Flying: YW. Sorry for its fragmented nature. It set me to wondering....does Yahoo do a word/letter count of postings? And if you exceed some arbitrary threshold within some arbitrary amount of time do they block you? It's the only thing I can conclude...anyway...can't complain...it's a free service after all... ;-)
Vincent: My apologies for the staggered nature of my posting (see below). For some reason Yahoo censors (?) kept blocking the total posting of it so I fragmented it just to see where what in the hell they were blocking. Turns out...nothing? So I can't account for the blocking. Anyway, FYI to all who care? Oh...and thanks to Findingbigtips for the option data. Interesting stuff.
On its list of 2016 operating priorities, Micron includes ramping 20nm DRAM and 3D NAND, and commercializing 3D XPoint.
Micron forecast DRAM and NAND bit demand will respectively see ~25% and ~40% CAGRs from 2016-2019
Micron forecast DRAM and NAND bit demand will respectively see ~25% and ~40% CAGRs from 2016-2019, with the high-margin server/storage market delivering 40% and 60% CAGRs.
Anything said at the meeting? Well...I got this SA note in my email box:
Beaten-up Micron (MU +3.4%) made it back above $10 today after hosting its Winter Analyst Conference this morning. Cowen and Wells Fargo were among those to provide positive reactions.
Following major 2015 DRAM price declines, Cowen's Tim Arcuri is pleased with Micron's DRAM outlook. "Forward industry commentary remained constructive on a combination of structural supply constraints and, we think, a more candid desire from Samsung to maintain memory profits now that mobile has imploded."
Arcuri is worried about NAND oversupply as industry 3D NAND production ramps, but likes the competitiveness of Micron and Intel's 3D NAND offerings. "[P]er our estimates, [48-layer 3D NAND] is ~60-70% more bits/wafer than 1z planar [NAND] – which reeks of an over-shoot and one where we remain very bearish on the supply side ... Relative to MU’s own solution, our field work continues to suggest a very strong offering with a truly unique 3D NAND process and is the “dark horse” in the 3D NAND battle and the one about which Samsung is most concerned."
Wells' David Wong: "In our view, the key takeaway from the presentations is that Micron’s upcoming DRAM and NAND technology transitions could help drive bit growth over the next two years, after several quarters in which bit growth paused, while also driving down cost per bit and helping Micron’s margins."
Wong recapped Micron's near-term DRAM/NAND bit growth and cost/bit outlook: "The FY17 vs FY15 expected CAGR for DRAM bit shipments is 20-30%. NAND bit output is expected to continue drifting sideways through much of the rest of FY16, and then ramp steadily with a fairly steep slope through FY17, driven, we think, by ramping 3D NAND output. The FY17 vs FY15 expected CAGR for NAND bit shipments is 30-40% ... The 2 year CAGR, FY17 vs FY15, for average cost per bit is expected to be down 15-25% for DRAM and down 20-30% for NAND."
In its conference slides (.pdf
Hey...consider this....if earlier this week actually works out to be the 52week crater bottom....and if you've ridden and played this all the way down from late November....I guess you could say you know how far your pain threshold can be pushed with this paper? I know....I know...I'm playing the clown...I'll stop now. ;-)
Oh yeah....I caught it. Not at its inception, mind you, but earlier this AM. Been in/out/in in usual fashion a couple of times over the day. It's been a frothy frenzied day (for me). Between playing some of the finnies, the oils, some tech and whatnot....whooosh....hell of a day. I'm juuust a bit burnt right now....
Anyway....trying to decide if I want to hold the trades over the week-end. I'm leaning towards doing so simply as a way to hold a "marker" in the event the Saudi's/Iranian's actually do publicly rub noses. THAT I would pay good money to see given how much they luv each other (heh).
Into the final hour, bid at $7.05 and we've that little piece of Saudi/Iran news that's just got to be sitting uncomforably in the minds of anyone holding this paper short right now. Color me interested to see how it closes the session...
