Fragile: Firstly....jeeez....I had to go "4 pages deep" before I found this...all the prior pages are "ignores" which, I suppose, means the mice have been about their usual OT chatter, eh? ;-) Anyway...as Lan2 said I took some time, got away from everything.....went one day to a fantastic water-park with some young ones...and when I say fantastic I mean one not designed by legal...one of the first ones made back in the...oh....1970's? It sprawls all over the side of a mountain...you can jump off cliffs into pools...same with some tarzan swings....plus all kinds of looping water raceways, huge wave pool, etc.. The young ones had a great time and Highlow came away (the next day) feeling parts of the body I hadn't felt in some time (heh). The rest of the time was spent in amongst dah trees and green sans electronics. It was great.
Anyway..yah...from what I can initially see it appears the equity has, or may have, reached an equilibrium. There's been the initial pop. Then subsequent p/b to a possible support zone of ~$6...so now it gets interesting. It's the beginning of a new month, vacations are for the most part over, and so the focus returns (?). My first line of resistance is $16.10 as that's the bottom of the Aug 28 downside gap. From $16.10 to $16.20 is (what I call) a "molasses zone" thru which the bid will need to plod. That will set up a possible run back to strong resistance at ~$16.50....that said...should Master prove to still be in "holding Poochie close" mode I'm watching $16. If it fails then Master could pull Poochie down to the ~$15.75 area which is about the top of the Aug 21 surge. 'Course....I don't look for either possibility to play out in one day...remember....Poochie is a plodder....but those are the two set-ups I'm watching...
Oldstar: Doing that would be cutting your own throat in the "court of popular (business) opinion" me thinks. And garner your opponents (those cheaper vendors) a marketing opportunity that would not be overlooked.
That said, KG I'm not sure there's any direct way to get at your answer, though I'd be interested in seeing what the SA msg bd comes back with. I seems logical that they'd use their own DRAM, and such, in their own products. Bloomberg noted this April 2013 about the (then) looming shortage:
"Part of Samsung’s dilemma with mobile DRAM is its own success in making mobiles, which is the biggest profit driver at the company. Telecommunications contributed 67 percent of operating income in 2012, compared with 14 percent for chips and 11 percent for liquid crystal displays, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. "
I think one could safely presume Sammy is using their own inside those mobiles....at least to a goodly percentage minus pre-established commits. But....also.....consider, too, the loose-knit nature of conglomerates like Sammy. Sometimes the individual units are very much in competition with each other. In any case I thinkwhere this sector is concerned the rise of the Oligarchic structure is less a function of whose DRAM's, etc., are in whose products and more a function of the huge barriers to entry (by others) that have arisen as memory has exploded in size. The fab's that make 'em....they ain't cheap...and the ever increasing complexity in building them guarantees they'll not be getting cheaper, either...
Just some thoughts.
But then again....da machines...they never sleep...they never go on vacation.....and we all know the overwhelming percentage of the volume is driven by them....so.....who knows.
Everyone (reading) enjoy the holiday and long week-end....we now release the thread back to all the OT politico stuff, which I expect to be prevalent seeing as how, surprise surprise, Putin is being....Putin... ;-)
I just had to see how this thing closes...and sure enough with the ask showing +1.2M and the $16.01 bid fading I expect $16 will close it. This sets up game-playing tomorrow south of that line, with a resultant close maybe at this same line. But it'll be a weird one 'cause most will be on vacation, volume will be light, so it'll be hard to gauge. As you say, when everyone comes back next week there'.. be a better read.
Bid closes $16.01....
Huck: LOL! Hey don't get me wrong. I'm just calling out what I'm seeing, which could be wrong....taking the longer view it's just some information that may prove pertinent (or not) to your risk/analysis stance. Or maybe I'm just thinking too much "out loud?" ;-)
No need to panic or take any bait. Just ride it out longer term. I just find it tactically interesting to (obsessively? Heh) follow the intraday action....by years end I still think $18 area is "doable," but we need to see the current intraday character of the action shift a bit first....One step at a time, eh?
