Wonder how much these regular joe's writing their opinions on Seeking alpha make every time we click on it or comment on the article? A penny? A nickel?
Agree I expect capital for natural gas drilling to be hard to come by till prices come way up. Previously they had floods of speculative cash, the returns aren't coming back so that is going to disappear. You might say they had the Amazon mentality, hoping to profit on volume if they could just drill enough and (using bait & switch) get a lot of generation switch over to gas just in time for the next upswing in prices. Its like an introductory rate on credit carts and the "this time is different" story, saying gas will stay low forever. They won't.
What coal price are you referring to, Australian thermal? Take a look at U.S. PRB coal prices as well they are in the $8-$14 range historically.
Both the media and industry insiders seemed to think it was essential for coal that Republicans control both houses. Now that they do, where and when is the benefit? And what will that benefit be? I'm not seeing it yet....
dh, you forgot to list the election of a Republican majority in both houses. A lot of people felt that was important to happen for coal stocks back in November. They're now in office and hopefully doing what was expected.
In my opinion, in the short term, #6 in your list is most important. If met coal prices see some major supply decisions or interruptions and become volatile, so will BTU earnings. Taxes will be benefits the first half of the year, lease payments are all in the 2nd half of the year so (along with your point #1), cashflow will likely be very generous the first half.
I don't see why we wouldn't be back to $10 in the next couple months, it was $10 just this past November and nothing has changed in the outlook. Just a dividend cut, which is actually favorable in the short term for balance sheet strength.
No but I think bellard's brain cells might be dying from some sort of smoke. He does live in Colorado...
Ford, you mean bellard is still around? Had him on ignore for quite a while now.... I never found him either enlightening or entertaining. He just likes to needle longs with self-conflicting data and irrational beliefs of solar-powered world. I guess it would be dark and quiet at night though.
"History, Did you add at $5.99?"
Yes I had a GTC buy order in it filled Wednesday. There was noting disappointing in that report, in fact that $1.26 SHOULD have been a one-time charge and EPS would have been green!!! Total conservative B.S.
Starting next year cashflow & earnings potential is huge due to expiration of lease payments, expiring hedges on fuel & FEX's, and most importantly, higher Aus coal prices.
Blackrock doubled their position in Q4, there was a 13G came out yesterday. There should be a lot more 13G's coming out soon it will be interesting to see who has done what with their holdings. If I'm an idiot for buying more here, so are they!
Sales are 4X Market Cap. For largest miner of the largest global electric energy source? Price won't stay this low for long no. By the way, Soros did have a position in BTU for a while, right before the 2008 elections. He must have bought the idea that Republicans would win that year.
Correction, Glencore not BHP:
Glencore, the global trading and mining company, said on Wednesday it is considering closing a number of its coal operations in South Africa in a move that would reduce its overall production in the country by at least 5m saleable tonnes per year.
The group said it had conducted a detailed review of its Optimum Coal Mines subsidiary, because of "difficult market conditions and the continued deterioration in the export coal price", reports the FT's Andrew England in Johannesburg
It added that it had already informed South Africa's Department of Mineral Resources and unions about the potential closures.
Optimum produces about 10mt of coal per annum, half of which goes to export, with the other half going to Eskom, South Africa's state power utility.
The closure of the operations would affect about 1,070 jobs and would be another blow to South Africa's ailing economy and the government as it battles high unemployment and rampant poverty.
Matter of fact U.S. coal prices have already turned up. 50% above the 2012 low.
As for Australia ..... I think widespread shut-ins of higher cost coal mines are imminent, and sooner rather than later. This will bring prices up. BHP talked about shuttering a very large African mine recently.
DH, there seems to be an impression that coal stocks go the same direction as oil stocks. However in the conference call they indicated that low oil prices are good for coal earnings on a number of fronts. There is actually very little ill effect on coal from low oil prices its all good. I'm pretty sure you're relatively new to the BTU message board but in the past many of the reasons discussed were lower railroad fuel surcharges for shipping coal; lower mining equipment operating costs (diesel fuel); less associated natural gas production if oil production is down; and the resulting global economic stimulus of low oil prices. Lower gas production should result in higher gas prices for a fuel which is coal's competitor.
That being said, its possible that commodity stocks all move the same direction in the short term. As long as its up, even if coincidence, I'm all for it!!
And, how does anybody have a clue what to assume in the Guidance for 2015 Q1 Income taxes? Income taxes are the elephant in the room in recent quarters, its all over the place and no guidance is given.
Just for perspective, in 2010 when EPS was over $2/share, and share price was over $60.
They paid $307M in income taxes ($1.14/share) for the whole year.
And now just in Q4 alone after a string of quarterly losses we're hit with $169M in taxes? As General Patton would have said, "Goddamnit!!"
In Q4 reported today for example; income tax provision/charges were $169M, that's $0.65/share!
I'm no accountant, can somebody explain to me how a company that showed Net Losses in each of the past 4 quarters, particularly Q4, can have Income Tax due of over $200M, or $0.75/share? In my world, typically taxes due are a portion of business profits, not losses.
Time to move to the Cayman Islands maybe?
You're right there was a 6-month extension of Chairman role into 2016 but not CEO.
Dated May 2014:
Peabody Energy has extended its chief executive’s employment contract by six months, keeping Gregory Boyce as head of the St. Louis coal company until June 30, 2015.
Boyce, chairman and CEO of the largest private-sector coal company in the world, had been scheduled to step down as chief executive at the end of this year.
Peabody last year tapped Glenn Kellow, a former mining executive with BHP Billiton in Australia, as its new president and chief operating officer. He recently took over corporate strategy, global analytics and business development in addition to his responsibilities overseeing worldwide sales and trading.
“We appreciate the ongoing veteran leadership of Mr. Boyce, and look forward to the continued success of President and Chief Operating Officer Glenn Kellow following a recent significant increase in his responsibilities," Peabody director Robert A. Malone said in a statement.
Boyce’s contract to remain as executive chairman on the company’s board was also extended by six months, to June 30 2016.