This is what I'll submit. We who've followed, and played, this thing all the way drom ~$18 were probably the last to admit that the pps was truly being sold off. Consequently we're probably not going to be the first to admit that maybe it's turned? ;-) But that's okay so long as you're playing the set-up's as the TA signals.
Anyway....we're into the final hour and look'it THAT! Bid $11.93 and gaining some much overdue buy side support. Indeed...it appears the tactical sell side game has abated. We'll need to see a few more (days) of this.....it could be true that yesterday was the bottom (52 week). Regardless...we all know how mischief reigns supreme in the final hour...especialy on a Friday leading into the 3-day week-end....let's see which way the mischief takes the Pooch.....I suspect up if only due to short covering not wishing to be caught out because of any positives that might occur over that time.
Hmmm...check the news over there on the right...it's right there...under the "Top Stories..." Iran wants to make nice with the Saudi's? Hmmmmm....now ain't that an interesting development? The two angry kids want to get along with each other in the same sand-box? Let's see how THIS works out...could bode well....or at least..is promising? But this IS the Mid-East...don't hold yer breath...
Well we had that blip of Saudi rumor-news late in the session yesterday. So what's this out on the news? It's on your "Top Stories" list to the right of this posting.
"Iran says ready to put rivalries aside with Saudi Arabia."
Does this mean the kids are settling down to play nice with each other in the same sand-box? Could bode well for some stability on certain profit oriented fronts, eh? Let's see how it plays out.
Hey are you the guy who takes the punch-bowl away at the party?! :P! Anyway...I'm not sure I disagree with the sentiment. I do know this...I don't plan on holding any open trades in this paper over the week-end. It's hard to see much more downside ahead...but then again....I can't say I expected what we've endured since late November, either. So clearly I ain't a seer at this game. ;-)
Regardless...I'd see a close at $12 or better as a good indicator for next week. That's 20pennies north of the current $11.80. Let's see what happens in the next couple of hours...
Now it gets interesting. A relief bounce was to be expected somewhere along the way of this bear mauling. We're getting it. On an intraday basis the bid has now been pulled back to test the (intraday) Fib retracement (low to high = $11.40 to ~$12.02) level of 38.2%. That line sits at ~$11.78. Master brought the Pooch back to the line, shoved his nose under it...and now is letting him dance around it. It'll be interesting to see what he allows the Pooch to do into close...anyone want to hazard a guess as to how the Pooch ends the day?
Bid now $11.75.
I'd go with that presumption. Remember you play this vehicle, hell this game, according to the dictates of the big boys/girls. So always go with the presumption that they will be doing what's best..for themselves....your considerations are inconsequential....
Maybe...but never forget this animal is on a heavy leash. It might be let out....it may be reel in tight...but it's a leash the machines control. And it pays to keep firmly in the frontal lobes the fact that, to them, this equity is a ATM cash machine. And they hold the keys....the last 30 minutes have been a wave of selling that's settled the bid back to $11.75. They will never, EVER, give this ATM up...not while it's so easy to churn it....
Bid $12. To those newly arriving onto the BAC dance floor for having bought a ticket to that floor down in the low $11's you can commence to kick up yer heels. For all the rest who've been engaged in this marathon of downside dancing you can release your breath the worst.....the worst is over? Not saying it's all moonbeams and rainbows from here on out....far from it...but maybe...juuuust maybe...the band has gone to a slow forward motion waltz to allow everyone to catch their breath and relax a little? Maybe? ;-)
Let's see how it closes...as importantly...how's oil doing? Heh!
I've been tracking the finny's closely....and also the oil complex. There's an almost tick to tick correlation between the two. Right, wrong or otherwise whenever oil does a pulse up so, too, the finnies. And when it farts or hiccups so does the finnies. Kind'a funny to watch...
Being that I'm currently long a trade I got to say that I....agree? But if you're just watching I'd say wait to see if $10 holds firm as a base.