, we have no idea of what to expect at this time although they did touch on a few of the software features. The camera-centric devices will come with pre-loaded management and sharing features along with “bespoke” image capture. Remote management software was also mentioned, but that’s all we know at the moment.
The upcoming Kodak lineup doesn’t sound like it’s going to be full of half-baked products as the companies appear to be concentrating on photo enthusiasts. It will be a niche product, but it may just be the one shutterbugs have been longing for. We won’t have to wait long to find out, as the first Kodak smartphone will launch at CES 2015 in a few short weeks.
Maybe Baupost went along with this in exchange for his full cooperation when it comes time to accepting a BO offer.
Also - wouldn't be surprised to see one or two upgrades Monday morning.
At the very least, the timing of this conference in mid Jan should limit the amount of year-end tax selling in the stock. Sell now and you have to wait 30 days to buy back to avoid the wash sale rule. Don't think that any long time holders would want to be out of the stock when this conference takes place.
If no BO before then - the approval will seal the deal.
I'll buy more here and hold for 2-3 years - at some point this will move substantially higher
Does this mean results will be reported in January? Or does it takes significant time to analyze the data and report it?
They didn't hit their own launch timeline. On Sept. 5th they announced they would launch within 12 weeks. I know a few weeks' delay until the end of the year is not a big deal in the overall scheme of things - but it doesn't reflect well on their ability to execute in a timely manner. My hope is that they needed the extra time to ensure things go smoothly at launch, to update all marketing materials with the new drug name, and to accumulate pre-orders so they have high script rates right out of the gate.
Keep those bribes coming - that's the only language the Chinese government understands.
I think Baupost's plan is to have Keryx get two quarters of sales under their belt - hopefully with an accelerating monthly script rate. That should drive the pps into the 20s. Then the BO around mid 2015 can be in the $35-40 range.