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Sapient Corp. Message Board

hildebrandt3 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 26, 2015 12:35 PM Member since: Jun 9, 2008
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  • Here are results from the Company’s executive compensation (the “say-on-pay” vote).

    FOR 5,095,010

    AGAINST 6,191,792

    ABSTAIN 43,628

    BROKER NON-VOTES 2,149,594

    More shareholder votes declined the proposal than the number approving the proposal. A clear signal that the multimillion dollar compensation is excessive.

  • Reply to

    China factor

    by coolguy7612 Jun 25, 2015 6:25 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 Jun 25, 2015 7:18 PM Flag

    Aluminum is not even close to a rare earth metal. This is a totally different situation.

  • Reply to

    18$ fair value

    by stonetech Jun 18, 2015 10:51 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 Jun 22, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    Chinese suppliers excellent at playing the short game. When discovered, the Chinese factory turns around and suggests, “But you signed off on the original production sample yourselves” or the factory claims that the importer has been making up the story in order to lower import costs. Arguments like these work in the short term. Over the longer term, however, importers get wise, and alternative markets start to look increasingly attractive. There is no court system in China a law-abiding American company to enforce a contract disagreement. Recent accusations of unreliability in Chinese products are now being met with tit-for-tat claims that U.S. products are faulty. This is an unfortunate strategy for China, and it means that we will continue to see quality problems. China will not be able to succeed so long as manufacturers are competing in a race to the bottom.
    This is from an article that appeard in Forbes by Paul Midler, founder and president of China Advantage, a services firm that provides outsourcing and supply chain management to U.S. and European companies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    18$ fair value

    by stonetech Jun 18, 2015 10:51 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 Jun 22, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    One of the problems facing China is that manufacturers continue to engage in a practice I call “quality fade.” This is the deliberate and secret habit of widening profit margins through a reduction in the quality of materials. Importers usually never notice what’s happening; downward changes are subtle but progressive. The initial production sample is fine, but with each successive production run, a bit more of the necessary inputs are missing.
    Some quality issues are not all that serious, but others are downright frightening. One of the most disturbing examples I have encountered while working in China involved the manufacture and importation of aluminum systems used to construct high-rise commercial buildings. These are the systems that support tons of concrete as it is being poured, and their general stability is critical.
    The American company that designed and patented the system engineered all key components. It knew exactly how much each part was supposed to weigh, and yet the level of engineering sophistication did not stop the supplier from making a unilateral decision to reduce the specifications. When the “production error” was caught, one aluminum part was found to be weighing less than 90% of its intended weight.
    Where did the missing aluminum go? Into the factory owner’s pocket as a cost saving. The only thing passed on to the customer was an increase in product risk. Quality fade is like the straw that broke the camel’s back–only in reverse. Suppliers push the limit by taking more and more out of the equation until they are caught, or until disaster strikes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    18$ fair value

    by stonetech Jun 18, 2015 10:51 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 Jun 22, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    Glencore will buy everything that CENX can make. Do your own due diligence. Chinese aluminum is cheap brittle #$%$. CENX is undervalued.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Aluminum Prices Continue to Fall

    by arielsquarefour Jun 16, 2015 10:57 AM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 Jun 18, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Energy prices are lower this year than during the prior year. Have you taken that into account?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 Jun 11, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    You may be waiting awhile for CENX to get to that low, so I would suggest an aluminum wheelbarrow -- a steel one would rust all the way through within that time frame.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Projections of HNRG

    by hildebrandt3 Jun 2, 2015 6:53 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 Jun 2, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    Given this growth and the strong financials, HNRG would be reasonably and very conservatively valued at 8x annual net income + 0.8x net tangible assets = 10x 30 million + 0.8x 200 million = 460 million. With only 29 million shares out this comes to $15.86 per share. It is very likely it will be higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hildebrandt3 by hildebrandt3 Jun 2, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    HNRG is going to have annual revenue of 400 million for the first time this year. The company will have over 200 million in net tangible assets. They are going to have over 30 million in net income.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Valuation of Support

