Yah....from what I've been reading the Chinese authorities were pullying plays from our very own 1929 "play-book" in attempting to staunch the bleeding. It's really unbelievable what's going on over there....their market has lost something like $3 Trillion large in less than a month!? Mostly due to the naive use of margin by newbie investor types. Again...pretty much like the U.S. circa 1929. I don't know the truth of any of this, of course, but....even so...me thinks their problems are not solved just because Shanghai closed "not too badly."
Gonna be an interesting week this week is. Me thinks we're building to some sort of crescendo....
Let's see....bid $16.83.
LOL! Hey....no different from me. I'm just playing the endless number of FUD-inspired trades this thing keeps permitting. I daresay I'm not alone in this. It's really incredible so many educated, supposedly intelligent, folks are allowing this weee tempest to keeping going on and on and on and on. As I've maintained for some time I suspect this "we've solved it! Ooops no we haven't. Yes, now we HAVE solved it! Errr....mis-spoke no we haven't. Hold on NOW we have...." back and forth and on and on is being "sponsored" by those whose self-interest is best served in never ending continuation of the drama.
But I can't solve, nor stop, it. However, I CAN, and AM, playing along with the rhythm to maximize my own self-interest. This being the name of the game,, eh?
Let's see how it goes this week.
YANK at open to ~$16.71. My low-ball buy side wave got hit just off that line so I'm back in with an initial tranche at the level. I'm waving another one a bit south of $16.50....the probability is low it gets hit....but with all the unrelated FUD opening up the tactical buy side game here, and everywhere else....well...ya never know. Let's see how it goes from here.
Bid $$16.74. So far the usual tactical sell side game ain't exactly manifesting....so the yank seems more FUD induced than anything else.....looks like both sides are standing around letting the amateurs do the reacting? At least...so far....we'll see how long that plays out...
Greeks are stupid. Chinese are stupid. Puerto Ricans are stupid. Icelanders are stupid. The Irish are drunk and stupid. Spain is problematic. Matter of fact...everyone is stupid except me and you....and somethings I wonder about you....
No criticism juuuust sayin'. Heh!
Granted this downward sweep is (probably) stemming from the exogenous event known as Greece....if not the completion melt-down of the Chinese market..but it's hard to see any yankage as being anything other than a gift if your attention span is any longer than a cyber second.
But for now the pressure is obvious. If $16.80 area breaks then the next support area is ~$16.65. But again...none of this action is a reflection on the underlying merits (or lack thereof) of BAC....it's all exogenous...and exogenous events come; exogenous events go. The key is being able to maximize your own self-interest during them. Let's see how it plays out.
Bid now $16.82.
Well....this referendum, which is really nothing more than a public opinion poll, solves nothing. Neither would have a yes, either. So another week of chaos sets up. More (trading opportunities). Greece actually doesn't concern me too much. To me it's the tail wagging the dog, and far too much attention is being paid to them. Folks should be looking over at the Asia Pac rim arena. China's markets have lost over 3 TRILLION in something like a month! 3 TRILLION. Think about THAT for a second. 'Course...their markets had also doubled in the last year so some giveback was to be expected. But jeeezus..... In any case it looks like they're having their version of our (U.S.) 1929 era. That's gonna have ripple out effects hands down bigger than Greece.
In any case a new week is here....Dow futures down over 220pts currently...but there's all night to see how it actually plays out. I hope folks kept dry powder at hand. Looks like you're gonna be presented with ample opportunities to deploy it (tactically).
Oh...forgot...about your sheckles question....how much? I dunno...but if that mentioned downtrend/uptrend area of converge at ~$17.85 holds....and so far with the bid now at $16.99....it appears to be doing just that...I'd say a bounce back to the $17.20/.25 zone is probable. That would be back to (yet another - heh) downtrend line that stems from the ~$17.64 June 11, 2015 time. It sits right smack in that zone...so I'd be looking for the bid to gravitate to it by way of testing a reversal of current (down) trend.
But all of the above is one hell of a WAG and presume no "nuclear" exogenous events hammering things into the cellar market-wide....I rate that possibility as diminishingly small.....but not so small you can ignore the possibility....in other words...whatever tactic gambit you've set in place, leave yerself some "dry powder" juuuuust in case...
