Hard to say...probably not on the first test, which it's done earlier today. Bid now straight-lining at $15.92 while a ton of activity is hitting the spread. The ask is staying just large enough to keep the bid capped....I'd say today is a transition day, from overly negative sentiment acting as a drag on the pps to the beginnings of a more positive sentiment as initially expressed by Deut. Bank. But the bid is a pig. I don't expect a rapid upside, more a longer term shuffle....TA kind'a reinforces this. The last time the bid was at this ~level was back on June 11 and subsequent to that it got hammered back to $15.20. You have to go back to April 28th to find a point when the bid was north of $16. So I'd say it'll take some oomph to get it there....but the saving grace is this makes for a double top (over the last 60 days or so) test setting up....another break-down ahead, or break-out? I suspect the latter but....again...Master aint about to let Poochie run far on a loose leash...much less take her off it....it'll be a slog to the upside.
All just my 2pennies worth. Bid now $15.94.
Kind'a like Yahoo news links pointing to SA pseudonym postings and labeling it news, eh? HEH! This whole game is incestuous like that.....the sooner you realize it, the better your playing of it (the game) can become....or not. ;-)
Yup...now $15.96. Did I mention the bid is a pig? Or a Poochie that Master keeps on a tight leash? Sentiment may be changing but where it counts, the intraday action, it's a bit slower. Remember this is a much loved churn machine for the HFT/Algo set...
Huck: I tend to agree. As a sector play this one is (now) well under value when compared with its peers. Even so, I don't think Master will make it easy....
Nest: "It looks like the so-called $17B talk is really more like $4.5B at the most. It seems the DOJ is probably including previously settled complaints in that number."
Hmmmmm....admittedly I have not been tracking BAC news all that carefully so this is the first I'm seeing/hearing this. But....if true....well...that ain't bad, eh? ;-)
It'll close up....or should in any case. It may not get back north of $16 today though. Hard to say, though, as there's usually a fair amount of mischief played against the bid, both positively and negatively. It's a roll of the dice. Bid $15.87.
Indeed. For now going into the final 15 minutes.....the mischief period (as I think of it) Master is just not letting Poochie off the tight leash. Bid $15.85. Right now this looks like just about where it'll close. Both sides are stacking. Both sides are getting wacked....and so, too, the spread. And both sides keep refilling like they've an infinite supply.
Waiting on the jobs report plus Master perhaps rearranging the dog-run to allow Poochie to stay north of $16? One can only hope. Let's see what the jobs report does...bid now $15.92 in PM.
Thought on a Sunday this might be worth a read?
1. Dollar-cost average for your entire life and you'll beat almost everyone who doesn't.
2. Only invest in products and companies you can explain to a six-year old.
3. Every five to seven years, people forget that recessions occur every five to seven years.
4. You're twice as biased as you think you are (four times if you disagree with that statement).
5. Read more books and fewer articles.
6. Read more history and fewer forecasts.
#$%$ strange that you go to the doctor once a year, but check your investments once a day.
8. Be careful when reading about how stupid investors can be and not realize you're reading about yourself.
9. Your circle of competence is probably 90% smaller than you think it is.
10. You're only diversified when some of your investments perform worse than others.
11. Big risks will always be disregarded; small risks always blown out of proportion.
12. Check your brokerage account as infrequently as it takes to prevent rash decisions.
13. When in doubt, choose the investment with the lowest fee.
14. Emotional intelligence is more important than book intelligence.
15. The more you learn about the economy, the more you realize you have no idea what's going on.
16. Start saving for college before your kid is born, and start saving for your retirement before you graduate college. You'll feel silly when you start and like a genius when you finish.
17. The most powerful way to grow your money is learning to live with less, since you have complete control over it.
18. Singer Rihanna nearly went broke and fired her financial advisor, who described her situation well: "Was it really necessary to tell her that if you spend money on things, you will end up with the things and not the money?"
19. You have no obligation to have an opinion about anything.
20. You have a strict obligation to not have an opinion about things you don't understand.
21. No one attending private school should be on student loans. Most should utilize community and state schools, which provide just as good an education for a fraction of the price.
22. You shouldn't feel strongly about any investment you haven't spent at least a week thinking about.
23. Holding 60% of your assets in stocks and 40% in bonds isn't perfect for everyone; but I can think of a thousand worse strategies.
24. Respect the role luck has played on some of your role models.
25. Don't take out $100,000 in student loans for anything other than medical school (if that).
26. Change your mind as often as the facts change.
27. Ignore people who refuse to change theirs when the facts change.
28. Read last year's market predictions and you'll never again take this year's predictions seriously.
29. Warren Buffett's folksy talk misleads people into thinking that what he's accomplished is easy. It's not.
30. Sleep on every investment decision for a week, then run it by a trusted friend before acting.
31. Two things you can do to make yourself a better investor are increase the amount of time you're investing for and the humility you put into your ideas.
32. Just as you should dress appropriately for your age, you should spend appropriately for your income, and not a penny more.
33. Warren Buffett has the best explanation of dumb risk-taking: "To make money they didn't have and didn't need, they risked what they did have and did need. And that's foolish. It is just plain foolish."
34. You can probably afford not to be a great investor -- you probably can't afford to be a bad one.
35. You're twice as gullible as you think you are.
36. Learn more from your bad investments than your good ones.
37. Judge investors by the quality of their arguments, not the performance of their last trade.
38. You can realistically afford probably half the home the mortgage broker approves you for.
Yup....Master walking Poochie back downward. The July 3rd gap is now closed. Let's see if Master wants to walk Poochie down to closing the July 2 gap...which would mean a retracement back to the $15.60 area....bid $15.88.
Tigger: Good point. At least there's an uptrend line in place. I put an uptrend line on my chart from the top of the May 27th gap (~$15) and so far, from then until now, the bid has basically danced around it. For now the ~$15.90 to ~$16 zone is resistance. Barring yet more FUD-related news, which one cannot discount, I'd say Master will eventually let Poochie run past, and remain north of, $16. Current bid, $15.89.
Tigger: I tend to agree. And I'd like to think, based on what I'm seeing of the intraday action, that Master is grooming the runs to allow Poochie to get and stay north of $16. But of course this is all predicated on some sort of end to the unrelenting water torture trickle of FUD-related news that seems keep things juuuust a bit edgy. We might be firmly in the midst of the dog days of summer but I'd like to think (hope?) that in this case it'll be days Poochie just might like? But as always let's see what Master actually does.
Bid churning at $15.88.
With Master pushing Poochies nose to the $15.84 line so far it certainly looks like that's the set-up. Gotta close that July 2nd gap (from ~$15.60 to ~$15.80) after all. Or at least some percentage of it....