"Sell off holdings now....(and such)."
Nah...I've already taken profits/losses on all my positions that I deem suitable for such. I'm looking for the undervalued situations that have suffered from the usual end of year tax loss "adjustments." These usually occur in November....I also look for window-dressing over-valued situations, too. I look for outliers....set-ups to launch me to my 2015 profit targets....it's weird but.....and I've been playing this game for a goodly number of years at this point....but the majority of the time I've found I garner a significant percentage of my yearly target in the first quarter to first half of the year....and then the remainder of the time is spent just making sure I don't give it all back......errrr.....so to speak. ;-)
Bid $17.11....looks like Master is relaxing the hold on da Pooch?
Nah...been around...just low key here.....tending other fires (so to speak). There's really not too much more to say about BAC right now.....to me it's in a holding chug and churn pattern....so until this breaks, one way or the other...well....not much more to be said/done. But the nice thing about this game is there's a universe of other possibilities "out there." So while monitoring here I can (go) play other "tables." ;-) And at this time of year I'm all about setting things up for the year to come....snuffling around for the potential plays, etc..
Meanwhile....bid $17.08....looks like it's trying to get back into the $17.teens....let's see if it does so or if Master does a closing yank...
Mike: You say....
"The ONLY thing charts are good for is to predict behavior..Part of that behavior self fulfills on charts most people look at..Its the whole point of TA. But some think TA is its own entity making trades on its own I suppose. "
Yah...indeed...in a very real sense (to me) TA is all about human behavior. Strictly scientfically speaking there's absolutely no reason to infer that once a bid hits some level/line 'X' that it should do pattern 'Y." None, zip, nada. It's all prognosticating human behavior...the herd in action. Something that is inherently unpredictable.
So...to the extent we all agree on the metrics of TA it then becomes....a self-fulfilling prophecy because we all key off the same metrics. We even program our servile machines along the same lines. Funny the human animal is sometimes. It's that lack of recognition of this "fact" that makes those who worship exclusively at the TA altar so flawed (sometimes) with their prognostications . They take it as gospel when it isn't. They get lost and don't see the forest for the trees (so to speak).
I'm not being overly critical about this because I, like others, use it because....well....when you're making your decisions you've got to hang yer hat on SOMETHING!? I prefer TA to chicken entrails. ;-) But...my only caution as it relates to MU and this reverse HnS...is that head...it's too pointy....a more rounded head...meaning more time spent basing/consolidation of the pattern....would give it more legitimacy...to me. Pointy is....well...like pointy headed people (heh).....not to be trusted as much.
But...all that digression and such.....let's see what the markets think....we're in the final hour and the bid is at.....$34.25...looks good....closing here or better would be a nice harbinger for next week. Oh....I'm holding a open trading position in MU...I got some on the afternoon p/b to sub $34.10 so consider the source when reading my WAG posting.
Well the market so far chug and churned the bid north of $17.15, now chugging and churning it back to $17? Bid $17.07 and under the usual sell side tactical assault....
KG: Well....if The Street says there's a reverse HnS setting up then it just HAS to be true?! ;-)
Anyway....I suppose if I looked at a 3 month day chart, squinted me eyes reeeal hard and had a couple three shots of jack daniels in me then I could see such a pattern. Neckline appears to be at ~$34 with a pointy head down to ~$26.50 in between 'em. It's a fugly looking one, though, principally because I don't like to see HnS formations with such heads.....being more rounded is better. But...this is why I come down firmly on the side of saying all TA is art, not science. Perceived patterns are in the eye of the (hic!) beholder.
That said I's gots to allow that the pattern may be setting up. Its outline follows the classic prescription...excepting that head. The "right" shoulder, which has been setting up off the bounce from ~$26.50...got to about ~$33.75 then pulled back again....and a classic aspect of HnS's is the follow-along shoulder, in this case the right one, tends to be lower than the first shoulder. So....right shoulder has formed....today may be the beginnings of a spring off of it. If so I'd expect it to spring upwards to a level akin to the "depth" established by the head from that right shoulder. That would amount to a spring of.....what.....$7.50?? Which would mean a target line of ~$41 from current pps....maybe a buck lower if you use yesterday as a gauge.
Don't know the truth of this WAG of mine...but the stoch's, which have curled back up a bit by way of a buy signal, allow for a spring of some duration. Bottom line....glad I didn't short yesterday...which is what I was mulling....and the remainder of the year just became a lot more intriguing....let's see if 'ol Lucy is setting Charlie up again or not.....
