Nah...no chicken littles here. ;-) But the news in the oil patch leaves me juuuust a weee bit....bemused? My memory stretches far enough back that I recall the hyperventilating pontifications of the self-annointed analytical set who predicted skies of DOOM would open up on us all if oil ever went north of....$50. Then it was....$70....then it was....$100. History shows how accurate they were then, so I fail to see the need to listen to 'em now.
That said....I do see the non-renewable commodity as something fundamental to our civilization. And I also don't believe the endless pontifications by our Corporate/Political Elites who say "We's (meaning Americans) oil/energy INDEPENDENT for ever and ever and ever god bless us every one!" Yeah....I'm gonna trust 'em on this....which is why I'm now looking at all the oil babies being thrown out with the bathwater.....looking at 'em with a longer term eye..... ;-)
Let's see how it plays in the oil patch. Oh....meanwhile...BAC bid $16.82 and going nowhere fast....except sliding a bit....
Bid being walked up and down with remarkable...... alacrity. ;-) Friday's opening gap now "officially" filled....let's see if the bid gets moved north of that aforementioned weee downtrend line...$36.01.
Bid now $16.78. The tactical selling is proceeding apace in the usual fashion. Well..usual for those who've watched the intraday action on this equity for longer than a cyber-second (heh). Locking in my usual targeted 10pennies with a very close trailing stop. From here downwards I expect resistance to the slide to increase.....
Well one shouldn't be surprised that all the FUD that's swirling around this company would resist diminishing, eh? It is what it is.....and at .90 I've opened a test short position.....the usual sell side tactical assault on bid is in effect right now.....could be the sell side camp has similar thoughts.....and the more the bid drops the more self-reinforcing it becomes.
Trading trend I'm watching. Draw a line off Fridays ~high of $36.22, and use as a second point the session opening level of ~$36.10. Watch the bid and play it based on how it performs against that line. And let the month of December BEGIN! ;-)
Bid now $35.96.
YANK! Guess Master feels there ain't no news so bring Poochie back close(er) to heel. I'm looking to either go short or long a trade. I figure BAC is set to languish as there's little I can see to ignite a strong upside. So....as such...should .90 break for real then that set's up a possible continued retrenchment back into the $16.60-'s.....not sure it'll do it....but the odds (with this break) increase because running the Fib's from ~$16.15 to ~$17.45 shows Master is testing a break back south of the 38.2% retracement level....and for me that's a key level....and it's my set-up. Short if .90 truly fails else, go long....both are only trades....
The reading BOT's only read head-lines....for that matter the same came be said for the human herd that plays this game. Those who produce such head-lines know this. So....look behind the curtain and look at the man/woman/group producing the news to possibly answer your why....
Rloos: Not that my opinion matters squat but if you're patient I'd say your entry is okay. But for now it's all chug and churn. It's not going anywhere fast to the upside....but downside seems washed out, too. Errrrr....for the most part (in either direction). I think a lot of what is being seen (in BAC) right now reflects longer term set-ups....say mid-2015. The only immediate loss I can think of is your hair from pulling it out in frustration? ;-) Or maybe I'm just projecting my own tendencies.....but for now both camps, buy sider and sell side, must be feeling more or less the same....in any case any tax loss selling...and perhaps gains taking, too....may now taper off since November is officially done. December should be interesting me thinks. Bid closed $17.04.
Just some thoughts....
Maybe. But not looking good right now in hitting your target. Despite the pulses up/down it has not been able to get far from the current bid.....$17.03...the "swamp zone" is the cap.....supply/demand seems balance here....so it bounces and churns along all while remaining under that aforementioned downtrend line. I can't go short here because there is no clear set-up...but until that downtrend line gets broken to the upside there is also no clear set-up to go long, either.
Just some random thoughts which could be waaaay wrong....
Look at the volume right now. It's huge. 7.8M and climbing. Bid $1.31/ Makes sense from a tax loss standpoint. Any institutional covering, etc., has already been done (imho)....today is all about retail who's held one as long as possible. Today is the result. Let's see what December and the first quarter 2015 brings...I doubt there's be any real bounce....excepting as a dead cat...but I'm intrigued by that potential....bid $1.30...I suspect this one my collapse further going into the early close.....it is what it is....
Bid $17.07 and going for .06. The pattern the last few (4) sessions is to start off with a quick pop then drop it. Master is taking Poochie right back to at ~$17.05/.06 line.....it seems to be the magnet over the last ~10 sessions.
JB: "Next year we should see at least $25 by the time Q2 earnings are released. I could be wrong..."