That's it for me!
If'n yer comfy with your gains as stated then why put any of it at risk going into a problematic (Greece) week-end? That's one stance.
Another one is...hey...this thing is well over-sold so why not go back in "halfies" on the size you might ordinarily deploy. Halfies being at the ~$16.90 area..depending on your risk profile. Then you wait on Monday to see how this so-called referendum plays out....amongst other things. This is my stance as a "player/trader."
But....I only do this because I can watch this thing tick to tick, from the Universe of the trader. It ain't everyone's cup of tea. We know this thing never runs away, in either direction. We know it's a HFT chug and churn darlin'...so if you can't watch it to play cheapies tick by tick then....well....leave well enough be there's always next week?
How's all of THAT (the above) for circular logic, eh? Heh.
Have a good holiday! (Oh..on an OT note....MU? Hope you saw some of my prior session thoughts on that one? ;-) )
Nest (and rpfla): I agree...but I'm patient and in no hurry since this equity never, ever, gives on the impression it's about to moon launch. And so long as the sell side tactical game stays "on" then I'm not inclined to buy in...though...south of .90 I will be buying...
Right now the ask keeps feinting from ~.92 to ~.94 trying to crank up the volume on the buy side. In other words..trying to entice buying. And there IS a modicum increase...but the ask just refills until the bid fails and another backwards step in the reverse Texas Two Step dance occurs.
And just like that bid broke to .89. Let's see if .85 is the target...
Here's a datum. Pull up an intraday 30minute chart....volume so far today is+39M shares. Of that amount ~35M shares have been selling. This goes far in explaining the pressure that's being applied by that tactical game. All the TA is shrieking oversold oversold oversold here. But nothing says it can't become even more so. Bottom line? If you're playing the tactical buy side game then you can't execute until the set-up says to...and for now part of that set-up is a clear indication that the ask "tell," as expressed by the sell side tactical game, has changed.
Yes, it is. But bid is at $16.91 and the sell side tactical game is STILL being run. (Watch the way the show on the ask continues to act as an overhang for the "tell" in this).
Looks like the intent is to take the bid south of $16.90....again. This will make the 3rd time in four sessions the area - that being ~$16.85 (as support) - is being tested. It's also where I've got an intermediate term uptrend line. If 3rd time is the charm breaks that line then that puts....the ~$16.45 area on the table as the next downside target. Or some aspect of the range from there to $16.85.
Why ~$16.45? Simple. On my chart it's where the downtrend line sits that I've had in place since the ~$17.75 area established back March 20, 2014. And if Master does it...shoves the Pooch's nose south of ~$16.85 I will have to seriously consider running a tactical short play because it'll be clear the sell side team has control and wants the pps....oops....PPS (hat-tip to Equitie)....lower.
All just a 2pennies worth of WAG thoughts as I kick-back with a beverage....
Equitie: Hmmmm.....interesting...the deliberate aspect of your comment pretty much matches my gut impression watching the real-time intraday. It's patient; concerted, and no different from any other time the sell side is running a tactical game. There are certain...characteristics....expressed by systems when they do so. The same can be said when the buy side game is being run. All machine oriented and dominated, which of course is the nature of today's game. The earnings comment is particularly interesting...but what're the odds they'll come out with glorious numbers (hyperbole, but you get the drift?)...only to have Greece, PR AND China implode at the same time resulting in a great, marketwide, sucking sound as everything goes down the drain? Now that's drama, I'll admit...but sometimes it seems this equity gets hit with things like this more than the usual...
As for proper English...HA! I don't go near my 6th grade English teachers grave for fear of seeing how badly mangled the earth is due to her rolling over (doing back-flips, actually) in her grave over my never ending mauling of my native language. If alive it'd probably drive her to tears.... ;-)
Bid $17.05 and catching an upside pulse....maybe...maybe...Nest is right? Let's seeee...