Just my 2pennies worth...bid now $34..09
$33.40 to $33.75 is a tough zone...it can't seem to get north of it. In the last 30 days (or so) it's been in this zone......what......6 times? And the stoch's on the 30day chart are screaming overbought (now). I don't have high confidence that Lucy is gonna let Charlie move the ball much further north from here (bid at $33.25). But...by the same token....I don't have a real solid short side set-up signal, either. So....when confronted by this situation all I can say is...."smoke 'em if you like 'em....no clear set-ups yet...!" ;-)
Stickboy. Margin is wonderful. Margin is a beaaaauooootiful thing. Margin will snap yer head off'a your shoulders faster than you can blink an eye if you let greed overwhelm your intellect. Most new investors/traders...which is what it sounds like you are....go broke in the first year or so of playing this game. The typical reason? Using margin too extensively and too....deeply....meaning as a percentage of yer "book.":
So.....margin is good...margin is GREAT......if cautiously used....try to never use any more than....ohhhh.....depending on the size/depth of yer wallet....20% of your wallets value. Because you can never be sure, when using it for those "wide out" moments you mention...that you might have completely misjudged the situation and find that what was supposed to be a trade has suddenly become an investment....so......remember...you've worked hard to build that cash....don't go losing it stupidly....
Just some random thoughts while watching MU and trying to determine if a play on the dark side (short) here at $33.20 is the percentage play or not.....
tfamily: "...it is all about the 10/yr yield..." Agreed...mostly....which means smoke 'em if you like 'em.....the bid aint going anywhere fast anytime soon. Did I mention chug and churn? ;-)
Nest: One would think. But it seems Master thinks otherwise....though he ain't exactly driving Pooshie into the ground now......bid $16.98. More like deepening a rut is more the truth of it.....chug and churning along....
Joey: I tend to agree. This game is all about perception.....and right now there's not good visibility in regard to the scripts. Yes the analytical community can be gushing hearts and roses. Yes all the tangential data is good. But it ain't nailed down. You take this and juxtapose it against the probable fear that the rest of the planet will do what the French have done...mandate pricing reductions. That's the big EEK mouse in the mix.....even it it's a silly one...the market will (is) react first, think later...bid now $101.01 is indicative of this EEK.
Chug and churn. Churn and chug. Monthly opt's exp tomorrow so guess what.....we have at least 1 more day of this sort of action....not that the bid is gonna launch like a rocket (or failed one) come next week. Did I mention.....chug and churn? It is what it is.....no use squealing about something you cannot effect nor control...
Wine: You could be describing institutional hedging going on between the two? When one pivots the exact opposite of the other at the same relative time that's typically an indication that sumbody is playing both sides "against the middle." Anyway even for GILD today has been a day of extreme swings. Started off diving to ~$101.10, then bouncing to ~$103.40, then stairstepped down to $101.20 and now at....$101.43...that's roughly $4.60 of movement on this roundtrip. And we ain't even gotten to 2pm yet (east coast time). Volume is about average for the day. Oh...I added another trading tranche at the ~$101.25 area.....just dancing with the machines doing the trading...
Bid $101.24....this is 4 times in 3 sessions (inclusive of this one) that the bid has hit this level....It has yet to try to fill that Tuesday upside gap from ~$100.50 to ~$101.30....but dam if it doesn't look like it wants to. It has been a straightline fall from the intraday high today.....
Aaday......errrrr.....you claim to have been playing this game since ~1995 and you've NEVER seen such as you're seeing on GILD's intraday? What....you play the game once a year? ;-)
I'd closed my earlier "get" at ~$101.10 at ~$103.....and then, kind'a sort'a to my surprise the machines take the bid straight back beneath $102. I expected a p/b...but the straight line within an hour yankage....not so much. So I'm back in at the ~102 line again....everything you see folks is being driven by machine metrics....
It sure exploded.....or rather...imploded? ;-) The machines, using ~40K sized spikes (on the minute to minute chart) have been busily walking this backwards.....bid $102.22. I've got a game going with myself right now....go back to when the bid was $116...draw a downtrend line off that mark, and use the ~$108.50 area as the second point on the line. then draw it thru today. You'll notice the bid has stayed well underneath that line. Then the morning bounce off the low took the bid straight to that line and (now) turned it back. So the bid is more or less tracking that line. My game is simple....my WAG is the bid will track it into close...which means the bid should close at, or south of, the lines closing area of $102.40. And so far...with the bid now at $102.19....it sure looks like that's the machines idea....? Bid now $102.07.....no....$102.02...that fast.....going sub $102....again...
By the way....let's play a game....that downtrend line has proven fairly strong resistance.....the bid is now back below it at $102.64. Let's play a game and see if the bid tracks it into close today. If it does I'd expect the bid to end the session at, or about, the $102.40 line..... So...shall we play a game? ;-)
Bid now $103.05. Nice bounce straight to a downtrend line from ~$116 I've maintained on my charts. Now it gets interesting....if it can get north of where it sits right now..which is ~$103....and do so on volume....well....intermediate term (down) trend reversal? Let's see where it goes from here...bid now (in the time it took to type this) $102.86).
Ha! Listen...it doesn't matter who's in power...or what party is in ascendance....nothing will change. ESPECIALLY as it relates to the OT drivel by the Trolls here and everywhere else in the Yahoo space. All I can say is thank GOD for the ignore function. The day Yahoo ceases that function is the day I abandon Yahoo as it'd make these threads completely untenable from an on-topic conversation standpoint.
Speaking of which....bid $16.98. what a surprise Master is keeping Poochies nose on/about the $17 line, eh? Heh!