While their release is a longer term future oriented eval my first gut reaction was they were front-running any negatively that might be expressed over the more intermediate timeframe. But they'd never do anything like thaaaaaaaat, would they? ;-)
Meanwhile, bid $13.26.
Closed all my open trades at ~$13.08. A nice bounce but well overbought. I won't flip the short side...just wait on a p/b to go back in.
I'll be happy(er) if it can end the session above the ~$12.80 line, which represents just about where the downside gap (from ~$13.08 to ~$12.80 started the tumble yesterday. In fact I'd be ecstatic should it close above $13. But I suspect that'd be asking a bit too much of the Pooch wouldn't it? Bid $12.65 with 50 minutes left in the session...
Oneway: Don't get me wrong...I can appreciate the sentiment, and wouldn't be whining at all should your scenario prove out. But you take the reality of today's geopolitical "re-set" and juxtapose it against the fact that this thing hasn't been conclusively north of $18 in 8 years....hell...pull up a 10 year chart and look...it really hasn't been able to get (back) north of $17.50....think about that in the context of the way the world looks right now....I have some serious reservations on your target.
But that said I'll allow for this...on that 10 year chart you can see what looks like a clear reverse HnS (Head and Shoulders) formation...top of head is at ~$5....shoulder line is at ~$15. Rule of thumb on such formations is the spring off the right shoulder, should it occur, will be equal to the "depth" from top of head to that shoulder line. Meaning a rough $10 potential leap....which would put the bid, as expressed right now at ~$12.46, in line with your thoughts. So there's potential....but oh boy the issues....between now and....say 2018/19? Yeeesh...
$25 in two years? A +double from current bid of $12.48, plus a sizable divy increase? All in two years time? I like the sentiment but got to say I don't see it. Not with the float it carries right now. Right now $18 by that point in time seems a stretch...
Maligned for a reason (unfortunately). There simply isn't any upside catalyst primed to ignite any upside. None from where I sit on out to the horizon. Zippo, nada, zilch. In fact the geo-political landscape looks like an active minefield of issues just primed to make a bad day for any buy side "investment" plays. So no surprise investors are giving up on the sector.
And that's usually a sign of the time to start looking for buy side, longer term positions, isn't it? ;-)
Today has been hellacious for trading so have been a bit too busy to do much posting. Nice day. It's been some time since I've seen that many babies simultaneously thrown out the window..... Anyway....it looks like, so far, yesterday was the worst of it? But you can never really tell can you? For now it looks like Master is letting the Pooch bounce at the top of the session opening gap of ~$12.18 to ~$12.40? Bid $12.44. The charts of all the sector participants are, as usual, almost identical in shape...so the whole sector continues to be churned. What a surprise? Where to from here? Who the hell knows....but I can pretty much guarantee you won't be seeing any fast upside action any time soon. The worse of it may be over, but all the issues remain and we're looking at our domestic political nuttiness starting to ramp....so the remainder of the year will probably be a churning, plodding affair. I continue to think the high for the year has already been set. And by the way...that's the high bounce off the low and NOT the level the Pooch was at on Jan 1. Which means I'm talking about ~$15.
I opened the day (for me) with this notation indicating that $13 appeared to be breaking. So I'll end it by simply noting the closing bid of the session appears to be....$12.18. I think my godson would sum this best with a pithy statement all his own. If you're long it amounts to this. BLEEECH!
And just think...we get to do this again TOMORROW! ;-)
Well I don't know from not wanting "big guberment" but I will say this....just as the 2008/9 period made plain to all the utter stupidity (sometimes) of "Masters of the Universe" Wall Street and Capitalism ideological types with their greed and avarice short-circuiting all rational thought the UK has just made clear that guberment is no more immune to such stupidity than private enterprise is. And gee...to think...we're all living in/on this same small boat we call planet Earth, too! Who do I have to speak to about emigrating....to the moon? ;-)
There's no way to know if Britain's economy will improve from this. There's no way to know at all. Hence the market reaction. But I do agree it's silly to go with all the sky is falling nonsense. As for when the buying starts....well....my WAG is smart (er) heads are in there judiciously doing just that right now. Just like they did during the nadir period of 2008/9, and the Dot.com implosion before that. And the S&L debacle before that...and the....well...you get it, eh? ;-)
Bid scrabbling at $12.19/20. Pooch finally got a bit of life...but Master is certainly make getting north of .20 a tough one. Could be he's blocking so the Pooch exhausts himself and then collapses (again) into close? Bid $12.18 and starting to falter...
Double or tripe (EMEA exposure) compared to every other bank? Really? Care to put your facts where your mouth is? ;-)
Okay...time to start some trading stair-step tactics. I'm in with a tranche at $12.07. I'll add in stair step fashion as it declines from here. These may be intermediate term positions unless the dynamic dictates otherwise...like a bounce too large to ignore in bird-in-hand fashion. Let's see what happens from here. Bid $12.10.
It's the red-headed step child syndrome. Everyone knows this equity, and company, aren't much loved by market forces and such. That has been abundantly clear over the last couple of years. So it shouldn't surprise that it would get spanked like this. Oh...there is one OTHER thing....didn't I read somewhere a threat of a big-time suit to be launched agaist Merrill? If true it coming at such a time amounts to a perfect storm doesn't it?
Bid $12.06. Total collapse. I suspect we're going to see the Pooch hit a new intrayear low from here.....probably by end of week so long as this keeps up...
Here we go....are you holding on to the porcelain rim? Bid $12.11 and collapsing...the Pooch ain't even putting up a fight...he's dead....(for now).
Bid $12.13. There are times in this game when a pps bears no relationship to the valuation assigned it by market forces. Either good (valuation) or bad. BAC is, right now, an example of the latter course of action a market pursues. It's emotional, hence entirely irrational...and it will pass. But for now all bets are off as to where this thing ultimately ends up....