Oh boy....while I agree with the overall sentiment I've got to say we see $25 by your timeframe and I will burn Incense at your altar! For now it's all chug and churn...though it could be a set-up for a run into the new year. Today will probably be much like earlier in the week....I ain't looking for much of anything until maybe next week....Bid $17.10 and simply being churned....
Boy is the bid having never ending trouble getting thru that ~$17.10 to .20 "swamp." There's a downtrend line I've kept up on my TA charts that stems from the ~$17.96 line of March 21. That line, though approached at least 3 times from then until now, has proven to be a big wall. The saving grace is the bid doesn't back away from it much, percentage-wise, and the stoch's on a 6 month chart are beginning to curl favorably for the buy side. So this might bode well from now until into first quarter.....though....have I ever mentioned chug and churn? For now it's all about watching that downtrend line.....well....it is for me (heh).....and today that line sits at ~$17.25.....until it gets broken on volume the current pattern of sideways action remains in effect.
Just my 2pennies worth on this post T-day....now....everyone...get out there and shop shop SHOP! Pump those dollars into the Economy! ;-)
Codi: Strong close is paramount; especially considering the overall strength of the markets. The next couple of sessions are important. Bid's now at $34.68. We're testing triple top highs here....either it breaks thru and goes for the next level...which would be the ~$40 level (based on my earlier WAG discussion) or.......time to flip to the dark side (as a trader). Be mindful of Lucy and that 'ol football. ;-)
KG, Codi: Interesting indeed. The trader in me says take profits sufficient to cover cost and let the rest ride.....and at $34.96 that's what I'm inclined to do....while watching and waiting on the next set up.
Okay....NOW it gets interesting.. Cramer's Reverse HnS....all guesses to the contrary or else....if it can hold here and go....well...follow the TA analysis mentioned edariler...+$40? Let's see how 'ol Lucy plays it...
"Sell off holdings now....(and such)."
Nah...I've already taken profits/losses on all my positions that I deem suitable for such. I'm looking for the undervalued situations that have suffered from the usual end of year tax loss "adjustments." These usually occur in November....I also look for window-dressing over-valued situations, too. I look for outliers....set-ups to launch me to my 2015 profit targets....it's weird but.....and I've been playing this game for a goodly number of years at this point....but the majority of the time I've found I garner a significant percentage of my yearly target in the first quarter to first half of the year....and then the remainder of the time is spent just making sure I don't give it all back......errrr.....so to speak. ;-)
Bid $17.11....looks like Master is relaxing the hold on da Pooch?
Nah...been around...just low key here.....tending other fires (so to speak). There's really not too much more to say about BAC right now.....to me it's in a holding chug and churn pattern....so until this breaks, one way or the other...well....not much more to be said/done. But the nice thing about this game is there's a universe of other possibilities "out there." So while monitoring here I can (go) play other "tables." ;-) And at this time of year I'm all about setting things up for the year to come....snuffling around for the potential plays, etc..
Meanwhile....bid $17.08....looks like it's trying to get back into the $17.teens....let's see if it does so or if Master does a closing yank...
Mike: You say....
"The ONLY thing charts are good for is to predict behavior..Part of that behavior self fulfills on charts most people look at..Its the whole point of TA. But some think TA is its own entity making trades on its own I suppose. "
Yah...indeed...in a very real sense (to me) TA is all about human behavior. Strictly scientfically speaking there's absolutely no reason to infer that once a bid hits some level/line 'X' that it should do pattern 'Y." None, zip, nada. It's all prognosticating human behavior...the herd in action. Something that is inherently unpredictable.
So...to the extent we all agree on the metrics of TA it then becomes....a self-fulfilling prophecy because we all key off the same metrics. We even program our servile machines along the same lines. Funny the human animal is sometimes. It's that lack of recognition of this "fact" that makes those who worship exclusively at the TA altar so flawed (sometimes) with their prognostications . They take it as gospel when it isn't. They get lost and don't see the forest for the trees (so to speak).
I'm not being overly critical about this because I, like others, use it because....well....when you're making your decisions you've got to hang yer hat on SOMETHING!? I prefer TA to chicken entrails. ;-) But...my only caution as it relates to MU and this reverse HnS...is that head...it's too pointy....a more rounded head...meaning more time spent basing/consolidation of the pattern....would give it more legitimacy...to me. Pointy is....well...like pointy headed people (heh).....not to be trusted as much.
But...all that digression and such.....let's see what the markets think....we're in the final hour and the bid is at.....$34.25...looks good....closing here or better would be a nice harbinger for next week. Oh....I'm holding a open trading position in MU...I got some on the afternoon p/b to sub $34.10 so consider the source when reading my WAG posting.
Well the market so far chug and churned the bid north of $17.15, now chugging and churning it back to $17? Bid $17.07 and under the usual sell side tactical assault....