    by hildebrandt3 May 29, 2015 1:38 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 May 29, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Margins are also falling and SPRT doesn't have a near term plan to maintain them. The talk of IoT is far away and unlikely to result in increased margins. Worst of all, the company is giving management huge incentive bonuses based on hitting targets of NEGATIVE non GAAP income. I would not be surprised to see the stock price fall to $1.10 this year. The trend is likely not your friend in SPRT. They will lose $20 million over the next 3 years and will have 20% more shares. I could easily see the stock at $0.85 in 3 yrs. Shareholders should not stand for this. Their interest should be better represented or they should exit. Do your own due diligence.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Valuation of Support

    by hildebrandt3 May 29, 2015 1:38 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 May 29, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    Management doesn't feel any sense of urgency. The $2 million woman is not going to save it. They are getting their comfortable paychecks. Take a look at the proxy; she got $1.9 million in compensation over the past year alone. They are far too comfortable with that strong balance sheet and are milking it. The are currently 77.4 million in net tangible assets, but it will not be there forever. Potential investors will see the pps is almost equal to tangible net assets, true, but tangible net assets are shrinking. The business with Comcast is fading as Comcast expects to reduce the amount they pay this company. SPRT's main source of revenue is proving gateway WiFi support which is not a growing business.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Valuation of Support

    by hildebrandt3 May 29, 2015 1:38 PM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 May 29, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    Margins are falling as operating costs and fixed costs climb. Management will tell you they are following a process to grow the company into a software as a service company, but they are showing very little progress, and say evidence of progress will take 3-5 years. This is not going to turn around soon. The drop in price has come on strongly because of the poor plan. The stock has dropped by 70 percent in the past 18 months. The drop is going to come on even stronger as the investors see this as a huge tax selling opportunity, later this year.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • hildebrandt3 by hildebrandt3 May 29, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    I have been looking deeply into Support lately. This is a company with a great balance sheet, with lots of cash. Unfortunately, the good ends there. Revenue is flat.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Today DGTC posted new results. Shareholder equity has increased to $59.3 million. Number of shares outstanding has been nearly constant, reported at 3.098 million share. This leads to book value of $19.14 per share. Book value per share has risen.
    The company is now starting a share buyback: On May 28, 2015, the Board of Directors of the company approved a repurchase of the company's common stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 May 26, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    Enterprise value is only 22 million. If they can earn 1 million per quarter (which they are now doing), the enterprise value will very likely more than double from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hildebrandt3 by hildebrandt3 May 8, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    NATR appears to have turned the corner. Shareholder equity is up, profit is higher than in the most recent 3 quarters. Net income from continuing operations was $4.2 million, or $0.23 per diluted common share. This is a strong beat above analyst consensus. Look for stock price to recover somewhat and continue rising.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Excellent! TA blew away the analysts’ EPS estimate. Consensus estimate was for $0.23 per share. TA just posted $0.41 per share. That is a +78% beat! This is due to improvement in margins from fuel and from consumable items. The margin improvement is the main thing that TA needed. I am very bullish based on the new numbers and am revising my target pps upward. TA has improved their sites and increased the number of sites, and these have both contributed to stronger bottom line for shareholders. I see the stock headed to $25 per share over the next few months. Beautiful financials!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 May 6, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    Excellent! Very strong profit. Perion beat non-GAAP net Income analysts’ estimates and my estimate. They were spot on with my $52 million revenue estimate. Perion is getting strong cash flow from operations. As expected, their search revenue will come down slightly in the next quarter. The CEO also said revenue will level off in the third quarter and then the company expects to return to growth in the fourth quarter. These are excellent numbers. Outstanding shares went up slightly slower than I expected. The company has a beautiful balance sheet. At $30 million in non-GAAP net income per year, PERI is intrinsically worth $500 million or over $7 per share. Beautifully undervalued!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • hildebrandt3 by hildebrandt3 May 6, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    WMC had Non-GAAP income $42.2 million for the quarter. Love those profits and love that dividend.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings, etc

    by longtermstocksniffer May 4, 2015 10:42 AM
    hildebrandt3 hildebrandt3 May 4, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Excellent. Revenue is better than expectations and more profits rolled in for PETS. It is great to see this company trading under $22 per share. It won't be down here for very long.
    PETS posted $11 million in cash flow from operations for the latest quarter. Excellent!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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