Dow off over 90 pts again, too. And the S&P is off over 9pts. It's simply a lousy "tape." Here are my thoughts...if the $13.90 line breaks then this sets up the bid to be walked back into the mid to low $13's....and since we all recognize how much Master loves those teens what're the odds of $13.teens next week? I tend to see this as a low percentage probability....but this sector is just not loved.....and I suspect it won't be for the remainder of this year and probably well along the way to 2020....I've seen this sort of thing before...and sentiments do not change quickly....in this case it could be a generation....but that's just me being gloomy. Meanwhile...my .95 bid just got hit....bid now $13.94...off over 1.3% which means there is still room for further walk-down given its tendency to go on those ~2% jaunts (both up and down) when so engaged....
Yesterday the intraday range was $14.05 to $14.45. Today my WAG is the range will be $14.35 to $13.95....a 10 penny differential. Why not? The action against the bid is identical to yesterday; with the sell side dominating the conversation....the buy side is barely at the table...just laying back letting the selling take the Pooch south. Bid $13.97.
The Pooch just can't get out of its own way. But as usual it's not just the Pooch. Pull up an intraday chart of C, or JPM, or the ETF XLF, or GS. Overlay their charts on top of each other. They're dam near identical. So what we've got here is just a continuing manifestation of how little liked the sector is by the market. From the way the options look, juxtaposed against the real-time action...my WAG is Master will close this animal, today, slight south of $14. My WAG? How does $13.98 sound?
Ummm....actually...just in referencing history one could be forgive for thinking that it's the Neo-con's the ladies should be concerned with....you'd think that when it comes to sex and money the Dem's would be on the former while the neo-con's on the latter. The truth seems to be just the opposite. That's a paraphrase of a quote from one Larry Flynt of Hustler.
;-) But just to note one day of bounce do not a complete resolution to the downside energy make (has that for a bit of Yoda speak? Heh). A few days of this sort of consolidative action is needed. I do think the bid holding north of that older uptrend line now sitting at ~$9.25 is telling us something...but as always we'll only know its certainty with time. Don't'cha just luv this game?
BAC: On this we agree. Or at least I'm positioning my trades from the vantage point of the buy side and not the sell. Anything less than $14.10 seems to be a "gimmee!" Anything north of ~$14.35...for now...is sell sell SELL! But if it can get north of .35 on volume...hell..let's make that .50...then the next stop would be a return to the $15 zone. But not this week. After that...well....$15 represents a line it has not been north of size early January, when it was in the midst of being hammered south. I doubt it gets north of it easily....and we all know how much the machines love to churn this thing....not that I'm complaining...mind you. ;-)
Post earnings session 4 is usually more indicative and instructive of the overall market attitude regarding the merit of the paper. So far it has unfolded in almost classic fashion. There was the earnings news...which wasn't bad...along with the recognition, by the hot, or in keeping with a certain media title, Fast, Money, that "that's it for the next few months." Typically they vote adios, and that's what they did...they voted their feet which usually fuels a certain amount of "let#$%$ the stops" action. And so the last 3 sessions have unfolded. Just to be clear, this is all just my experential WAG on the last 3 sessions. Today is a bit different...and the action reflects it. I'm not saying it's all moonbeams, unicorns and "to the moon." Far from it. It's more to say that if you're playing the buy side game, longer term....this area of the single digits just might represent compelling value? Just some thoughts.
I did the same thing, but this time I did not short the inevitable yank like I did yesterday. This is the 3rd session in a row where the opening pop is met with a equal and opposite YANK...and I thought maybe 3rd time is the charm and the Pooch might be allowed to stay on the upside. Nah....what was I thinking? It seems Master is tracking a shorter term downtrend line I've got from the ~$15.04 back on April 28...he's not letting the Poochie get north of it...and today it sits at...~$14.34.
But that's okay...I reopened my buy side tranches, once again, a bit south of $14.10 (~$14.08 overall). I figure to sell them at, or close to, that downtrend line....see the churn pattern....play the churn pattern. Bid now $11.10
Hey..I care less about his taxes. It's a non-issue to me. It's more about his reaction to the queries. Face it...if he can release his taxes to the State gaming authorities what, exactly, is the issue with doing so now, eh? What...his entourage might discover his "hands" ain't as big as he claims? ;-) And in the world of Plutocrats size IS important ain't it? (VBG)
Anyway...back to more pertinent subjects...have you noticed that Master has been allowing the Pooch to pop upwards first thing...after which he YANKS the mutt straight back into the teens? This is the 3rd session running where he has done this. I smell a pattern? Heh!
