...if we get a resumption of the "new normal" then maybe! I'm with you though, I hope we see around 21M in rev.
I've been wondering the same thing pancakes...
I believe it's due to traders who short in the morning, cover their position same day with legit shares hitting the bid; downtrend continues because there are no real buyers hitting the ask. I think this is why we have seen many consecutive candles with realbodies around the upper half of the day's range...so 1/2 or more of the range is the shadow or tail.
Gam, I totally agree with the business aspects you pointed out, which are most important long term. But the stock price should not be able to be manipulated so easily by the marginal buyer and seller. The "marginal buyer and seller" has knocked 50% market-cap off this dream company and with decent volume. I have no doubt that it will be marched right back up as I think funds looking who missed the first bout of SILC success might be part of this decline, in addition to the Harry Boxer's (who supposedly close their short positions each day), but that's just me.
Thanks for posting here...your insights are always well received.
Yes, at this point even a large miss would not justify the stock price, IMHO. I believe this is a combination of daily shorts (evidenced by consistent shadows on candle chart), a lack of institutional sponsorship, and finally real shareholders dumping stock as a result of the dynamic created by the vacuum effect of the first two variables. I personally do not believe this is going to be a disastrous quarter.
A dog with fleas bud...
Kidding aside, no one knows anything about client's appetite for product. They didn't going into Q4 and they don't now. Don't let posters tell you that the stock price is indicative of client's "yawning" at SILC product line...that is unfounded.
Now back to complaining about the stock price...because it is ridiculous down here. What's the PEG now?
I've been following this company on every CC since 2010 and I've never experienced anything remotely resembling a shady comment or action. In fact, it's just the opposite: extremely conservative in forecasting, but rightly confident (in retrospect) in the products, pipeline, and customer relationships. As Gam65 suggested in a recent post, this stock continuously "surprises" on earnings, so I don't think he is allowing anything to leak either.
So when there was some hint in the Q4 call (January) that they have established a new normal, I think they meant it. While the stock got hammered after Q1 and the shelf, they still posted their best first quarter performance ever. They are still growing at a phenomenal rate when you look at the numbers they've been posting (year over year comparisons), which is why I find the lack of premium in this stock maddening.
The one thing they don't do very well in my opinion is promote the stock; they seem fine with the huge volatility. I question the shelf offering if they don't have any immediate prospects to acquire or be acquired, and I really doubt the latter will happen before the former. They certainly don't need the cash, so it's not that. The reason I'm shaking my head is one, due to the timing of what is always the weakest quarter of the year, and two, they have been "looking" for an acquisition for the whole time I've been listening to CCs, and with a shelf-offering life of two years, I'm not sure what's out there that is yet to be discovered while M&As are taking place left and right, and they said something along the lines of having no plans on the April CC.
Either way, the stock price having almost dropped to Q3 2013 announcement levels is totally irrational.
I hope that's helpful. Have a good weekend everyone.
I don't think it went too far with the growth rates it was posting. It seemed to go up too fast because it wasn't fairly valued to begin with. People just don't get the potential we are actually witnessing...it's not like its a big dream at this point. It's happening.
He doesn't care about the stock price, so he says. No one was complaining when the price was high, he said. I think the company is great, and the stock is a buy, but management really botched this! A 100% retrace from pre q4 levels.
As of June 13th the short interest has gone back down to 78k shares, which is equivalent to the front half of April. Even with legitimate covering there was no benefit to the stock price this time around, in fact the stock fell six days in a row before the settlement date.
Volume upticks last week and formulaic daily price action show someone wants shares. (Knock it down in the morning and scoop up what you can.) Look at a minute chart for the past week. All the significant trades happen after the stock is knocked down on 2000 shares.
Maybe they are announcing another shelf-offering...haha.
If that were true you would see the opposite happening with the stock price before earnings. They'd keep it as high as possible to get out/initiate short positions...not drop it a month before earnings.
Sales have peaked? Where are you getting your information? I would say we can conclude sales have peaked when the TTM EPS starts to drop, which hasn't happened since Q3 of 2009.
Priced for a disappointing quarter...who knows, as I'm sure there has been legitimate towel throwing over the past few months. But there's still a month of trading to go before earnings.
Call me crazy but I'm adding here.
Turb, what constitutes a large enough swing for you? I assume you're not sitting on the sidelines with SILC, so you're talking about extra curricular trading?