On a down market day it looks like this one will close okay at the ~$3.45 line? It's coming back nicely from it's high of ~$4 set back mid/late Sept. But to my mind you can't call the "all clear until it gets back north of that line. Let's see how the remaining days (from now to Jan 1, 2014) go. 2014...can you beileve we're already that far into the 21st Century...seems like only yesterday it was a party like its 1999.....errrr...so to speak. ;-)
Who knows for sure. My main question is does the analyst or firm have a vested interest?
But regardless one has to allow for the possibility that she is right. That said it's also possible Hynix is trying to freeze their customer base ging into the new year in attempt to staunch any (further) erosion. Hey...all's fair in love, war and business, eh? Regardless, the initial reaction to MU's pps is predictable. Longer term I go back to all that's known about demand. Hynix coming on line may mitigate things a bit but demand still will exceed supply. So everyone prospers. As an investor/trader one just has to expect days like today along the way.
Bid now $22.55 after closing the gap, testing a bit further south and (for now) rebounding. Let's see if this is an actual "close gap test and go" set-up or no...bid now at .56 and testing getting back on top of an intraday downtrend line I'd drawn (earlier) off the ~$22.85 line.
Gap now officially filled. I expect overshoot in typical fashion...indeed as I type the bid just broke below .30. The intraday action is the complete opposite of the recent sessions upside characteristic. Every attempt at buying is greeting with overwhelming selling in reverse two-step fashion. The advantage today is to the sell side. Bid now .32
The $15.25 area is support when looking at a 30day chart. The bid is testing that support right now. I'm standing by waiting on the set-up signal to open a long side trade but it ain't there yet. Should support break then the ~$15 is the next line down....
PM sell side test for sure. And the bid just fades away from it. There's nothing stacked above the current .41 ask (yes the bid is at .39) so what is occurring in PM is a hallmark sell side test. I'm starting to collect the first tranche (for trading) at the ~.40 line. Will add should the bottom of the gap get tested. The bottom of the gap looks to be ~.25. Average in, average out is my tactic. By the way, that bottom of gap is also roughly speaking (on a 10 day chart) where the Nov 7 $17.61 uptrend line I've been monitoring sits...so with the bid now at .36 it looks like "the spirits" are coalescing around that line.
PM is notoriously unreliable as a predictor....but MU doing such as this is almost routinely predictable. It goes on these "jags" both up and (as currently be witnessed) down. Sometimes there's no reason (though anyone know DRAM pricing today?). Anything below .50 is, in my view, an interesting entry point but I'm waiting for the turn set-up. It could go further south just because it always well overshoots whenever it does this....again..both up and down. Consider the Dec 9 opening gap on the chart...
Looks like it's starting off down ~54pennies or ~2.3%. Hmmmm....no reason for the PM yankie so think I'll be opening a long side trading tranche here....but let's see if it breaks below .50 first...interestingly enough that's just about the top of the Dec 9 gap from ~$22.25 to ~$22.50....so if .50 breaks I expect to see that gap filled...looks like PM is trying to set that up...last sale now $22.51
You seen the chart for the last year. It's a stupendous piece of work. It's a long sides wet dream of a run. If 2014 betters it....why....I don't know what to say. Other than let's see how it actually plays out. ;-)
Codi: Ha! Sorry for the worry. It doesn't mean I don't have conviction, though me thinks you give me more credit than deserved. Only that reality trumps conviction each and every time. But the stop I've got (under $23) on a small percentage of my long cost basis has not been hit. Yet. I'll admit it's my version of a reality check. ;-) But on a longer term chart one has got to admit everything signals this one as being well overbought here so reality checks are necessary (for me). Locking end some fraction of a gain, or at least setting the threshold of your "give back" tolerance here is advisable....
It comes to this (for me). I've found it's easier to bail with a gain, discover that I was earlier and jump back in for a further ride (either up or down) than risk a "more downside" situation. You may leave some on the table during the interim, but better that than watching a gain evaporate beyond your willingness and comfort level. One has GOT to be disciplined in this game. It all comes down to the set-ups. And jumping back in is really no big deal once you get used to it.
As for traders impacting things....I dunno....they don't seem to be, in an overall sense. I keep getting the sense that there's a positioning game for further upside gains being set up right now. If you go with the presumption that all that is publicly known is largely correct then...well....big money doing some positioning would make sense... This is an "all else being equal" point of view because general economic dynamics in a larger sense must always be accounted for in all of this. You just never know how 'ol Lucy may pull that ball....
Bid almost into final hour and at $23.14.
Jck: Agreed. Could be symptomatic of the Fed Volcker ruling as it makes the sector somewhat problematic and worrisome from an investor point of view. Can't say I disagree with this worry...but by the same token as a private citizen I also have got's to say it's about freakin' time the Fed's at least put on a show of better regulation..now let's see how the market digests the mess.
And WHAT a SURPRISE. Bid back flat-lining at $15.57/58....more or less just like yesterday. Seems the market is operating off some sort of plan, eh? Heh!
Bid now .63. Movement but....jeeez....if the rest of the "racing field" (sector) is composed on thoroughbred race horses BAC is the mule on the track. Wish the jockey would pull out the long cane and wack it into its version of overdrive (heh).
When everyone "says so" that's usually when it ain't so. The market gets perverse like that sometimes. Anyway, bid a bit below $23 at $22.94....looks like some healthy consolidation....