HA! And I'll bet you're one of those folks who likes walking in the rain sans umbrella? ;-)
Anyway...fugly for sure. But regardless...for the week the bid closed up, though clearly not as strongly as some hoped. But I think it comes to this. The INTC/MU gambit is all on the come. It's an attempt to manage and overhang the sector by showing some of their cards to the competition. This is probably to staunch earnings bleeding plus freeze, somewhat, the plans of their customers who might be in the middle of +2016 product cycles that require product. This is all just a WAG of course.
But in any case it's all on the come. For now it's all about whether the bid can hold north of its current 52 week low ($17.14), and the action will probably be a function of what the market feels about the known knowns (to wax Rumsfeldesque in verbage). Is MU in the bottom of its product cycle? Have the EXISTING products return to being commodities yet again? All of this and more will dictate the immediate term, a concern deflected a bit by the gambit. Today, imo, has simply been a function of securing profits before they vanished off the earlier in week upside. I toss it in the analytical waste basket as a one-off event at this point. Next week and beyond will give a better read.
All just my 2 pennies worth....and it has just about that much value, too.
Enjoy the week-end!
Here's one. Straight up at 16:00:00 i see a 3,344,184 BLOCK sell went across at $18.51.
By the coup d'etat on the final half hour was that 1M share sell side burst that drove the bid from $18..63 to $18.47 in the blink of an eye. THAT was the knife in the eye of any further buy side enthusiasm...it happened at 3:50pm and you can see it on the chart.
And straight up at 16:00:00 i see a 3,344,184 BLOCK sell went across at $18.51. I suspect THAT's the knife.....
In a word, yes. The buy side has completely stopped trying and left the gaming table allowing the sell side to drive the bid into the floor here in the last couple of minutes. Bid now $18.51, off ~$1.40 or ~7%. A fugly end to a week that started off so promising. In effect you can throw this week out as so much noise as it feels out a double bottom off the current 52 week low.
Buy side has completed stepped away from the game and letting the bid fall where it will. Now $17.87. Fugly indeed.
Now $17.90. Buy side exhausting itself. Ask showing large while the bid takes the heat....yeah...it's going to close (at this rate) in the high $17.80's. Volume seems about average?
Z27. The problem with this logic is sumbody has been continually selling into every instance where the buy side tries to rally. The ask fades....they appear to be setting up to fade upwards under heavy buying pressure but....the ask refills refills and refills some more until...the BID fails! For instance...right now...bid $18.72 x .73. The ask is show small, being smacked around by buying....yet it keeps refilling until...like just now...suddenly it shows way larger than the bid and it's the bid that starts to crumple. There's nothing special in this action. I only note it as a hallmark of a tactical sell side game that you must be cautious about (as a buy sider) so long as you see it in effect...which it has been all day long.
I was looking for a final hour push back to the ~$19 line but,, with the bid at .71 and STILL being attacked I think it'll do well to close at this level....the sell side game has been...for lack of a better word....good today...
Errrr....tomorrow? ;-) Anyway....I dunno...slap me and call me stoopid but I just realized that to close flat Master would have to be willing to let the Pooch run back to ~$18.10. 40 minutes left in the session and I don't see that happening. If we're lucky he'll let the Pooch close at HFT's Option killing $18 or there'bouts. But....maybe the $17.95 area? Like yesterday the bid just cannot seem to get out of its own way. Let's see how it goes....
Excited? I'll bet the camera crew have to clean the spittle off his teleprompter at the end of every day. When he stays on topic he's good at his game. But whenever he strays OT and well beyond his "paygrade"....well....my gawds he degenerates quickly....and over the years that I've observed him on the air he's increasingly more out there beyond his paygrade than he is sticking with what he knows. Guess it's just a sign of the usual megalomania that seems to set up on these chattering classes types once they begin believing their own press? So it goes....
Meanwhile BID $17.94....aaaannnnn we're also IN the final hour. All that churn. All that screeching and carrying on....and it amounts to this? A probable flat close? Well...there's next week? The beginning of the dog days of August.....oh joy can I STAND the excitement? Heh!
Why Science (with da big S) only matters when our Politico's, or religious "wise men," tell us it matters of course. And of course we all (must) bow and genuflect to that elitist group; a group who spend BILLIONS to maintain their place in the power hierarchy because....well....because they have our BEST interests at heart they really do! HEH!
