I was with you on the thinking going into the final 30. But the action from there into close...especially in the final 15 minutes, made a joke of that thinking. It closed ab $13.88...effectively at the LOD. And beneath $13.90 support. Which sets up further retrenchment back into that $13 to $13.75 channel I mentioned earlier. Indeed if you do a Fib retracement eval from the recent low areas of ~$11.70 to the high area of late, ~$15.15/.20 you'll see the 38.2% retracement line sits smack on that $13.75. So to my mind that's Masters intent...to take the Pooch down to that line and test it. If it fails there will probably be continued yankage back to the $13.teens. That's the downside...the upside? We've seen the upside. We've seen that Pooch is not be allowed north of it. And that's the ~$15.15 area....so that's the binary choice...and since this is BAC...and this is the Finny's....I think the odds on the coin flip favor continuing in the current direction, down.
Enjoy the week-end. Should we now retreat to the bar (heh) and turn this thread over to the children until Monday? Yeah...why not... ;-)
Zgold: It's the logic of the trade. No more. No less. We're all adults here. I presume everyone reading recognizes this. I simply post my thoughts on what I'm seeing. The truth of it; its validity, can only be determined with time. And I'm okay with that. ;-)
Bid $13.90. Close is setting up to be ugly. I expect it to close at the LOD...the selling action looks identical to the way it looked back in mid-January. Strong, relentless, and overwhelming (of the bid). Wave after wave after wave....did this company declare BK or something?
The only thing keeping me in this game at this juncture, because I've already hit my "nut" for the year...not bragging...just got lucky....the only thing keeping me really focused is a fair number of sell side plays I've got open in a variety of biggies I see as ripe for being...plucked.
I think that's the LOD. Bid at .94 but that ask continues to overhang with a show ~3 to 1 larger than anything the bid shows. It's been that way all day long. Indeed...the last few sessions. The Pooch is reluctant to be pushed further south...but when Master keeps hitting him with boat-anchors there's not much choice. I'm still hoping for a closing surge to put the bid back to the high $13's...but with it currently at $13.91 it's not looking good. If it closes south of $13.90 then I expect Master will return the Pooch yet again to that ~$13 to ~$13.75 channel for the next round of churn....this feels like mid January all over again. It is messy out there with very little to redeem a buy side attitude....and we're now entering summer....which doesn't bode well for this equity, amongst others, doing anything for the next couple of months....
Dow off over 100pts. S&P off over 11pts. Both indexes are weak and looking for more downside. Those retail #'s might say one thing..but have you been tracking that sectors participants and their earnings? Their earnings are lousy....so there's disconnect going on in that area between the propaganda being promulgated and the earnings reality of the players. As for the why on BAC the answer is easy. You're looking at an equity with a +10B float....that's +10 BILLION float. And it averages a daily volume of...what....+50M shares? You might as well be ringing the dinner bell for all the HFT/Algo/Machine trading set over such as that....they are all over this paper like fleas on a....Pooch....and this will never change so long as things remain as they are....
Speaking of fleas...bid $13.93 and setting up to break-down back south of $13.90...again...
Dow off over 90 pts again, too. And the S&P is off over 9pts. It's simply a lousy "tape." Here are my thoughts...if the $13.90 line breaks then this sets up the bid to be walked back into the mid to low $13's....and since we all recognize how much Master loves those teens what're the odds of $13.teens next week? I tend to see this as a low percentage probability....but this sector is just not loved.....and I suspect it won't be for the remainder of this year and probably well along the way to 2020....I've seen this sort of thing before...and sentiments do not change quickly....in this case it could be a generation....but that's just me being gloomy. Meanwhile...my .95 bid just got hit....bid now $13.94...off over 1.3% which means there is still room for further walk-down given its tendency to go on those ~2% jaunts (both up and down) when so engaged....
Yesterday the intraday range was $14.05 to $14.45. Today my WAG is the range will be $14.35 to $13.95....a 10 penny differential. Why not? The action against the bid is identical to yesterday; with the sell side dominating the conversation....the buy side is barely at the table...just laying back letting the selling take the Pooch south. Bid $13.97.
The Pooch just can't get out of its own way. But as usual it's not just the Pooch. Pull up an intraday chart of C, or JPM, or the ETF XLF, or GS. Overlay their charts on top of each other. They're dam near identical. So what we've got here is just a continuing manifestation of how little liked the sector is by the market. From the way the options look, juxtaposed against the real-time action...my WAG is Master will close this animal, today, slight south of $14. My WAG? How does $13.98 sound?