The IRS states it unlikely they did "years in a row" against any citizen. Trump claims otherwise. Geee...I wonder who's telling the truth? Kind'a like that 'ol riddle about confronting two liars and asking them which one is telling the truth? HEH! Anyway....this kefluffle is simply being accentuated by the Trumpster. How so? Well....I'll leave aside the why and simply look at the facts. Trump has handed over tax returns in the midst of audits before -- to state gambling officials in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, as part of the process of seeking casino licenses in those states. So his argument doesn't work does it?
But leaving all of that aside I'm not surprised by any "multiplicity" of audits. The guy's company's have been in/out/in/out of BK how many times? I'm sure the citizens of Atlantic City, NJ can tell you (HEH). I suspect his personal tax returns are a veritable accountants mine-field as a consequence...
LOL! True enuf. Nobody works for free and this ain't the "Star Trek, Next Generation" era where money is an irrelevancy. Everyone works for the money because it allows you to eat. Heh! Anyway....what I'd be more curious to know is their compensation. They must have a base pay, yes? What's the compensation? What's the merit increases, etc.. I'm sure you know the drill...how much of their compensation might be tied to stock merits and such? That, THAT, would be instructive wouldn't it?
Juuuust saying....meanwhile...today is post-earnings session # 4. The ~3 day post-earnings window of riot and mayhem is now closed....let's see if it translates in the fashion I'm mentioned in other postings. Meaning? Meaning yesterday showed a test of longer term uptrend line support (from the ~$3.15 level of June, 2011), and it - so far - bounced off it in positive fashion. Where does that line sit, today, so as to monitor for my WAG's efficacy? ~$9.25. Let's see what happens.
There's no way to tell if the action is dominated by short selling. And naked shorting is illegal so we know that ain't happening (heh). Anyway....I suspect the action isn't so much a short side action as it is hot/fast money heading for the exits having recognized there's not much ahead to move the pps. The paper is now in a fallow period...one upwards of 6 months in duration. That's an eternity of time to such a crowd...so they go elsewhere. You'll know they're done when you see those periodic sell side volume spikes (in the 30-60K range) abate. And here in the final hour I haven't seen one...yet..in fact there have been a couple of buy side spikes of similar size...and the bid is trying to come back at $9.58, all while being supported with a good sized show...so the worst of the wave of selling may be over....and this is (also) day 3 of post earnings sessions....so....let's see how it closes and then it's on to tomorrow and the next 6 months?
ding ding DING! Okay...we into the bell lap...the final 30 minutes....typically if the Pooch is going to be run into the ground this is the interval that it commences to do so....let's see what happens...bid $14.18...ooops...17...and beginning to slip while being attacked with the ask showing the usual cap...here we go?
Ummmm...not to point out the obvious but to my mind it ain't Frost' job to manage a stock price. His job is to grow the company based on the execution of his vision and business plan. All else being equal the pps will ultimately derive from this. I'd be more concerned about the viability of a company if that's all management focused on.
Speaking of which..bid $9.56. So far it looks like a first test of that longer term uptrend line (now sitting at ~$9.25) has occurred. Those not willing to wait out the next (possible) 6 months before a touted product can be officially sold are probably just about out of this equity. Within the post-earnings 3 days mentioned in a different posting. This ain't to say it's all moonbeams and unicorns ahead...far from it...there's probably a fair amount of churn and sideways action ahead....but maybe the worst of the selling has occurred. You'll know it is if you stop seeing those periodic +30K share sell side spikes in the action. Let's see how the rest of the week goes...
LOL! Good call. Errrr...so far....but this is the Pooch...and there's still a bit less than 2hrs left...that's PLENTY of time to wag the dog all over the place...both down and up...bid $14.19 and I'm letting go my second "get" from $14.07 here..
True enuf. Overall the markets are acting very frothy....and frothy at tops/bottoms is indicative of a trend about to change...so if the markets roll over all bets are off as to the upside on dam near everything. It's also why, overall, my tactical game is more on the sell side than the buy...I've open shorts in a variety of the big boys/girls since I expect when things roll it'll all roll right over them...indeed...it's already starting to. As for OPK.....it's done an impressive ~20% decline in less that 15 sessions...and there's no way to paint that in a positive way. It's fugly.
Don't know from $4 but should the $9.25 area fail then I'll be joining you on the sell side....tactically speaking. Those sell side ~30K to ~60K share spikes are still hammering the bid south....there doesn't appear to be a bottom to the wallets of those doing the selling...bid now $9.38 and going for that .25...