(By the way the above is a politically agnostic statement. One meant only to point out that all sides pick and choose facts according to their own private/public dictates. Do yerself a favor and think for yerself)
Hft: Want? WANT? They ARE. ;-)
Today's one of those days where a very old song runs thru my head...and I paraphrase...."To everything churn, churn, there is a season churn, churn, churn." Today the machines are in the "let's make some butter" mode. ;-)
Yup....bailed on that 3rd tranche just under $19 on the bounce since when I trade I look for +10pennies whenever possible. And with the bid now south of $18.70 I'm looking for a re-entry. The bid is now roughly back at the top of Mondays opening gap...and I'm an adherent to gap theory....especially in cases like this. The intraday game has been totally controlled and dominated by the sell side game....so I look for that gap to be filled in some measure....in effect the attempt is to negatve everything (positive) that occurred. Or some would say.....there's a intermediate term double bottom test off lows setting up. Let's see if it plays out that way...bid $18.71.
By the way...if today IS a tactical sell/short side game being run then I'd look for a final hour surge from here just on the "bird-n-hand" aspects of the sell side covering/squaring their positions ahead of the week-end. But let's seeeee....
Nest, et.al.: OT but in watching the guy I swear that CNBC talking head Rick Santelli better mind his med's....he's gonna have an embolism on the air one day the way he rants about stuff....especially stuff outside his area of expertise. ;-)
Grabbed a third tranche at just south of $18.87. 3 tranches at staggered levels. This one is laughable oversold here.....but I'll admit the opposing opinion could be "Oh yeah? Oversold? Says who?" ;-)
And just like that YANK! Another ~1M shares hammered the bid to $18.92. On the intraday 30 minute chart it's showing ~16M shares sold on total volume of ~18.5M. Hard for any bid to hold up under such pressure....no way around this...down almost a buck....fugly...
HA! Luv it! Actually I keeep thinkg Master is eyeing that Wed upside gap. I'm expectin' him to go yank da Pooch to the ~$17.85 area....just because he can. ;-) But I'll settle for your $18.04. I'm with Nest in thinking there's little reason for the sell side game being seen today....but there it is so that's what it is....the saving grace (I suppose) is there doesn't seem quite the interesting in smashing Poochies nose into the floor. It all seems more just a "hold 'em in check for now" tactical game being played....
But what do I know? It's Friday and I keep being distracted by one of those picture-perfect outside days.. I wanna....I wanna....I wanna go outside and PLAY! ;-)
Yes. But don't hold them accountable necessarily. All data says that something like 75% of ALL action...and that's ALL action MARKET-WIDE, is HFT/Algo/Machine. All of it. Think about THAT in relation to the overall market. So we humans....we humans may program the machines....but they, in turn, are running right the hell over the human players of the game....in a turn of phrase....this ain't yer grand-daddy's game no mo'.....
Hard to say where this is going, though down (for the day) is clear. The bid is being wagged all over the place in quick up/down pulses here at ~$19.14. The machines keep pulsing it looking to suck out any/all buy/sell action. It's starting to get frothy....which might be a consequence of being at that earlier downtrend line I mentioned? But I don't have the ego to presume the sell side is actually tracking along with comparable metrics....I just go off the ation. in any case I'm watching how this area gets played....waiting on the set-up to signal a bounce from here or not. If not I expect $19 to get tested...and if that breaks the bid will probably gravitate (quickly) to the mid $18.80's as my chart shows that area as support...why is that? It's about where the bid ended up dancing after the bid got crushed back on ~June 25.
Bid now $19.10.
Okay....machines have waltzed the bid to $19.18 and are still keeping the ask stacked high while hammering the bid. Anyone who trades recognizes this is just the usual tactical game being employed by the sell side machinery. They're well into overshoot territory (bid just sunk to $19.08)....so I'm nibbling a second tranche at $19.08.....on the intraday 5 minute chart it's been a clear case of sell side dominance....still no clear evidence of a turn setting up but I've always been lousy at calling tops/bottoms. Let's see how this second tranche plays out...
Cheetah: Dead money? What's that? ;-)
I jest...but the art of this game is much like that old Kenny Rogers song line...."you's gots to know when to fold 'em."
Or to my mind let your winners run, and cut your losers quickly. This is, of course, a traders point of view.
Anyway....I'll side with the buy side enthusiasts from the long term perspective. The $5 to +$35 run proved the perspective was correct (at the time of $5). But I'm rational enough to recognize that's a fantasist game...the very long game that is.....at least for now.....so I pull profits even from longer term positions when it's clear a non-sustaining big pop has occurred. This ain't to say the future ain't bright. It could be. The jaw-boning is wonderful but the reality is execution results are waaay out over a year. So take yer profits and wait on the settle-back to re-enter is the better tactic to play.