Meanwhile that's about it for me for the week. Got some plans lined up for the holiday (Labor Day) week-end and I think I'll kick it all off early....sometimes it's good to just push back, unplug from all the electronics and enjoy life sans all of it (the electronics)....in other words....all work and no play does not a good Highlow make. ;-)
Bid $16. Remarkably consistent tactical action by the sell side....there will probably be a small bounce setting up the next push-down to the sub-$16 zone. Again..watch how the ask side sets it all up....
Lan2. Yup (for me). Be mindful, though, that if it does so it's well into that aforementioned ~$15.75 to ~$16 "mush zone." (For lack of a better descriptor) The possibility of further slippage (into end of week) down to ~$15.75 cannot be discounted....which interestingly enough would take it back to a former downtrend line (of mine) that I drew off the former high area of ~$16.30 of Aug 22 with the second point on that line (same day) being ~$16.20. That line sits right now at ~$15.75. If it does so that'll amount to a total wash-out and set-up for some upside.....however it plays it's clear that it's going to take time for ~$16.50 to be again challenged, much less be broken....
Bid $16.02 and under heavy pressure. It's about to break...and STILL the ask show overhanges....which continues to be the "tell."
By the way...what's going on is nothing necessarily specific to BAC....more to the sector as a whole. Pull up a TA chart of XLF, C, BAC, et.al. They almost overlay each other (so I suspect the XLF, as a composite for the group, is the chief culprit). BAC is just more....accentuated than the rest due to its churning character...
Just some thoughts. Bid $16.02 and still under pressure..
Second push (down) occuring off the release to ~$16.07. This is also the third session in a row that the sell side tactical game has been in effect. Bid now $16.02 and effectively back at, close to below, the DoJ decision bid. It's well oversold here but the name of Masters game (for now) appears to be "Take Poochie sub-$16."
And he'll do it, too. He always does....and allowing for a continuation in the character of the intraday so far revealed my WAG is the Poochie is being set-up to visit the low $15.90's....at least...that's about where I'm now waving another bid.
Okay first (of the day?) downside push looks to be completing what with the bid hitting $16.04. Now at .05 but watch the way the ask show is still being used to overhang the bid. It's really how the ask performs (for now) that is the continuing "tell" for me in determining what's "afoot." And so far it's telling me the sell side game is still engaged...so far the volume for the day is saying "above average" though it could change. It doesn't surprise me because the BOT's use the same Fib metric's (plus many others I'm sure) so it shouldn't surprise that pivoting off those metric's would be characterized by "pulses" in volume and such. Just all part of the way the game is these days....you play at the table dominated by the BOT's you'd best understand what "motivates" them.....bid $16.07.
Nothing wrong, per se. The sector is just following the market. That plus it's had a few recent up sessions that are probably be consolidated. But the volume is "vacation" low so there's not much, imo, to be concerned about. Low volume days always tend to be dominated by the sell side, unless there's something specific to an equity situation.....say like.....GILD or sumthin' like that. And we certainly do not have THAT kind of energy focus on the financial sector much less on BAC. It is what it is. Last sale $16.10 and the tactical sell side game of a larger ask (show) overhang is already in effect...albeit small by intra-session standards....I expect this is a "tell" that the equity is going to $16. Hmmmmm......gotta run around and see how the Options are being gamed.... ;-)
The low volume take-down will probably continue today. It'll most likely follow the overall market....which, so far, looks to be down (again on low volume). I suspect Master is gonna take Poochie to $16 to close out the week overall "doing the dirty" to those $16 options.
So...as I'd mentioned earlier...from my point of view what to look for that would be indicative/instructive of more downside? Well...run the fib's from the ~$15.00 line, which is where it was before the DoJ news surged the bid, to Monday's ~$16.45 high area. Look at where the 38.2% retracement level sits. It sits at ~$16.10. That's the mark to watch. Interestingly enough that's almost exactly where Master has Poochie right now this very second (heh). If it breaks then the slide will probably continue, possibly back south of $16. If it breaks south of $16 my WAG would be it'll try to bottom out in the low side of that "soft" ~$15.75 to $16 zone. That's the zone I'm tracking to really jump in for an intermediate term (meaning thru end of year) trade. If not, then watch for a resumption of trend, especially if $16.25 gets broken (back on top of) with volume.
