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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

hipache 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 9, 2016 3:19 PM Member since: Jan 7, 2008
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    Sales growth in Q4?

    by somuchforyouz Feb 9, 2016 9:58 AM
    hipache hipache Feb 9, 2016 3:19 PM Flag

    Management seems finally to have gotten a strategy. They can only have achieved growth in Q4 via the OEM business, but that is OK.

    I actually think the new investor presentation is pretty encouraging and where last week, this was really only a spec play based on FDA, it's now setting up to be quite a nice story for 2016 with those additional OEM customers.

    If one of them happened to be MDT or JNJ/DePuy/Synthes, this would double pretty fast (except that frankly, the OEM deals will all be contingent on FDA approval of the composite device). The big guys just don't need the regular cages.

  • hipache hipache Feb 4, 2016 6:26 PM Flag

    Have you read that they already have 11 Silicon Nitride devices on the market and that sales have gone backwards 18% in each of the last 3 quarters because their metal stuff stinks?

    The composite spacer is a good bit better but it won't ping this up like it was a drug approval.

  • hipache hipache Feb 4, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    If you've done your DD, you'' know that sales are declining at about 18% each quarter because the "metal work" that AMDA can sell with its SiNi spacers is not market competitive.

    Having a better spacer approved by FDA is not really going to change that fact - so end user sales will continue to suck.

    Today's value is about 1.5x sales. Pretty good for a company with sales decline.

    Upside case? A couple of better OEM contracts for the new spacer, but at much lower than end user prices of course. Still not worthy of the $50 million valuation your $5 calls for.

    Best case: someone buys the company and that would not be for less than $100 million.

    The hip ball is probably worth more than that if it could get through FDA.

  • hipache by hipache Feb 2, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    I actually see more potential upside for AMDA from hip balls than from spinal cages.

    The major players in the hip market would LOVE for someone to come along and challenge the monopolistic supplier, Ceramtec and ceramic balls are 40% of a 400,000 unit US market and growing.

    I could see a ZBH, JNJ, SYK or SNN taking out AMDA just for hips balls and the spine stuff would just be a minor bonus.

    I wish I could trade options on this play instead of having to do my own leverage.

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