Ummm....actually...just in referencing history one could be forgive for thinking that it's the Neo-con's the ladies should be concerned with....you'd think that when it comes to sex and money the Dem's would be on the former while the neo-con's on the latter. The truth seems to be just the opposite. That's a paraphrase of a quote from one Larry Flynt of Hustler.
;-) But just to note one day of bounce do not a complete resolution to the downside energy make (has that for a bit of Yoda speak? Heh). A few days of this sort of consolidative action is needed. I do think the bid holding north of that older uptrend line now sitting at ~$9.25 is telling us something...but as always we'll only know its certainty with time. Don't'cha just luv this game?
BAC: On this we agree. Or at least I'm positioning my trades from the vantage point of the buy side and not the sell. Anything less than $14.10 seems to be a "gimmee!" Anything north of ~$14.35...for now...is sell sell SELL! But if it can get north of .35 on volume...hell..let's make that .50...then the next stop would be a return to the $15 zone. But not this week. After that...well....$15 represents a line it has not been north of size early January, when it was in the midst of being hammered south. I doubt it gets north of it easily....and we all know how much the machines love to churn this thing....not that I'm complaining...mind you. ;-)
Post earnings session 4 is usually more indicative and instructive of the overall market attitude regarding the merit of the paper. So far it has unfolded in almost classic fashion. There was the earnings news...which wasn't bad...along with the recognition, by the hot, or in keeping with a certain media title, Fast, Money, that "that's it for the next few months." Typically they vote adios, and that's what they did...they voted their feet which usually fuels a certain amount of "let#$%$ the stops" action. And so the last 3 sessions have unfolded. Just to be clear, this is all just my experential WAG on the last 3 sessions. Today is a bit different...and the action reflects it. I'm not saying it's all moonbeams, unicorns and "to the moon." Far from it. It's more to say that if you're playing the buy side game, longer term....this area of the single digits just might represent compelling value? Just some thoughts.
I did the same thing, but this time I did not short the inevitable yank like I did yesterday. This is the 3rd session in a row where the opening pop is met with a equal and opposite YANK...and I thought maybe 3rd time is the charm and the Pooch might be allowed to stay on the upside. Nah....what was I thinking? It seems Master is tracking a shorter term downtrend line I've got from the ~$15.04 back on April 28...he's not letting the Poochie get north of it...and today it sits at...~$14.34.
But that's okay...I reopened my buy side tranches, once again, a bit south of $14.10 (~$14.08 overall). I figure to sell them at, or close to, that downtrend line....see the churn pattern....play the churn pattern. Bid now $11.10
Hey..I care less about his taxes. It's a non-issue to me. It's more about his reaction to the queries. Face it...if he can release his taxes to the State gaming authorities what, exactly, is the issue with doing so now, eh? What...his entourage might discover his "hands" ain't as big as he claims? ;-) And in the world of Plutocrats size IS important ain't it? (VBG)
Anyway...back to more pertinent subjects...have you noticed that Master has been allowing the Pooch to pop upwards first thing...after which he YANKS the mutt straight back into the teens? This is the 3rd session running where he has done this. I smell a pattern? Heh!
The IRS states it unlikely they did "years in a row" against any citizen. Trump claims otherwise. Geee...I wonder who's telling the truth? Kind'a like that 'ol riddle about confronting two liars and asking them which one is telling the truth? HEH! Anyway....this kefluffle is simply being accentuated by the Trumpster. How so? Well....I'll leave aside the why and simply look at the facts. Trump has handed over tax returns in the midst of audits before -- to state gambling officials in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, as part of the process of seeking casino licenses in those states. So his argument doesn't work does it?
But leaving all of that aside I'm not surprised by any "multiplicity" of audits. The guy's company's have been in/out/in/out of BK how many times? I'm sure the citizens of Atlantic City, NJ can tell you (HEH). I suspect his personal tax returns are a veritable accountants mine-field as a consequence...
LOL! True enuf. Nobody works for free and this ain't the "Star Trek, Next Generation" era where money is an irrelevancy. Everyone works for the money because it allows you to eat. Heh! Anyway....what I'd be more curious to know is their compensation. They must have a base pay, yes? What's the compensation? What's the merit increases, etc.. I'm sure you know the drill...how much of their compensation might be tied to stock merits and such? That, THAT, would be instructive wouldn't it?
Juuuust saying....meanwhile...today is post-earnings session # 4. The ~3 day post-earnings window of riot and mayhem is now closed....let's see if it translates in the fashion I'm mentioned in other postings. Meaning? Meaning yesterday showed a test of longer term uptrend line support (from the ~$3.15 level of June, 2011), and it - so far - bounced off it in positive fashion. Where does that line sit, today, so as to monitor for my WAG's efficacy? ~$9.25. Let's see what happens.