But if the last couple of sessions haven't made it abundantly clear there will probably be no fast movement in either direction. Consider only this basic fact. The equity action, the total volume, is much akin to the overall market volume. By that I mean most analysis have determined that upwards of what...75% (or more) of total volume is HFT/Algo churn? 75%. Think about that in the context of this equity. It means the majority of the action you see has little to no direct bearing on the equity/company fundamentals. It's driven by the desire for churn and all that it means to the churners. The game is different these days than from old. You must adjust your tactical game accordingly..
Just some thoughts.
Yup....but Master does this with da Pooch. Go back and look at the Aug. 19/20 and you'll see a similar thing. I bit down on a trading tranche at ~$16.15 'cause the set-up's I tracked indicated a vastly oversold situation (on the two day chart). I didn't wait for sub $16.10. Here's the thing....less than 10 sessions back the bid was threatening to go south of $15.15, indeed $15. Now it's ended the day at $16.20. That ain't bad. Master is simply grinding the bid back down because with this equity that is what Master does. But overall the bias is still positive. Master is just playing the HFT/Algo game...it's what machines do. So...what to look for that would be indicative of more downside? Well...run the fib's from the ~$15.00 line, which is where it was before the DoJ news surged the bid, to Monday's ~$16.45 high area. Look at where the 38.2% retracement level sits. It sits at ~$16.10. That's the mark to watch. If it breaks then the slide will continue, probably back south of $16. If not, then watch for a resumption of trend, especially if $16.25 gets broken (back on top of) with volume. That's the set-up. The question, as always, is what will Master actually do? We'll have to watch and see.
But regardless.....from the viewpoint of end of first quarter 2015 this is just noise...hopefully. ;-)
Well it's definitely overbought on a 10day chart....but this thing is stair-stepping higher and higher. Higher highs and higher lows almost every day. I won't stand in front of this train, from a tactical short perspective, until the set-up signals a change in trend. And right now no change seems imminent. In other words...ride the wave (dude - heh), ride the wave as far as you can.
Fragile: Bid continues to endures a sell side pounding here at $16.23. My WAG is Master is setting Poochie up to go back into the $16.teens. There has been zero change in the sell side tactic of continually overhanging the bid with +500K shares while hitting the bid or between the spread with all the action. In effect the overhang ask is there just as a place-marker...a "scare the bid further downward" standard operational tactic. It's one that.....just happens to work...especially on a low-volume day (for BAC) like today. I'm waving a bid down just south of $16.10 because I expect a revisit to the $16.teens to occur...and when such as this occurs it almost always results in an overshoot before a bounce-back. By the way, none of this alters my longer term positive outlook....only that until circumstances change there is zero need to chase this equity. The sell side game Master is running continues to dominate character of the intraday.
Bid now $16.22 and continuing to absorb the action. On the intraday I see an operational change only when the bid breaks back on top of a intraday downtrend line I established at ~$16.46 with its second point at ~$16.37. The bid is being kept under that line...if it does so into close then the best case closing scenario for the bid is ~$16.25.
Go with waiting on the cheaper option. Set (in your mind) your best/worse pricing and track the bid accordingly. I continue to maintain being patient with this equity is the best course. Master remains in control, and Poochie ain't about to go running away from you.....in all honesty I don't really ever expect this situation to change, though longer term there's plenty of upside potential. There's just too many outstanding shares (float), and the HFT's, Algo's and the rest are like ticks firmly buried in Poochies ear....you'll not be gettin' 'em out short of a big reverse split or changes in the basic transactional policies of the institutions that, with their rebates and such, allow such a mess to continue to control and dictate the action....
But it is what it is. All just my 2pennies worth, of course. Bid $16.27.
Yeppers. Back to the classic sell side tactic. If you want an education on controlled selling and pressure just watch the way the ask is being managed against the bid. It's a masterful performance piece you'll be watching....
From what I'm seeing of what's going on with the ask on the intraday (classic tactical selling is engaged) I'd say the bid is more likely to test $16.20 than .40. Bid $16.27, under continuing pressure and that show on the ask keeps overhanging....