Definitely there was buying into close. I'm sure a percentage of it was short covering ahead of earnings. If they ain't covering then they're crazy. This ain't to say the bid's going up tomorrow. Only that discretion is always the better part of valor when profits are on the line. That said, there was probably some long sided "leveling up" going on, too. Whether this is wise or not will be determined in about 15hrs...
Gotelk: Who benefits? I haven't a clue. ;-) But I don't ascribe nefarious or evil intent to the run-up witnessed this AM. I tend to think of it more along the lines of shorts holding nice gains from ~$18 who, in watching the bid move upward, accentuated the rise by closing their positions into it. (Disclosure I bailed on my yesterday "get" at $15.80 at $16.30 on the bird-n-hand theory.) When it got toppy (on an intraday basis) the bid rolled and fell....but so, too, did the sector and the overall markets (the chattering classes were all a'chatter saying "we're still correcting correcting correcting.."). So between this aspect and the reality of chairs being arranged due to upcoming earnings I'm not surprised the bid is being walked all over the place (the bid just went from ~$15.96 to $16.07 in 2 minutes).
As for earnings I'm sitting flat and fat on my hands for this one. The bid won't be running away so there's no reason to chase. I'm quite positive on BAC thru end of 2014 and into 2015, but for now I want clarity before sitting back down at the BAC gaming table. (Further disclosure - I've a very old long term basket in BAC that goes back to less than $5 - so consider the my comments accordingly).
Bid now $16.13 (the markets and BAC's bid are moving in equally crazy fashion right now).
Bid at $16.08. Bid is....for lack of a better word....slippery...but with a bit of upside pressure under it.....My WAG is the bid will float higher just because anybody who's short won't be looking to double down or gamble into earnings. Some are probably looking at nice gains (from the ~$18) they'd be foolish not to lock down.....one can always go back in after earnings.
Bid now $16.10.
Yah...nice recovery into close indeed. The entire market reboiunded from an earlier p/b so BAC floated accordingly. So I'm a bit less enthused. We need to string a few sessions like this together...one day do not a trend-reversal make...though it do make for potential indications.... ;-)
Samms: You get "the snaps" for the good call. ;-) Bid now $15.80. Looks like BAC will close flat if it's lucky. $16 is the resistance line. I grabbed another tranche here at .80. The sell side went to full assault on bid mode just a bit before the final hour, and I'd be surprised if the bid recovers here. The only interesting aspect is it's usually in the final 15/30 minutes of the session that this attack has been initiated. Let's see if that means anything (probably not).
Codi: Yep...$16 seems to be the line. Hey...at least it's up? ;-)
As for MU....I went long a trade this AM at the ~$21.60 level so I'm liking its current bid of $22.07. Now watching it closely though...this IS MU we're talking about after all. Current stop just south of $22. Regardless, on a 5 day chart I'd look for a little sideways action here at the current bid area, just as a potential reverse HnS set-up setting up....If it does then I'd look for it to run to $25.03 downtrend line (from March 11). That line will sit at ~22.50 at close of day. I'm not saying it'll do this today...but that's the upside target it might hit over the next couple of days. Then again...since this is MU it could do it today or....never? Earnings and guidance will set up the next few months me thinks...
Bid $16.02. Looks like the $16 line is the mambo line? Here we go below it. Here we go above it. Here we go dancin' on it. It is what it is. At least my $47.05 "get" in C is looking good as their bid is...$47.65. Maybe BAC will do something similar come earnings day? ;-)
Samms: I'd be surprised to see Friday's lows broken...but won't be surprised by a goodly percentage of the opening gap being filled. Indeed, the bid just touched $15.92 and is weakly bouncing...now .96. I do expect Poochie to struggle because the damage Master has done the last ~12 sessions cannot be quickly, or easily, overcome. (I just bought some C a few minutes ago at ~$47.05...it's now at .28). That said....trend reversals are usually preceded by a period of "frothiness" (my term). There's a period of sideways up/down/all around churn while supply/demand balances out and the next phase sets up. My WAG is this is what BAC, and the sector, is now entering. This could go on for a time and makes for some good trading if you can catch the churn correctly to your tactical play. Else it's also a good place to build intermediate term positions in accordance with the change in trend direction....regardless...expect a high level of chaotic play.
Bid now $16.
BAC is back trading more or less in lock-step with C's action (on the intraday). There's just enough of a sell side cap being maintained on the ask to mitigate the buy side pressure....there's been no attempt (yet) to dive the bid in a hard fashion back to Friday's lows....but C's bid is now being attacked (just dropped to $47.18 from the .30's)...and BAC's bid fell back, too, to $16.02. So overall the action is still being dictated by the sell side more than the buy. To me this looks more like short covering and such than true buying....not surprising given the last 10 sessions or so. We won't have a true read on the buying until earnings is out there for all to see. Just mo, of course...
Okay....popped the open now walking it back down....which is usually why I sit out the first 30 minutes if I didn't have a set-up in place from the prior session. The sell side team used ~2M shares to dive the bid from ~$16.15 to $16. Bid now $15.98 and the sell side tactic seen the last 15 sessions (or so) is now fully engaged...My WAG is the set-up is to close the opening gap from ~$15.77 or so. Even if I'm nibbling here with expectations that BAC will perform something like C post earnings...have another bid down in the mid-$15.80's in case the mentioned set-up gets fulfilled. Bid now $16.
Indeed. Citi saved Poochie another strangling by Master. At least...so far. Long day ahead yet so let's see how it plays out. Bid now $16.11.
Bid closed $21.13. Well for a while there it looked like it might hit my WAG....or come close...but no cigar. In the final 10 minutes it looks like a buy program kicked in and messed with my prognostication. Naz managed a squeaker close straight up at 4K....maaaybe 3999 (funny how that works sometimes, eh?). In any case it ain't a good sign (for the Naz)....which I'm sure the chattering classes will spend the week-end pontificating on the badness of it doing this....