I'm counting on the low being below your $16.99. ;-) I think, leaving aside Greece, the media chatterboxes are influencing some of this. How so? More and more they're leading with "no rate increases this year! Probably none until well into 2016!" Course...there's no way to know the truth of this...but in this game perception is everything...and if that's the impression.....well...."I'll come back to this table when there's cause for interest (no pun intended)." Maybe?
Bid now $17.02...
Sell side dominating the action with the buy side mostly picking up cheapies as the selling shoves the bid south. Volume at 15.5M is running hot and above average. Looks like set-ups are being executed ahead of the long week-end, to say nothing of a certain upcoming Sunday referendum by the tail that's been wagging the global economic dog of late. It is what it is..
I lay better than average odds Master takes Pooch south of $17 so I've lowered my bid from $17.05 to mid $16.90's...bid is now hitting the $17.05 line and I fully expect it to go lower because...well..did I mention referendum? Or the fact that the intraday action is showing little supportive buying but rather scooping up on the cheap when cheap occurs? Bid now $17.04.
Nah...I'm not overly concerned about Greece either (in case it wasn't already obvious). But I have to allow its FUD will have its way with the markets regardless what I think.
I just wish the media would shut the...ahem....up with the melodrama and just wait on some results. But that's not their nature is it? I tell you what....we Capitalists...as expressed by the media....are a remarkably twitchy lot ain't we? Given this it continually amazes me how we, again and again and again, paint ourselves into these situations. You'd think we'd learn some lessons. An external observer couldn't be faulted for concluding that, as a group, Capitalists and such are none too bright....
So it goes. Bid $17.09.
Yah...I'm gonna be OUT of here shortly (no pun intended). More or less just checking in since, as you infer, today's a throw-away day. The only aspect to it that makes things a bit more twitchy that you'd ordinarily expect is......do I even NEED to tell you? Greece and the upcoming referendum over this week-end. I'm sure the big boy/girls will be a bit more risk averse today ahead of the long week-end (here in the U.S.); which should be expressed in a bit more than the usual roiling.....
As for Greece...I dunno....the media have been in over-drive on this for so long they're now, for me, the little boy crying wolf....the drone and din of all of it has receded into back-ground noise. Kind's sort'a...."Yeah, yeah...call me when it's actually been RESOLVED." Because at this point there's just more can kicking (down the road) ahead....as much as I hate to think this I'm sure Greece will be a topic of conversation well into 2016.
BAC bid $17.10. I shifted my $17.05 bid down a bit south of $17 as I expect the System Lords will work the bid down that way in light of what I mentioned above. Indeed...they just spiked the bid to $17.07.
The left wingers are (so is said) destroying the country economically and fiscally. The right wingers are destroying the country (so is said) ecologically and environmentally. All of it because politicians promise too much, lenders ignore and exploit risk too much, and people want too much. This is really the truth of it. As an average person it's called being caught between a rock and a very hard place.
And that's all I have to say about that. Bid $17.10 and Master is playing with shoving the Pooch's nose lower...
Bid now back at $17.10. Glad to see Master remains so...predictable? Come on Master..hit my bit sitting down there around $17.05...I know you want to close the opening upside gap. Come on...I know you do. Just go ahead...don't be coy...to quote an old Nike campaign slogan...just DO IT! ;-)
LOL! Guess I stand corrected on that Greek size. Can I plead typo? After all...if Guberment and Corp circles can get away with such ooopsies well...it IS just little 'ol me. ;-) Anyway....I split the difference on Masters current walk-back of the BAC Pooch and re-entered at ~$17.14. And I'll be more than happy to add should Master keep going south....
Closed my NBG at ~$1.21. Too much "bird-in-hand" to ignore. But as we discussed earlier I've full faith in the feed/bite/feed/bite/feed/bite" pattern of Merkel/et.al. It's been clearly evident (to me) the past month or so. Somebody is making some major coin on maximizing the continuance of said pattern is all I can think. So I play along.....I'm now waiting on the next "bite" flowing out of the media orifices to reset another bid....
But speaking of channel/churn....BAC bid $17.22. I've full faith Master is setting up to take the Pooch back south again, too. So I've run down and opened a low-ball bid just a wee bit south of $17.10. I only give a 50/50 probability on this actually getting hit but....hey...yah gotta play it to....win it? ;-)